On the afternoon of the 23rd local time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that "the current situation in the world is not suitable for hosting the Olympic Games." (Image source: Japanese Asahi TV video screenshot)

Chinanews Client Beijing, March 24th (Zhang Yifan) Under the continuous impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the world, the Tokyo Olympic Games, which should have opened this summer, have been marked by a huge question mark. Where will the Tokyo Olympics finally face severe pressure? Has the extension become a high probability event? When will the Olympic flames be lit? No matter what choices are made, there will be almost cruel hard choices.

On the morning of the 23rd, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had repeatedly insisted on hosting the Olympics, finally "Matsuguchi", saying that if the Tokyo Olympics cannot be held in a complete form, it will have to consider postponing. The president of the International Olympic Committee Bach also made it clear that the Tokyo Olympics will not be cancelled, but "the delay is an option".

On March 19th local time, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics flame transfer ceremony took place at the Panasinaiko Stadium in Athens.

In the context of Abe's statement that "the current global situation is not suitable for hosting the Olympic Games", to a certain extent, the possibility of the Tokyo Olympics being held as scheduled is already unlikely. The Tokyo Olympics will most likely be the only Olympics in a peaceful era that cannot be held on time. Of course, there are still four months left before the opening of July and four weeks before the final decision is made. It is not known what will happen.

There are still many possibilities for the future of the Tokyo Olympics.

On the 23rd Beijing time, the Canadian Olympic Organizing Committee announced on the website that it will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics in the summer of 2020.

Possibility 1: Difficult, hold it as scheduled?

If the external environment turns around in a short period of time, it is also an existing assumption that the Tokyo Olympics can be opened on time if conditions permit. To some extent, the Olympic dream of 11,000 athletes from the Olympic Committees and delegations from 206 countries or regions may be one of the reasons for the Tokyo Olympics to be held as scheduled. Of course, this reason may be supported by the huge investment of the Japanese side and the eager expectations of the Japanese people.

But this possibility may be a bit too idealistic. Under the influence of the epidemic, most of the world's events have been suspended, including Olympic qualifiers for many events. Currently, 43% of the qualifications for the Tokyo Olympic Games have not been finalized. If the Olympics are held as scheduled, there will be little time left for the qualifiers after the epidemic has stabilized.

In addition, if the epidemic is under control and sports events are given a green light, professional competitions such as European football will quickly reignite. Whether they will conflict with the Olympic schedule and hedge their influence is also a factor to be considered. Take the superstar Mbappe as an example. He had previously promised to represent the French team in the Tokyo Olympics, but if the European football resumes the fight, will the Ligue 1 powerhouse that has already advanced to the Champions League quarter-finals be released?

The Australian Olympic Committee stated that it is difficult to gather delegations to participate in the current situation.

What is even more troublesome is that the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway and other multi-national Olympic committees have publicly stated their refusal to participate in the schedule or hope that the Olympic Games will be postponed. If the Olympic family cannot be reunited and many high-level athletes cannot participate, then this is not a happy ending for the four-year event.

Possibility 2: Postponed to fall?

On the evening of the 23rd, Japanese media broke the news that sources from the Japanese government revealed that the Japanese government's basic decision will soon inform the International Olympic Committee. If it makes a decision to delay the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, Japan will agree.

Although Japan appears to have made concessions, some countries do not seem to be buying it. As mentioned above, on the 23rd Beijing time, the Canadian and Australian Olympic committees are on the first schedule and hope to extend the Olympic Games to 2021. They are willing to help deal with all the complex issues brought about by rescheduling the event schedule. The Canadian Olympic Committee even made it clear that they would not send teams to participate in the 2020 Olympic Games.

It also challenged the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games to the fall. However, if the international response to the epidemic is strong, the possibility of controlling the situation in a short period of time cannot be completely ruled out, and at least the window extended to autumn has not been completely closed. Compared to the original opening date of July 24th, if it is rescheduled to September or October, in addition to the time left for the qualifiers will be relatively abundant, the environment in Japan in autumn is also more comfortable and suitable for hosting sports events.

Data Map: Odaiba Waterfront Park in Tokyo, Japan showcases the Olympic rings and welcomes the upcoming Tokyo Olympics.

