From a position of strength: why Nurmagomedov does not lose anything in case of cancellation of the battle with Ferguson

The duel between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson is on the verge of collapse. At the moment, the UFC has not officially confirmed the cancellation, but the lightweight champion is still in Russia and cannot leave its borders due to the temporary suspension of flights with other countries. Thus, one of the most anticipated confrontations of 2020 in MMA risks again not taking place. However, despite all the assurances of Orel about the importance of a duel with the American for his legacy, he is in a winning position and can afford to abandon the battle.

Over the past years, Ferguson has been considered the only athlete who can get the better of Nurmagomedov. This is evidenced by both his series of 12 victories and the unpredictable style of warfare. The American is unlikely to have enough strength to resist the Russian in grappling, but he is quite capable of delivering a smashing blow in the rack, cutting his opponent with his elbows, or unexpectedly holding a painful or suffocating move. Unlike Conor McGregor, Tony is a generalist who does not specialize in one particular aspect, which can add to Habib's problems.

In this regard, the fight with Ferguson was regarded as a kind of litmus test for the entire career of Nurmagomedov. Many fans did not forget that Habib won the title in the battle with at that time the 11th division rating number Al Yakvinta, and then defended him in duels with a frustrated McGregor and starving Dustin Porrier from the sky. The victory over Tony was to become not only the most important component of Habib's legacy, but also a proof of his unsurpassedness. If successful, even the most ardent skeptics should not have questions about the greatness of the Russians.

But even taking into account the importance of this fight, it is Nurmagomedov who is a kind of king of the situation. He can easily allow himself to play it safe and refuse to conduct a duel at an uncomfortable time and place. Status and merits give Khabib the opportunity to choose when to fight and when not, without fearing to lose anything. He is currently at the top and hardly wants to risk everything and, above all, his health for the sake of meeting with Ferguson.

Undoubtedly, a number of factors influenced his duel with Tony, the main of which was coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, the Absolute Fighting Championship was forced to abandon the tournament in Brooklyn and frantically search for a new place. It could not but annoy the athlete. He was forced to interrupt fees due to the closure of several camps in the United States. The return of Nurmagomedov to his homeland seems quite reasonable and logical, because it was rather dangerous to remain in the USA.

At the same time, the actions of the UFC leadership can be called strange. On the one hand, promotion bosses wanted to show that they intend to give fans the opportunity to enjoy one of the most anticipated confrontations of the first half of 2020, but on the other hand, they put the athletes themselves at risk. After all, they were in limbo and were forced to train, not knowing whether they were destined to enter the cage. Nurmagomedov, who was used to approaching the battles in perfect physical and psychological form, might not like this.

But if for someone the refusal to speak at UFC 249 could be a serious loss and a missed opportunity to prove yourself at a major event, then this does not apply to Khabib. He is already one of the main stars of mixed martial arts and is well aware of this, as confirmed by his comments on ESPN. The Russian knew perfectly well that he was the most important participant in the show, and in case of its cancellation, he would lose the least. A possible refusal will not deprive Nurmagomedov of either the status or other related benefits that he has achieved in recent years.

Habib is already entrenched in the elite of the division, even if it cannot be unambiguously considered the main star of the promotion. This is evidenced by at least the fact that McGregor still has no equal in the ability to sell paid broadcasts, and the figures of the show with the participation of Nurmagomedov and Porie have not been made public. But we must not forget that the record UFC 229 was possible only thanks to the bright hostility between Habib and Conor, so the significance of the Russian should not be denied.

Striking out Nurmagomedov from the most popular promotion athletes can only be a few devastating defeats in a row, but not the inability to leave his country because of the coronavirus pandemic. Yes, some fans may negatively perceive his desire to play it safe, and haters will again begin to openly express their disrespect for the champion, but this will not affect Khabib’s reputation. Even if the fight with Ferguson is postponed to the fall, it will still remain one of the most anticipated events of the year in MMA.

Of course, White can “get into the bottle” and refuse to appoint Nurmagomedova to fight in 2020 as a punishment. But in this case, the UFC will be worse, and not the fighter himself. The absence of Habib will invariably affect the level of hype surrounding the tournament, which is unlikely to suit the promotion itself. Given the fact that Dana has always put the development of the organization and financial benefits at the forefront, this option can be practically eliminated.

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Posted by Khabib Nurmagomedov (@khabib_nurmagomedov) Apr 3, 2020 at 1:12 PDT

Similarly, Nurmagomedov does not risk anything financially. After a duel with McGregor and Porrier, he became one of the highest paid UFC fighters, from which he certainly will not drop out in the near future. So, in June 2019, he signed a contract for several fights, according to which he had only one. According to media reports, his fee for the battle with Dustin amounted to about $ 6 million, but his manager Rizvan Magomedov assured that in fact the amount was much larger. Based on this, it can be assumed that for each of the subsequent fights he will earn at least $ 10 million, and a reduction in the size of payments is possible only after the signing of a new agreement.

Thus, the most serious blow to the Russian could be the deprivation of the title. At first glance, this can really be called a harsh measure, but in reality now even this is unlikely to become a serious punishment for Nurmagomedov. He had already won the belt and had never been on the verge of defeat, forcing many to consider him invincible. If the UFC takes it away and plays in the confrontation between conditional Ferguson and Justin Gatzy, then his triumph will definitely be considered a fake champion from true MMA fans. At the same time, he can prove the opposite only in a duel with Habib.

In this case, the deprivation of the title will actually lose its meaning, because the future champion will still have to fight with Nurmagomedov in the near future. Yes, the vis-a-vis Russian will have the trophy on paper, but in reality he will be considered an outsider. And after the defeat, he will be content with only a line in the resume.

Perhaps because of this, Nurmagomedov decided to play it safe and not go ahead for the sake of meeting with Ferguson. Like any person, he had the right to put himself in the first place and not risk his own health, as well as the health of his team and family. Moreover, he could afford that.

For example, Khabib could well refuse to speak at UFC 223 in April 2018. Then the show was preceded by an injury and the removal of Ferguson and McGregor's attack on the bus, as a result of which several athletes were injured and decided not to perform in Brooklyn. But then too much was at stake for Habib, so he decided to go all the way. If Nurmagomedov had refused to fight then, he would have missed the chance to take part in one of the most one-sided title fights in the history of the championship and seriously complicate the task of climbing to the top of the MMA.