The prospect of the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics, which will open on July 24 due to the global expansion of Corona 19, will be the first time in history to be held without crowds, `` no crowds ''. Major media around the world, including the New York Times, the BBC, and the Yomiuri Shimbun, have recently reported that if the Tokyo Olympics cannot be held normally, it may become an "unrelated Olympics." The dominant point was that on the 2nd, Stephen Park, the performance manager of the British cycling team, was the only 'personal opinion' that was hardly feasible when he first proposed 'Attack Olympics', but the atmosphere changed in a few days. .

Thomas Bach, chairman of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), who has the power to determine the fate of the Tokyo Olympics, has not officially commented on cancellations or delays, saying, "We will not pour oil on our speculations." But he laid a double track to follow the recommendations of the World Health Organization. If WHO declares 'pandemic' (global pandemic), it is analyzed as the intention to make some kind of decision. If Corona 19 doesn't end early and spreads more likely, WHO is likely to declare 'pandemic' within this month.

I have heard various opinions from various domestic experts regarding the future of the Tokyo Olympics. The opinions of those who are well-versed in the Olympic situation, including those of the Korean Sports Association, and overseas media reports are summed up in the following scenario.
● Postponed to fall this year?

If Corona 19 doesn't sink by the end of May, it will postpone the Tokyo Olympics after October. However, in this case, it is clear that the NBC, the exclusive monopoly in the US, will oppose the US basketball, US football, and the Major League Postseason. The voice is absolute because NBC offers more than half of the world's Olympic rights. In addition, European professional soccer teams such as England Premier League are in full swing. All reservations, such as accommodations and tickets, are difficult to list. It's a matter of controversy over who will bear this huge loss, which is likely to be trillions. Therefore, delaying the opening of the Tokyo Olympics to this fall is an easy choice for the IOC.

● Postponed to July next year?

The agreement between the IOC and the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee states that the Games will be held by the end of this year. Even if the agreement is postponed to July next year, the Tokyo Organizing Committee must spend more than 100 billion won more than necessary. The new athlete village is also a problem. When the Olympics and Paralympics are over, the general public will move in. If you postpone the Olympics next year, you will have to stay late and manage for a year or dozens of apartments. In addition, next summer, large international competitions such as World Athletics Championships, World Swimming Championships and Summer Universiade are scheduled. With this in mind, postponing to July next year is a less likely scenario.

● Change to another city?

This scenario changes the venue of the 2020 Summer Olympics to London or another city. In London, I had the 2012 Olympics, so I had enough infrastructure such as a stadium. But the biggest problem is accommodation. More than 10,000 athletes, in particular, have to stay in a heavily guarded village rather than a hotel for safety reasons, and it is impossible to arrange an athlete village within two to three months. Because of this, suddenly changing the venue to another city is a difficult card to think.
● Cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics?

If the Tokyo Olympics are completely canceled, both the IOC and the Japanese government will be hit hard. First, the IOC loses about 5 trillion won in total, including the rights to broadcast and sponsorship fees. Of course, it is known that the IOC has insured against this situation, but it is certain that the amount to be compensated for will be quite low. It's also fatal to Chairman Thomas Bach. This is because the virus has left a bad spot for the first Olympics. His eight-year term ends next year. The rules allow for elections for a four-year term, but if the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, his influence will be greatly diminished. Even the Japanese government, who spent more than 20 trillion won to prepare for the Tokyo Olympics, is completely unacceptable. Best of all, irreversible damage is expected for athletes from over 200 countries who have sweated for the Olympics.

Except for the four scenarios, the only thing left to do is the Olympic Games. Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) recently reported that it proposed the IOC. If the WHO declares 'pandemic' in May, the IOC will have to make a decision. The decision is one of two things: 'Cancel' or 'Unrelated Olympics'.
Whether or not the "non- olympic Olympics" are going to take place for the first time in history depends on the decision of the Japanese government, more specifically Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese government is currently thinking of delaying since October of this year if it is not possible to hold the summit as much as possible. Mr. Abe promoted revival and reconstruction as the motto of the Olympics. And this year, we have set an ambitious goal of attracting 40 million tourists.

In this sense, 'unrelated Olympics' must be a 'nightmare' that is not entirely canceled or much different. The global spread of Corona 19 highlights how Abe will finally make a decision if the IOC offers the Japanese government an "unrelated Olympics."

(Photo = Getty Images Korea)