Postponement of the battle for the fall, revenge with McGregor or a duel with Gatgey: what awaits Nurmagomedov in case of Ferguson's injury

The transfer of the battle for the fall

Scheduled for April 18, the fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson is one of the most anticipated not only in 2020, but also in lightweight overall. This is due to the fact that over the past few years, the American was considered the most dangerous opponent for the Russian and the only fighter capable of interrupting his impressive win-win series.

Tony is spoken of as 12 victories in a row, and the first number in the lightweight rating, which is a good reason for granting him a delay in case of injury. Moreover, earlier he repeatedly fought with microdamages and returned to the system as quickly as possible. It’s enough to recall that in April 2018, he broke a knee ligament, because of which he could not fight with Habib for the title at UFC 223. However, only six months later he returned to the cage and dealt with Anthony Pettis in a beautiful manner.

Also, the decision of the leadership of the promotion may be affected by the fact that this fight is needed not only by Ferguson, but also by Nurmagomedov. The champion has repeatedly said that he is personally interested in this duel and, if necessary, will try to convince the management to arrange a respite. Habib wants to prove that many experts were mistaken in calling the American a serious rival. The confident victory of the Russians will finally close this question and will confirm its status as the strongest lightweight of our time.

Ferguson's denial of the status of the first applicant

However, it should not be ruled out that Dana White would not be so supportive of Ferguson. Earlier, the head of the UFC had already promised to organize a fight between two lightweight stars, but the impressive successes of both forced him to make a fifth attempt. However, in the event of another injury to Tony, he may finally be disappointed in the first issue of the rating and close that way to the belt.

It is worth noting that such a decision by White will be difficult to call obviously wrong. It must be understood that the promotion spends serious money on the promotion of fights and is deprived of the opportunity to constantly change the participants in the title battle. In the end, this calls into question the holding of the tournament itself. So, in the history of the UFC, there are cases when problems with the main fight of the evening led to the cancellation of the entire show. This is exactly what happened in 2012, when Dan Henderson was injured and could not face off with John Jones. The current light heavyweight champion did not agree to replace the opponent, and the organizers had to return the money for the tickets.

Sure, over the years, the UFC has begun to act smarter and keep several replacement candidates, but they do not always turn out to be equivalent. It is enough to recall the previous attempt to organize the battle of Habib and Tony. The American was injured, and instead of him came only the 11th number of the ranking table. As a result, even a high-profile scandal involving Conor McGregor in the parking lot of the Barclays arena failed to raise interest in the tournament. This is confirmed by the extremely low sales of paid broadcasts - only 350 thousand according to Tapology statistics.

Thus, in the event of another injury, the UFC is likely to force Ferguson to re-fight for the status of the applicant, which will force him to go through duel again with the top fighters of the division. Considering Justin Gatgie, who has gained form, who has made significant progress, Dustin Porrier, and Conor McGregor triumphantly returned to the octagon, it will be very difficult to get to Nurmagomedov.

Revenge Nurmagomedova with McGregor

If Ferguson still does not appear at the UFC 249 tournament, then McGregor looks the most likely candidate for his replacement. White himself has already admitted that he intends to arrange a rematch between the athletes in the fall of 2020, but Ferguson's injury could postpone his date to an earlier date. In addition, the Irishman himself admitted that he would train hard on the eve of the show in Brooklyn, to be ready to enter the cage instead of an American or a Russian.

There is no doubt that the UFC leadership is also interested in this, because a potential revenge between Nurmagomedov and McGregor is almost guaranteed to bring the organization a record profit. Their first fight has already become the leader in the number of paid broadcast sales (2.4 million), and the rematch has a chance to conquer the 3 million mark.

However, an obstacle to the implementation of such a scenario may be Nurmagomedov. He repeatedly said that he did not intend to fight McGregor in the near future and was unlikely to change his mind. The athletes did not have a contract for the fight, which is why Habib is free to follow Jones’s example and refuse a duel with a reserve vis-a-vis. True, this can spoil the relationship between him and White, which could negatively affect his prospects in the promotion. In particular, Dana has the right to deprive the champion of his legal title, which is hardly part of Khabib’s plans.

Getgy's replacement

This option is less likely, but it is also impossible to sweep it. At the moment, Gatgi is considered to be one of the most dangerous lightweights in the world, which is confirmed by three early victories in a row. For a year and a half, he knocked out three top fighters of the division and managed to rehabilitate himself for losing to Dustin Porrier and Eddie Alvarez.

It is worth noting that Gatji's skill set is quite capable of making him one of the most uncomfortable rivals for Nurmagomedov. Recently, he has made significant progress in the stance and has stopped meeting all the head bangs. In addition, he has solid experience in the fight, which is confirmed by the performances in the first division of the NCAA. In addition, Justin is a physically strong athlete, which McGregor and Porrier lacked.

However, the stumbling block may be the complicated relationship between Gatgey and White. As the president of the UFC said, the athlete repeatedly refused to fight that he does not like the leadership of the promotion. It is used to encouraging selfless athletes who are ready to enter the octagon at any time, and not those who choose their opponents.

The second attempt to fight Holloway

A possible cancellation of the match with Ferguson will invariably lead to the fact that several fighters will line up at once in the hope of getting a chance to compete for the title. It can be assumed that one of them will be former featherweight champion Max Holloway. Earlier, the Hawaiian has repeatedly expressed a desire to fight with Nurmagomedov, and a tournament in Brooklyn can be an ideal option.

Holloway has long hinted at a possible transition to lightweight due to problems with the fit. And this is not surprising, because the Hawaiian’s height is 180 cm, and over the years it becomes harder to lose up to 65 kg. It is possible that this was the reason for such an inexpressive performance of Max in the battle with Alexander Volkanovsky, interrupting his winning streak in the featherweight category of 13 battles in a row.

At the moment, Holloway is not bound by champion obligations, which opens the way for him to the division up to 70 kg. He may well give up revenge with Volkanovsky and appear in a more convenient weight for him. Unlike Gatgy, he was always well quoted in the UFC, as a result of which White is unlikely to stand between him and Nurmagomedov.

Given the insufficient experience in the fight, Max is unlikely to have a lot of chances in a duel with Habib, but for some time he will definitely try to shoot him from a distance. In addition, Holloway does not take courage, so the Russian is not worth counting on an easy walk.