But the decisive vote is probably not on the IOC or Japan. Bach said in an interview that the International Olympic Committee has been in constant contact with WHO since mid-February and will follow WHO recommendations. Another piece of data that is not optimistic is that, as of 5:10 on the 24th, Beijing time, more than 370,000 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, more than 16,000 deaths, and the speed of virus transmission is accelerating.

Even if the eligibility to participate is determined, some teams and players may refuse to go to Tokyo due to various considerations such as safety. If we insist on choosing to host in the fall, maybe the Olympics will have to face the embarrassing situation of "shrinking" and then "adding water", which is also not in keeping with the original intention of Japan to "hold the Olympics in a complete form."

Possibility 3: East Olympic becomes "Winter" Olympic?

If the international epidemic can be controlled before the fall or autumn, there is also the possibility of postponing the Tokyo Olympics to the end of the year or even the beginning of the following year. If this hypothesis happens, it will be the first "Summer Olympics" in winter in history.

However, Tongkou is not just a title, the cold winter is the season when competitive sports suffocate on a large scale. Many events that are only suitable for summer games are not suitable for winter. If the Olympic Games are really held in the middle of winter, including open water swimming, triathlon and other events, will the water temperature in winter pose a threat to the health of the contestants?

Data map: Ariake Stadium

What's more, cold weather is not suitable for high-level athletes to play world-class level, and low temperature has an objective impact on the athlete's competitive status. At low temperatures, whether players from all over the world can provide the perfect sports feast for the audience is also a potential issue. If the best look of the Olympic Games cannot be presented, the significance of the delay will be somewhat reduced.

Another thing to note is that winter is the season when influenza is prone to large-scale outbreaks. At that time, if the new crown virus that has already been dying out is making a comeback, will the absolute safety of the Olympic Games, a world-wide gathering of the five continents, and the participation of the world, pose a severe test for the host of the Tokyo Olympics and the Japanese public health department? .

Possibility 4: Postponed to one year later?

In addition to the above three possibilities, the International Olympic Committee and the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee have a relatively safe way to postpone the Tokyo Olympic Games until next year, that is, to be held in the spring of 2021 or later. In this way, there will be relatively sufficient time to respond to the epidemic situation and adjust the schedule, and it will also relieve some of the concerns of the National Olympic Committee and players. There will also be more time for the preparation of the matter.

However, there are also disadvantages to this adjustment. As we all know, the four years of the Olympics are a cycle. The preparations for the various delegations are also carried out in accordance with this cycle. If the inherent law is suddenly broken, it may have an impact on the athletes' previous efforts in the past four years. After all, the transfer of high-level athletes ’competitive state is an esoteric science, and each stage of each year has its goals and tasks.

The IAAF issues a statement on its website and works with the International Olympic Committee at other times.

In the past two years, some athletes have already qualified for the Tokyo Olympics, and many of them are veterans who are close to their late career. Due to the outbreak, their training status is uncertain. If the Olympic Games are postponed for up to one year, it is unknown whether these veterans' competitive status can be guaranteed, which is a great regret for them. Of course, in the face of sudden changes, changing the time of the Olympic Games is a last resort and requires the difficult choice of "the two evils and the right to the least."

Not only that, the one-year delay of the Tokyo Olympics will also have an unknown impact on the next Olympic cycle. Can the athletes adapt to the 2024 Paris Olympics, which has only three years of preparation time? As a chain reaction, will the Paris Olympics time continue to be delayed? Will the world championships of international individual sports organizations also be adjusted simultaneously? The competitive issues and interests involved in all these aspects require rigorous and professional calculation and evaluation.

On March 23, local time, with the Tokyo Olympic Games originally scheduled to open on July 24, approaching, the Olympic elements can be seen everywhere in Tokyo, Japan.

Not to mention that 2022 is an established sports year. The Beijing Winter Olympics, Football World Cup, and Hangzhou Asian Games will be held in the same year. If 2021 is crowded into the European Football Cup, the America ’s Cup and the Tokyo Olympic Games, and the 2021 China Club World Cup with uncertain prospects, many world-class large-scale events will be held in less than two years. The International Olympic Committee, International Football Whether the United Nations Federation and other international individual sports organizations can reasonably coordinate their work, and whether sponsors and spectators will experience aesthetic fatigue, these factors need further observation. (Finish)