The new RPL season began for Krasnodar, the bronze medalist of the previous tournament, not very well. According to the results of the first five rounds, the southerners scored only seven points and were in the middle of the standings, five points behind the first line.

Murad Musaev's charges defeated Ufa (3: 0) and Arsenal (2: 0), lost to Lokomotiv (0: 1) and Ural (0: 1), and also drew with CSKA (1: 1). In three unsuccessful meetings, Krasnodar scored only one goal, although the total indicator of expected goals (xG), calculated by the Understat portal, in these games was 3.7. That is, the fans of the team may well complain about bad luck in these meetings.

Moreover, in a duel in Yekaterinburg, the guests were forced to act in the minority for most of the second half after the removal of Cayo Panteleao. In addition, the main playmakers of the Southerners Wanderson and Remy Cabella did not attend that match.

According to statistics, Krasnodar continues to demonstrate its proprietary attacking game and is among the league leaders in many respects. For example, Musaev's team ranks first in the current RPL season in terms of the average number of short passes per game (524) and shots on target (6.8), the second in ball possession (59.6% on average, more only for Spartak) ), the second-third - in the number of strokes (17.4) and the fourth - in the percentage of accurate passes (83.6%).

That is, if you believe the numbers, Krasnodar did not play worse. In the first five rounds, the Southerners scored only six goals (eighth in the league) and only four from the field. At the same time, they, in principle, cannot complain of bad luck. The expected goals scored rate was 7.8, but the expected goals conceded rate was 4.59 (the team conceded less than they could).

Matvei Safonov's excellent play has an effect. The young goalkeeper in terms of the number of saves made (26) is in second place in the league, behind only Alexander Belenov from Ufa (30). For example, Spartak goalkeeper Alexander Maksimenko saved his possessions 14 times in six games.

Too much of the team's play is tied to the right midfielder Wanderson, who is among the leaders in the number of shots (4), key passes (3.3) and crosses (2.8). Often partners prefer to give the ball to the Brazilian to the detriment of team action. At the same time, according to the statistical portal Whoscored, he is still the best football player in the championship (rating 8.39).

Bloodless Rostov and Krasnodar in anticipation of their first derby win in 2.5 years

Match of the 6th round with Rostov will be a serious test for Krasnodar. Moreover, his game can turn into a fateful one for Musaev. On the one hand, Krasnodar will face another rival who took a place in the top five in the last RPL season. In addition, the opponents have a special attitude towards the southern derby, and Rostov is still ahead of the pursuer.

On the other hand, Valery Karpin's wards are experiencing serious problems with the composition. In the summer, Rostov made only three acquisitions on the transfer market (Kento Hashimoto, David Toshevsky and Konstantin Kovalev). Of these three, the team began to benefit only the Japanese, who scored two goals.

But due to injuries, Rostov may miss several key players at once in the derby: defender Dmitry Chistyakov and midfielders Matias Normann and Pavel Mamaev.

In addition, midfielder Baktiyor Zainutdinov joined CSKA. Thus, in the match with Krasnodar, the coaching staff in the center of the field will probably be able to rely only on the newcomer Hashimoto, who has had coronavirus, Roman Eremenko, and young Daniil Glebov.

Under these conditions, Krasnodar will only be expected to win, especially since the bulls have not beat their principal rival since March 2018, when the team's colors were still defended by Mamaev and Fyodor Smolov.

At the same time, Krasnodar also continues to experience personnel problems. Urosh Spaich, Dmitry Stotsky and Ari are still unable to enter the pitch. The loss of the naturalized Brazilian is especially painful for the southerners, since in his absence Musaev is forced to bypass only Marcus Berg in the attack. The Swede is extremely diligent, wins a lot of single combats and scored two goals, but still does not quite fit the playing model of the Southerners - he is not able to win back with partners in a short time like Ari.

But the coaching staff of Krasnodar still has a longer bench and can afford, for example, to leave Magomed-Shapi Suleimanov in reserve. In addition, Victor Klasson returned to duty after a serious injury. And Cabella must recover by the derby.

Misfires in decisive matches and strengthening of competitors

A possible defeat by Rostov will lower the southerners even lower in the standings, and the growing gap from the first place will call into question the championship prospects of Krasnodar.

Under Musaev, the team twice took third place in the RPL, but the ambitions of Sergei Galitsky, for sure, extend further, and he expects a new leap from his brainchild.

For example, last season the southerners had a chance to bypass Lokomotiv in the fight for silver and for the first time in history make their way to the group stage of the Champions League, but at the end of the season the RPL began to misfire.

As a result, in the last nine matches of the national championship, Krasnodar won only three victories, one of which was technical victory over Orenburg, and barely missed CSKA in third place.

At decisive moments last season, the southerners also suffered setbacks in European competitions. In the Champions League, Musaev's wards lost to Olympiacos in the playoffs with a total score of 1: 6, and in the Europa League in the key match for the exit from the group they were devastatingly defeated by Getafe - 0: 3.

Such results in the eyes of the club owner can present Musaev as a coach, under whose leadership the team cannot get together at the most crucial moments and take a step forward. Despite the fact that Galitsky always verbally supports the young coach, at some point he may run out of patience.

So, in the middle of September 2016, after a series of misfires in the championship, Oleg Kononov left his post, having worked in Krasnodar for more than three years. Even winning the first medals in 2015 did not save the specialist from retirement.

At the moment, the next misfires in the championship can alienate the team not only from the first place, but also from the European Cup zone, since this season the fight for medals promises to be more intense than in the past.