Battle for the throne: what awaits the UFC lightweight division if Nurmagomedov does not resume his career

2021 could be one of the most eventful years in UFC lightweight history.

Khabib Nurmagomedov's sudden decision to end his career actually left the competitive and vibrant division without a champion, as a result of which interest in him only increased.

Some experts believe that the Russian can return to MMA, and the president of the promotion, Dana White, does not part with the hope of organizing the 30th Eagle fight.

But even if this does not happen, fans of mixed martial arts are unlikely to remain in the red.

As of the end of November 2020, there are six fighters who will be among the main contenders for the lightweight trophy next year.

Of course, we are talking about the former holders of the interim title in the person of Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson, about the ex-champion in two weight categories Conor McGregor, as well as about Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira.

Moreover, four of them are expected to fight each other before the end of January, and rumors are already circulating about the organization of a duel between the remaining two.

At the moment, it is already known about the fights between Ferguson and Oliveira, as well as McGregor and Poirier.

It is possible that a duel between Gaethje and Chandler may soon be announced.

Michael has yet to play a single fight since leaving Bellator, but has already been seen as one of the top contenders for the trophy.

In particular, he was the one who should have come on as a substitute if Khabib or Justin were injured on the eve of UFC 254. In this regard, it is logical to perceive him as a participant in the championship race, and not the same Dan Hooker.

Yes, the Australian ranks fifth in the ranking, but is unlikely to be comparable in level with previous athletes.

Thus, the current situation in the UFC lightweight division resembles a kind of mini-competition between the six strongest fighters, and its winner will get the belt.

In fact, this brings MMA fans back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when Olympic tournaments were popular in mixed martial arts.

Within the framework of one show in the cage, the quarterfinals, semi-finals and the final were alternately held, according to the results of which the winner was determined.

It is worth recalling that it was in this format that UFC 6 was held in July 1995, remembered for the success of Oleg Taktarov.

In a similar format, the Grand Prix was held at that time, the most popular PRIDE promotion, where Fedor Emelianenko became famous.

True, the Japanese slightly changed the formula and held competitions within the framework of not one, but several shows.

So, in 2004, the Last Emperor won the heavyweight championship, and the qualification took place in April, and the final took place only on December 31.

The UFC is unlikely to dare to revive such a tournament system.

In the current environment, this is too difficult and could leave the lightweight division without a champion for too long.

Nevertheless, the presence of six applicants for the belt at once gives the promotion the opportunity to promote this story to the maximum and draw attention to the popular category.

At the moment, the main intrigue is whether Nurmagomedov will decide to resume his career, and if so, how long he will perform.

After all, we can talk either about the jubilee, 30th fight in honor of Abdulmanap's father, or about a series of title defenses, which will allow him to seriously consider him in a dispute for the title of the greatest fighter of all time.

The form of the Russian leaves no doubt that he is able to dominate the division for the next several years.

And this can bring him not only fame and high status, but also substantial fees.

According to media reports, for the battle with Porier in 2019, he received about $ 10 million.But since then, a lot has changed.

Nurmagomedov won another spectacular victory, and his popularity increased markedly.

His jubilee fight in MMA would certainly have become a global event and attracted a solid audience, and a victory in it would have allowed the Russian to renegotiate the contract on even more favorable terms.

Nevertheless, while Nurmagomedov assures that his decision to leave the sport is final.

Moreover, he states this against the background of reports of his planned meeting with White.

At the same time, the head of the UFC himself behaves very far-sighted - he does not close the door in front of one of the most recognizable MMA fighters in the world and is trying with all his might to keep him.

But this does not mean that at the same moment Dana is not preparing a plan B in case the return of Khabib still does not take place.

In this case, the ideal scenario seems to be a scenario according to which a temporary belt will be played in a duel between McGregor and Poirier.

This would indicate the organization's plans for the development of the division and exclude stagnation within it.

Now it has too many bright and ambitious athletes who are unlikely to continue to perform regularly without a chance to take the title.

It's hard to imagine that the same Conor would agree to fight Gatji or Ferguson in mid-2021, if the trophy is not at stake.

At the moment, a similar thing is happening in the heavyweight division, where the strongest contenders have been unable to fight each other for several years.

First, Francis Ngannu and Curtis Blades were waiting for the completion of the trilogy between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier, and now - the return of the first to the cage.

Lightweights are unlikely to want to repeat their fate, therefore they are already actively expressing their position on this issue.

So, the same Poirier has already called for his title fight with McGregor.

In addition, the announcement of a time zone draw would leave a loophole for Nurmagomedov's return.

Thus, the promotion will once again demonstrate that it has not deleted the Russian from its plans, and will also gain additional time to negotiate with him if necessary.

Also, the organization will not have to look for a new opponent if Khabib changes his mind.

In this case, the question may arise: why should the temporary belt be played precisely in the battle between McGregor and Poirier?

Indeed, already in December, Ferguson, who once had a win-win streak of 12 fights, will hold his fight, and soon Gatji and ex-Bellator champion Michael Chandler may face off in a duel.

The fact is that only an American and an Irishman come to face-to-face confrontation, having victories to their credit.

Tony and Justin are returning to the cage after defeats and are hardly worthy to fight for the title on the run.

As for the prospects, there are several options at once.

The future holder of the interim title can either immediately meet with the winner of one of the fights, or take a break until autumn and wait until the victors of a kind of semifinals determine the name of the future first challenger.

It is worth noting that such a schedule is ideal for McGregor, who a few months ago announced his desire to have a boxing fight with Manny Pacquiao.

If the Irishman defeats Poirier, then he may well fight the Filipino in the summer, and in the fall-winter - to fight for the lightweight title.

By this time, the situation with the return of Nurmagomedov will probably have already cleared up and it will be possible either to arrange a unifying battle or to play the title of absolute champion.