Should Real Madrid and Manchester City tremble at the idea of ​​receiving Atalanta Bergamo and Mönchengladbach on Tuesday March 15 in the knockout stages of the Champions League?

The teams playing at home have been roughed up since the start of the knockout phase of the continental competition: only three wins and two draws in twelve games.

A statistic which can be explained in part by the closed session which prevents the European teams from benefiting from the support of their 12th man at home.

An unprecedented number of home losses

The first leg of the Champions League has, in fact, resulted in a record unheard of since the establishment of the round of 16 during the 2003-2004 season, according to the specialized site SoFoot.

FC Barcelona, ​​Sevilla FC, Atalanta Bergamo, Lazio de Rome, Mönchengladbach, Atlético Madrid and RB Leipzig (admittedly on neutral ground for the last three) all had to bow.

Only Porto gleaned a home victory.

Logical, given that the teams that came out first in their pool are supposed to face a club that finished second, therefore theoretically weaker, and only receive the return match.

But this number of away victories remains unprecedented in these proportions.

The return phase began under the same auspices: PSG hardly pulled off a draw at the Parc des Princes against Barça, the same thing for Borussia Dortmund against Sevilla FC.

Juventus obtained a victory with a more bitter taste: 3-2 after extra time against FC Porto, yet reduced to 10 for long minutes.

Only Liverpool did not tremble against Leipzig, but one could argue that their second leg, like their first leg, took place on neutral ground.

Last July, a mini-study published in the New York Times on the impact of the closed session on the Bundesliga already warned of a collapse in home victories during the resumption of the championship: it had fallen from 43 to 33% after the resumption of the championship.

New @CIES_Football Weekly Post ranks teams from 6⃣6⃣ top divisions worldwide according to% of home wins since the # Covid_19 pademic: empty stadiums does not affect @Atleti 💪;

@Glimt & @RangersFC 1⃣0⃣0⃣% wins without fans 😮 Full data ➡️ https://t.co/7yGyEdUSxU pic.twitter.com/r8lLH8eqgb

- CIES Football Obs (@CIES_Football) January 25, 2021

Figures published by the CIES (International Center for the Study of Sport) on January 25 tended to prove this first postulate.

The winning percentage at home, in the 66 European leagues, has increased from 45.1% between January 1, 2019 and March 31, 2020 to 42% between April 1, 2020 and January 18, 2021.

The lack of benchmarks of the players

Figures that prove the feelings of many players and coaches who often mention the absence of supporters.

"There, it is obvious, without the supporters, football sucks. We play matches, we are happy because it is our passion, but the fact of not being able to share that with the supporters, it kills football ", explained OM midfielder Valentin Rongier, after a defeat in the Champions League.

"This is no excuse for our game. But in my opinion the situation would have been different if the supporters had been there in the Champions League."

Valentin Rongier: "The lack of supporters is no excuse, but the packed Vélodrome gives us a lot of strength."

pic.twitter.com/BCSz0Uq3Ei

- BeFoot (@_BeFoot) January 29, 2021

"Several researchers have been interested in the supposed advantage of playing at home. Studies have shown that there is an increase in testosterone levels in rugby players playing at home, in particular linked to the defense of the territory against neighbors. during steeples ", explains Fabrice Dosseville, professor at the University of Caen Normandie in the UFR Staps (Sciences and techniques of physical and sports activities) and specialist in sports psychology, interviewed by France 24." On the other hand, if the presence of the public plays a role, it cannot be the only factor. "

"The advantage of playing at home is built on multiple factors. It is the force of habit: the fact of always having the same place in the locker room, of being in front of your home crowd and feeling pushed, d "to have faces known as his family in the public. Remove these elements from the welcoming team and the players are losing their bearings," theorizes the university.

To alleviate the sadness of an empty stadium, several clubs have opted for the installation of devices such as cardboard silhouettes, screens showing images of supporters or the broadcasting of soundscapes.

But not enough to put the player back in the mood, according to Fabrice Dosseville.

“Instead of having an empty stadium, we therefore have an empty stadium but with an overall atmosphere that makes it better for the broadcasters. The stadium and the atmosphere, however, continue to ring hollow for the players. 'real atmosphere' "to put the players in the right dynamic, he explains.

An advantage for visitors?

If the closed door is undeniably a loss for the home team, is it possible to extrapolate to say that the teams which travel now have the advantage in the meetings?

"For players who move, we go from the idea of ​​a hostile ground to that of a neutral ground. Some see an opportunity to be seized," said Fabrice Dosseville.

"I think we are more in a smoothing of the chances of the two teams rather than an advantage to those who move."

It remains to study the impact of this closed session on the 23rd protagonist of a match: the referee.

"high level, we must consider that the referee is a professional and that he is always neutral in a match. On the other hand, studies have shown that the presence of an audience can unconsciously have an impact on the referee and his decisions ", notes Fabrice Dosseville.

"As such, one could say that the camera allows the referee to be more focused on the game and avoid errors. However, the hypothesis is difficult to prove because the DTN of the referee does not communicate not on that. "

Finally, there remains the particular case of the Atlético Madrid club.

The Colchoneros, after losing their first leg on neutral ground - counted as played at home - will have to seek their qualification on the lawn of Chelsea who will play well at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday March 17th.

A break in sports fairness created by the upsurge of Covid-19 in Europe, and which proves that the competition has not finished surprising for this 2020-2021 edition. 

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