On November 14, Islam Makhachev was supposed to lead the Absolute Fighting Championship tournament for the first time and hold the largest fight in his career.
The victory over Rafael Dos Anjos could not only draw attention to the teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov, but also allow him to get into the top 7 lightweight division.
However, the Russian fighter was forced to refuse to perform on the show due to infection, and a day later it became known that in the near future he might not have a chance to fight the Brazilian.
The UFC matchmakers did not wait for the opponent to recover and found a replacement in the person of Paul Felder.
At first glance, it can be assumed that the cancellation of the duel with Dos Anjos should not have serious consequences for Makhachev's career, because in mixed martial arts such situations are not uncommon.
Fighters are regularly withdrawn from battles due to injuries, and during the pandemic, one of the main reasons for canceling fights was the coronavirus.
The same Ion Cucelaba was twice unable to enter the octagon - once due to the onset of a pandemic, and the second after passing positive tests for COVID-19.
At the same time, Kutselaba was not deprived of the opportunity to fight Magomed Ankalaev.
The battle between Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira was postponed the same number of times.
In addition, Raphael himself was unable to compete at UFC 254 due to illness.
Against the background of all this, it may seem that Makhachev should hardly wait for any sanctions from the promotion.
The reason for his refusal to participate in the show was valid and cannot be regarded as a misdemeanor.
In the end, Islam did not get injured during the overly intense sparring, which has previously happened with representatives of the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), and also did not fail the weigh-in procedure.
In fact, he is as much to blame as Dos Anjos, who contracted the coronavirus ahead of the aforementioned tournament.
Nevertheless, the disruption of the main event of UFC Vegas 14 may, if not seriously complicate Makhachev's prospects in the promotion, then at least seriously slow down his rise to the top.
And the reason is that the Brazilian turned out to be much luckier than his counterpart.
Before the show in Abu Dhabi, the Russian also tried to find a rival to the last and was ready to fight with anyone, but then no one agreed to come out on short notice.
It took Raphael less than a day to get a new opponent in the person of Felder.
In February, the seventh number of the rating announced the decision to temporarily suspend his career, but for the sake of a duel with Dos Anjos, he decided to return to the octagon.
Felder's solution is easy to understand.
The American tried to enter the lightweight elite for a long time, but he stumbled at the most crucial moment.
He was closest to this status at the beginning of 2020.
He had a series of two wins to his credit, and a couple more could well allow him to fight for the title.
But in February he lost to Dan Hooker by split decision.
For Paul, the fight with Dos Anjos is an opportunity to reaffirm himself loudly, as well as demonstrate loyalty to the promotion.
This raises a logical question: if Felder was ready to resume his career all this time, why did he not agree to fight Makhachev at UFC 254?
The reason here is solely in the absence of a star status in the presence of high skill from a Russian.
The victory over Islam did not give Paul any serious dividends, while the defeat could cost him a place in the top ten.
Surely the American took into account all the risks and therefore did not force the events in October.
Thus, Makhachev found himself in a difficult situation.
It would be in his interests to achieve the postponement of the battle with the ex-champion and get a chance to enter the octagon before the end of 2020.
In this case, he would practically not deviate from the course set by Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he could start 2021 as one of the top fighters in the division.
But Felder's appearance on the horizon dashed those prospects.
We can safely say that Raphael will not return to the cage before spring, and the fight with him may well lose its relevance.
If Dos Anjos is defeated by Felder, then in the future, victory over him will no longer be such a serious achievement for Makhachev.
This failure will show that the Brazilian has seriously passed over the past four years and can no longer compete on equal terms with the stars of the category up to 70 kilograms.
At the same time, if successful, Rafael may himself enter the top 10 and lose interest in the fight with Islam.
A triumph at UFC Vegas 14 will instantly place him among the strongest in the division and allow him to consider going under the belt.
Then a fight with a dangerous but not well-known Russian will become too risky.
In this regard, Makhachev risks not only losing the chance to speak in 2020, but also getting an opponent comparable in status to the former title holder.
The fighters from the top 10 were not eager to fight the heir of Nurmagomedov before, but now they can find another reason to avoid a duel with him.
Not in favor of Makhachev is the fact that during his career in the UFC, he has already withdrawn from fights three times.
In 2016, he tested positive for meldonium and was forced to abandon the fight with Drew Dober, and in September 2017 he was unable to share the cage with Michel Prazeres.
Moreover, the nature of the injury was not revealed.
His duel with Francisco Trinaldo in January 2019 was also canceled, and also without explanation.
The President of the Absolute Fighting Championship, Dana White, has repeatedly emphasized that he especially appreciates the fighters who never withdraw from tournaments and are ready to help out the organization at any time and leave on short notice.
Therefore, the same Donald Cerrone has always enjoyed great respect.
Makhachev, however, cannot be attributed to this category.
Like Nurmagomedov, he is used to preparing carefully for speeches and not making rash decisions.
Therefore, it should not be ruled out that refusing to fight with Dos Anjos can spoil the functionary's attitude towards the athlete and lead to the beginning of a period of stagnation in his career.
In any case, if White does this, it is unlikely to surprise anyone.
Previously, he had repeatedly turned away from the fighters, who somehow refused to hold fights, and solidly lengthened their path to the title.
A striking confirmation of this is the example of Robert Whittaker.
According to Dana, he did not want to fight Israel Adesanya for the belt.
As a result, the Australian champion's prospects are no longer discussed, and the New Zealander may soon get a chance to take the second belt, this time in the light heavyweight division.
At one time, Tony Ferguson seriously hit his own prospects.
In April 2019, he had the opportunity to fight Max Holloway for the interim lightweight title, but refused.
He was replaced by Dustin Poirier, who not only won a sensational victory, but also got the right to measure his strength with Khabib Nurmagomedov.
El Cucuy got his chance only in the spring of 2020, but due to the coronavirus pandemic he was never able to take advantage of it.
True, there are also opposite examples.
In particular, White recently publicly announced that McGregor refused to fight for the belt at UFC 249 in May, but this did not affect the prospects of the Irishman in the championship.
And in 2016, former light heavyweight star Anthony Johnson did not come out to fight John Jones, citing dental problems.
Nevertheless, this did not prevent him from fighting again for the title with Daniel Cormier a year later.
However, it should be borne in mind that McGregor is still one of the main stars in UFC history and the most popular fighter of the promotion.
It is not surprising that White is ready to give the Irishman not only a second, but also a third chance.
And even after he posted their personal correspondence on the network.
As for Johnson, at that time he was part of the heavyweight elite and was considered one of the most intimidating punchers in the world of MMA.