Explainable paradox: why Spartak's leadership in the RPL should not be misleading

In the sixth round of the Russian Premier League, Spartak defeated Tula Arsenal in their field and reached the intermediate first place in the standings. Muscovites scored 14 points and bypassed the reigning champions by two points. For Domenico Tedesco's wards, this success became the third in a row and allowed them to extend their unbeaten run, which has been going on for eight matches, taking into account last season. Nevertheless, at the end of the last meeting, the fans of the red and white had reasons not only for joy, but also for fears.

Yes, Spartak prevailed over Arsenal with a score of 2: 1, but this meeting was one of the worst for him of the season. The hosts often made mistakes in the middle of the field, and in the second half they looked noticeably tired. Of course, in the current situation it is very difficult to maintain optimal condition, but this can hardly be considered an excuse. All teams are on an equal footing and are forced to play two days later on the third, and Tedesco has, though not experienced, but far from the shortest bench in the RPL.

However, while the German specialist is in no hurry to use all the athletes available to him. And this is even despite the tight schedule that forced Spartak to play six matches in the last 21 days. At the moment, the Moscow team occupies the last, 16th place in terms of rotation width, giving only 17 players the opportunity to appear on the field. At the same time, Auston Urunov acquired in the offseason for the first time got a chance to prove himself only in the confrontation with Arsenal, Andrey Yeschenko, Ilya Gaponov, Gus Til and Reziuan Mirzov spent only 95 minutes in total, and Ilya Kutepov and Nikolay Rasskazov never left at all bench.

It should be borne in mind that in this match "Arsenal" appeared without their top scorer. Last season, Evgeny Lutsenko hammered 15 goals and took third place in the scorer race, losing only to Serdar Azmun and Artem Dzyuba from Zenit, and also became a real thunderstorm for Spartak. In the first round, his accurate blow brought the "gunners" victory over 10-time champions of Russia, and in the second - helped to escape from the crushing defeat.

In addition, Arsenal spent the entire second half with ten men. In stoppage time, one of the brightest attacking Tula players, Daniil Lesovoy, was removed by the first half. The midfielder in a harsh manner expressed disagreement with the side referee's verdict to appoint a goal kick and not only shouted at that, but waved his hand in hearts. Chief referee Alexei Matyunin reacted instantly and showed a yellow card, which became the second for the guilty one. However, even without a partner, Sergei Podpaly's wards managed to create spice in the possessions of Alexander Maksimenko and could well equalize the score.

In addition to problems with freshness in a particular match, the frequent mistakes of "Spartak" in organizing attacks were striking. After Zelimkhan Bakayev left the field, supporting midfielders began to answer more and more for delivering the ball to someone else's penalty area. But neither Alex Kral nor Nail Umyarov were accurate in the front lines and regularly lost the ball. Gus Til, who appeared from the bench, did not help them either. The Dutchman cannot get accustomed to the "Otkritie Arena", in this regard, his departure from the capital seems very likely. As a result, the Tula very often managed to make a selection already in the center of the field and make dangerous raids to the gate of Maksimenko.

Given the absence of Lutsenko and the removal of Lesovoy, the second half turned out to be much more intense than it should have been. Tedesco's wards could bring the matter to victory in a much calmer manner, but by their own mistakes they gave their opponents chances over and over again. There is no doubt that a more skilled team would certainly have punished Spartak for such imprudence and could well have taken away not only victory from them, but also completely deprived of points.

This leads to another reason why fans of red and white should not overestimate the team's intermediate leadership. You need to understand that in many ways the reason for this is not the most difficult schedule at the start of the season. Until now, "Spartak" only once met with a team from the top 6 at the end of the last championship. In the fourth round, Tedesco's wards coped with the Lokomotiv players, but even then their rivals were experiencing serious problems. Suffice it to recall that the initiative finally passed to the red and white only when the silver medalists of the RPL lost due to injuries to Alexei Miranchuk and Dmitry Barinov. In the absence of leaders, the railroad workers were unable to rebuild the game and looked like a pale shadow of themselves.

Nevertheless, the fans still have reasons for optimism. "Spartak" has made significant progress in attack and is trying to act as the first number, and not sit out in defense and wait for the opponent's misfires. For comparison, last season the red and whites ranked fifth in terms of ball possession (53.6%), behind Lokomotiv, CSKA, Zenit and Krasnodar. At the start of this year, Tedesco's wards are confidently on the first line, with 65.4% in the asset. Of course, you need to make allowances for the level of rivals, but even taking this aspect into account, the indicators are impressive.

Red and White began to combine more effectively in the final third of the field and try to shoot from more advantageous positions. Hence the increase in performance - in terms of expected goals (12.3), they rank first in the RPL, ahead of Rubin (10.21) and Zenit (9.32). For comparison, in the last championship, 47.8% of the shots were delivered from within the penalty area, while in this one - 60%. Of course, one of the main reasons was the appearance in the team of Sobolev, who is doing great on the second floor.

Before Tedesco came to Spartak, many noted that in the first season with Schalke he focused on defensive football and achieved success, and in the second he began to shift the emphasis towards attack. Then this experiment failed, which led to an unsuccessful performance in the Bundesliga and the subsequent resignation of a specialist. Apparently, the German drew conclusions from that experience.

This is at least confirmed by the fact that Spartak did not act worse in defense. In the last championship, the team held 18 meetings under the guidance of a German mentor, in which they allowed them to hit their own goal 18 times. At the same time, the number of expected conceded goals (xGA) was 19.58 - 1.08 on average per game.

In the 2020/21 season, the red and white conceded five goals in six games, and the xGA indicator was 4.86 (0.81 on average per game). Of course, the level of rivals has not yet allowed to fully assess the state of the trio Georgiy Dzhikia - Samuel Zhigot - Pavel Maslov, but so far everything looks promising.

In addition, one cannot but pay attention to the fighting spirit of Muscovites. They fight for all 90 minutes and continue to go forward, even if something does not work out. In the confrontation with Akhmat and Rotor, Tedesco's team scored in the second half and put pressure on the opponent, and in the matches with Lokomotiv and Arsenal they won strong-willed victories. All this reminds of the times of Massimo Carrera, when the red and white played a lot of games “on the teeth”. Sometimes they clearly lack the skill and coherence to easily deal with rivals, but at these moments they manage to compensate for this with dedication and attitude.