Golden Triangle: will CSKA render a service to Spartak in the fight against Zenit for the championship in the RPL

Even on the eve of the winter break in the championship, it was obvious that the match of the 23rd round of the RPL between CSKA and Zenit would most likely become one of the key ones in the struggle for gold medals.

The teams finished the first part of the season at the top of the standings, and the gap between them was only four points.

A confident victory over Spartak in December, coupled with a win-win streak of four meetings in the winter segment, gave fans hope that the Petersburgers would provide a solid lead in the face-to-face game with direct competitors, but everything turned out differently.

In 2021, Sergei Semak's wards look far from the best, and even four unanswered goals against Akhmat did not change this impression.

Do not overestimate Zenit's first victory in the spring segment.

The final result indicates the complete superiority of the hosts, but the game was not so simple.

The blue-white-blue played the first half unintelligibly and for a long time could not cope with the opponent's pressure.

Although they had a territorial advantage, most of the ball control was pretty sterile - no promotion.

This is confirmed by statistics, according to which only 28% of touches were made in the attacking third of the field.

For such a dominant team, this is extremely small.

Especially considering that she was far from being a grand one.

After the break, Zenit was transformed, and the miracle goal of Vyacheslav Karavaev and the controversial 11-meter one finally broke Grozny.

But even in this segment, the Petersburgers allowed a lot to the opponent in the attack.

This was not reflected in the expected goals (xG), of which Akhmat scored almost seven times less than the opponent (0.37 - 2.5), but there were plenty of approaches.

The guests very often created problems for the defenders and bothered Andrei Lunev.

In the second 45 minutes alone, they struck nine shots on goal, five of which were on target, and in total there were 14 (with nine on target).

For comparison, although Semak's wards beat more often, they got hit less often (15 - 8).

It should be noted that a year ago Zenit already experienced difficulties at the start of the spring segment.

Then everything developed according to a similar scenario: an unconvincing game and, as a result, zero draws with Lokomotiv and Ufa, and then inspiring success in the form of a crushing victory over Ural.

Then the Yekaterinburg team conceded seven goals, having managed to respond with only one precise blow.

And after that - departure to CSKA.

True, if in 2020 it was postponed to June due to the pandemic, now it will take place on time.

Taking this into account, it is possible that the current meeting may become one of the key ones in the fight for gold.

Then a crushing victory over a direct competitor allowed the Petersburgers not only to gain the most important three points, but also to finally feel confident in their abilities.

Subsequently, the blue-white-blue gave an unbeaten run of seven matches, in six of which they won.

At the same time, the feeling of deja vu is enhanced by the form in which CSKA players approach the most important game.

A year ago, they had only two points in their assets in three matches of the spring part (draws with Ural and Ufa), and this time - one more (victory over Akhmat).

But if then they lost only to Rostov, this time they lost to Lokomotiv and Arsenal.

The failure in Tula can be explained by bad luck and difficult weather conditions that did not allow the army team to demonstrate their class.

But a contender for the championship is unlikely to have the right to such excuses.

It should be noted that at the moment the army team seem to be much more ready for the match with the Petersburgers.

First, they approach him in the rank of the third team of the championship, which is dangerously close to the champion.

Failure will not deprive Zenit of the first line, but will allow the pursuers to reduce the handicap to a minimum and aggravate the fight for gold to the limit.

In this regard, it will be very interesting to follow the behavior of Semak, who has never found himself in a similar situation.

Both previous championships were given to him relatively easily, and seven rounds before the finish, the backlog was at least eight points.

Secondly, compared to last year, CSKA has no problems with a shortage of players.

If in the previous season the lack of an adequate replacement forced Goncharenko to constantly put Fedor Chalov in the composition, now he can give the young striker time to rest and think about his mistakes.

Jose Salomon Rondon's loan added power and variability to the offensive.

Now the coaching staff got the opportunity to play both through throws into the penalty area and through a short pass.

In addition, the mentor is able not only to put the squad on the field for a specific opponent, but also to strengthen the game during the meeting.

In Tula, after the break, midfielders Ivan Oblyakov and Nair Tiknizyan, winger Arnor Sigurdsson and all the same Chalov entered the field.

At the same time, Emil Bohinen, acquired from the Norwegian “Stabek”, and the Belarusian forward Ilya Shkurin, remained on the bench.

Taking into account the noticeably orphaned Zenit bench, this could have a major impact on the development of the match.

In recent games, Semak only once used five substitutions and hardly did it solely for tactical reasons.

The injuries of Malcolm and Sebastian Driussi significantly limited the attacking potential of the team, and there is no one to make up for their absence.

In fact, the specialist counts only on Andrey Mostovoy, Alexey Sutormin, Alexander Erokhin and Danila Krugovoy, only occasionally entrusting a place on the field to the academy graduates.

Earlier, Yuri Zhirkov was also a serious strengthening, but this season the veteran spent only 625 minutes in the RPL.

As far as we know, Malcolm and Driussi will not help the Petersburgers in the 23rd round, which noticeably increases the Muscovites' chances of success.

In fact, the composition of Zenit is known in advance, and Semak will not have a plan B.

Goncharenko, on the other hand, can wear down an opponent physically in the first half, forcing the charges to increase the pace to the maximum, and in the second, release high-speed Edzhuke and Sigurdsson on the field and make tired counterparts make mistakes.

At the same time, the victory is beneficial not only for CSKA itself, but also for its competitor in the fight for medals and its principal rival - Spartak.

If Zenit is defeated, Domenico Tedesco's team will have a chance to get close to the leader at a distance of one point and become the favorite in the championship race.

The reason for this is a relatively simple calendar, which stands out qualitatively against the background of the reigning champion's schedule.

At the end of the championship, the red-whites will have to play with three strong opponents - Rostov, Lokomotiv and CSKA.

At the same time, they will converge with the army team at the Otkritie Arena, and they will have to leave the capital for the sake of a trip to the charges of Valery Karpin, whose unbeaten streak reached four matches.

At the same time, all these meetings will take place until the 27th round, while in the last three the most formidable rivals will be Khimki, which by that time will have to solve the problem of maintaining a residence permit in the top division.

For comparison, Zenit will face difficult trips to Sochi and Krasnodar, as well as a match with the highly motivated Lokomotiv, which by the 28th round may well return to the fight for a ticket to the Champions League.

In addition, one round before the end, the reigning champion will meet with Ufa, which by that time may still have a chance to stay in the RPL.

Taking into account that over the past year and a half, the “townspeople” have taken points away from the favorite twice, they should not be underestimated.

As for CSKA, apart from Spartak, it will have to face off against Sochi, Krasnodar and Dynamo.

Moreover, the latter will have to be played in the final rounds, which significantly lowers the chances of success.

Even if Goncharenko's wards manage to approach the finish line in the rank of leaders, it will be extremely difficult to maintain the advantage.

In black-green and white-blue they have won a total of only two times in their last 12 meetings.