Bayern will take risks, PSG will play number two
At the Parc des Princes, the German champion will celebrate a prominent football anniversary - he will play the hundredth knockout round match of the most prestigious European club tournament.
In the history of the Champions League, Bayern Munich will be only the second team to conquer the line.
True, not all of Hans-Dieter Flick's wards will fully share the joy of achievement.
On Monday, there were 12 people on the list of injured, recovering or being monitored by doctors.
Including key forward Robert Lewandowski, important central defenders Jerome Boateng and Niklas Züle, attacking midfielders Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman, versatile Coranten Tolisso, and Leon Goretzka.
The latter, although he was used to working closer to the center line, during the past week often played the role of a forward, which rams the building of opponents from deep within.
And it was the connections of the latter that surprised the PSG defense so much that the French missed twice in the first match of the quarterfinals.
And even though they scored three themselves, they certainly did not guarantee themselves a quiet life at the Parc des Princes.
After all, from the same Goretzka, like all his partners in the attack group, one could expect anything during a visit to Paris.
And while the fans have hopes that at least one of them will still be able to play.
Otherwise, Bayern will not be as scary as before.
It was in their home arena that the depth of the squad allowed Flick's team to painlessly survive the absence of the top scorer: even without Lewandowski, Munich struck 31 shots on target in the evening (they hadn't watered the Parisian gates so much since the 2003/04 season), taking advantage of the opponent's low line of defense.
And if the owners were less wasteful, they would definitely have punished Neymar and Kilian Mbappe for being lazy when doing rough work without the ball.
And the absence of Marco Verratti at PSG would have turned to their advantage with much greater efficiency ...
However, the subjunctive mood did not even bring a draw to the plenipotentiary holder of the Champions League title.
In the return meeting, they will have even more difficult, because personnel losses have affected the entire central axis.
And if during the home match the exit on the left flank of Luca Hernandez with the transfer of David Alaba to the support zone by his partner Yosua Kimmichu worked brilliantly, now there is no resource for such maneuvers.
And what Bayern Munich is with a shortage of performers, the public saw in Saturday's Bundesliga match against Berlin's Union.
Flick's tank-all-terrain vehicle made only two "shots" into the wrong target, did not keep the minimum success in the 86th minute and parted with an opponent who had won only once in the last five matches.
For Parisians, such news is a balm for the soul.
After all, after them, Bayern looks not as scary as its series of 17 away matches of the Germans without failures in the Champions League.
It is curious that at the Parc des Princes Munich invariably passed, although four times instead of defeats they could get a more decent result.
However, at the stadium in the capital of France, the German grand won only the European Cup - 1975, and even then against the English Leeds.
Now the winner of Ligue 1 is much stronger than his predecessors, which has crushed Bayern in the past.
It was enough to look at how easily the team of Mauricio Pochettino defeated Strasbourg on Saturday (4: 1) to understand the real power of the team.
And if Verratti also returns to duty, then this force can really be multiplied by one and a half - after a covid quarantine, Marco trains for only a few days.
There is no doubt that Pochettino will draw conclusions from the results of the first match.
Surely, the line of defense will become higher.
And the delivery of balls to Mbappe will be adjusted, because Kilian scored in the starting 20 minutes of the game in three of the last four games of the team.
A quick goal is not only a groundwork for an overall victory, but also a good opportunity to switch to a counter-attacking model of the game.
In the Munich meeting, she limped at a number of moments due to the absence of Marquinhos in the center.
But over the past week, Pochettinno worked on this element as carefully as possible.
“I am convinced that anything can happen,” the PSG head coach confirmed at the conference before the match.
- Bayern are the best club in the world at the moment.
I treat my opponent with great respect.
At the same time, we are confident in our own strengths.
We understand perfectly well that we need to tune in to victory and try to achieve it. "
Porto hope for a miracle, Chelsea believe in their defense
Since 2014, Chelsea London have not made it to the semifinals of the tournament.
The victory over Porto a week ago (2: 0) brought Tomas Tuchel's team closer to the goal.
And at the same time helped to extend the streak without failures in the tournament to nine meetings.
In order to completely protect themselves from unpleasant surprises, the British need to excel before their opponent in the return match.
Indeed, in the knockout rounds of the League, the Blues have avoided failures for six meetings if they open an account.
Can the current squad be able to do this?
Rather yes than no.
Indeed, under Tuchel's leadership, Chelsea have lost only once in more than two months.
And a week ago, his line-up selection ensured Chelsea victory with goals from two Englishmen (Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell), which has not happened in the Champions League since March 2012.
Porto, of course, are not going to give up ahead of schedule, but against them not only the result of the first match, but also the statistics.
The failure at Ramon Sánchez Pizjuan a week earlier, where UEFA's decision will have to play a second meeting due to covid restrictions, turned out to be fifth in seven last matches against the British.
And each time they lost with a difference of at least two goals.
If we remember how the Portuguese have dropped out of various European cups the last four times after meeting with the British, then they will become quite sorry for them.
After all, the average difference between scored and missed for the southerners will be "-4".
Another sad tendency that predicts Porto an early end to the fight for the trophy is passive behavior after the break.
The Portuguese have not scored from the field after the 46th minute for the five Champions League matches in a row for the teams of the five leading championships.
This was partly due to the fact that there was not enough own strength to maintain the intensity of the opponent's actions.
Another reason is the straightforwardness of actions, to which the vis-a-vis have adapted.
After that, the most dangerous directions for the combinations of the southerners were blocked.
To be fair, in the first match of the quarterfinals, Sergio Conceizau's team tried to act as variably as possible.
Having chosen the basic 4-4-2 scheme, the Portuguese sent five and six people to the defense - exactly according to the achievements of "Atlético" Diego Simeone.
This helped keep Chelsea's possession sterile and minimized the number of dangerous British attacks.
Moreover, Porto even surpassed the competitors in shots - 12: 6.
Here are just individual mistakes of individual players canceled out the team efforts and turned into a "dry" defeat.
If you remember that two-thirds of the matches under Tuchel's leadership, Chelsea spent zero, then the mission of the southerners in the second leg of the quarterfinals can be called almost impossible.
Although the defeat of Londoners 2: 5 from West Brom last week leaves a hint of the possibility of a sensation in Seville.
The Portuguese mentor also hopes for her: “We have to solve the most difficult task.
But we came here precisely to do this.
In matches like this, you can pay a very high price if you rush forward with the whole team with the starting whistle.
It is necessary to play compactly and be a close-knit team.
It is necessary not only to score, but also to keep your own goal locked.
We played well in the first match, but far from perfect.
We will try to show even better team play in the return match ”.