Limit on legionnaires, financial fair play and Portuguese take-off: why Russia's failures in European competitions can become systemic

Terrifying result and cowardly football

In the summer, few could have imagined that the new season would turn out to be so unfortunate for Russia. Over the past 12 years, the country has consistently scored nine or more points in the ranking of UEFA. The only exceptions were the 2009/10 season, when domestic teams received only 6.166, while CSKA reached the quarterfinals of the Champions League, and the 2018/19 season got 7.583 points.

Then it seemed that such a result was just a coincidence, but the current season has indicated more than an unpleasant pattern. 4,666 points is the worst result in the last 13 years and the new reality of domestic football in European competition. At the same time, not a single team managed to break into the playoffs.

On the one hand, what happened can be called a coincidence. In “Spartak” and “Krasnodar” there were serious personnel changes. Zenit was out of luck somewhere, as did Lokomotiv in matches against Juventus, while CSKA was ruined by inexperience and the need to break into three fronts.

However, referring to particulars this time will not work. Unfortunately, a lot of evidence suggests that in the future, at least with six clubs in European competition, Russia's affairs will only get worse. Firstly, the country simply does not have a sixth strong club that is able to properly supplement the odds table. Arsenal took off this season in the first qualifying round of the Europa League. “Ufa” in the past performed much more worthy, but also did not reach the group stage.

Here you can also recall “Amkar”, “Rostov”, “Alania”, “Siberia”, which in different years did not succeed in European competitions. With five clubs, the Russian representation is much stronger, and the points scored do not have to be divided into six. However, with six teams, the country gave out strong seasons and scored more than ten points on average.

But the current Euro season made us talk about a much more alarming trend. Russian teams scored only 10 victories in 34 matches and scored a total of 31 goals. Moreover, if we discard qualification games, then twice in a match our clubs differed in only five cases, and even then in matches with rivals of a similar level or inferior in class (Bayer, Trabzonspor - twice, Benfica, Lyon ").

In most meetings, domestic teams showed extreme poverty of coaching ideas and most often acted pragmatically or purely from the defense. As a result, in the final round of the group stage of the Champions League and LES, this resulted in the fact that Zenit, Lokomotiv and Krasnodar did not strike a single blow from the penalty area, and this despite the fact that Petersburgers and Southerners needed to win.

From the limit to the holding system

The current failure can only be the beginning of a serious decline in Russian football in European competition. Here it’s worth talking about a whole range of reasons, among which the departure from domestic clubs of really big money. Even top clubs can no longer afford truly serious expenses.

In addition, now you need to pay attention to strict financial fair-play. The same “Zenith” in the summer acquired Malcolm for € 40 million, which as a result did not play a minute in the Champions League due to an injury, but in the winter sold Leandro Paredes to PSG for a similar amount.

Other teams can not afford such expenses in principle. True, the last off-season served as a refutation, because in total Russian teams spent € 240 million. But this is an exception to the rule, because in the coming years they will be forced to save, which means that they’ll make a difference in European competitions by acquiring expensive foreigners will not work.

In the coming season, the RPL will adopt a new limit on foreign players, which will only add headaches to coaches. Only eight players from other countries can be included in the application. Their place in the starting lineup will be unlimited, but we must not forget about possible injuries and disqualifications. And if now the clubs have the opportunity to keep more than ten foreigners in the application and rotate the roster in different tournaments, then in the near future there will be no such option, which will definitely affect the results.

Not surprisingly, in this situation, many began to demand the abolition of the limit on foreign players. They also talked about the return of Russian football to the spring-autumn system, in which CSKA and Zenit won the UEFA Cup. Moreover, the reform with the synchronization of the domestic championship with most European lobbied just the top clubs, who were unhappy that from qualification in European cups to the start they sometimes take nine months.

However, even under the new system, Russia previously successfully performed in European competitions, and in the 2017/18 season it scored a record 12.600 points for itself. At the same time, domestic teams, as in the old days, continue to play extremely unsuccessfully in November-December, as if there was no transition to another scheme at all.

Farewell to sixth place and the new European Cup

One way or another, a serious recession may lead to the fact that Russia will not soon regain its place in the top 6 of the UEFA rating, and, consequently, the right to place three clubs in the Champions League. Already at the end of the current season, the gap from the sixth line can reach ten points in the worst case, because the Portuguese clubs are showing decent results.

Four teams from this country made it to the playoffs of the Europa League right away and may well be willing to win the tournament, as it was in the 2010/11 season, when Porto, Benfica and Braga reached the semifinals LE, and the first two subsequently played the trophy.

According to the results of the group stage, the country scored 9,700 points and is second only to England, Spain, Germany and Italy in this indicator. At the same time, Portugal approached France coming in fifth place. It is possible that already in the next season the country will try to get around it and break into the top five.

Russia has yet to spend another season with six teams, which means that domestic football will again suffer from a serious shortage of points. True, then the situation may change, since the country will again begin to exhibit only five clubs in European competitions. And then Portugal will already be in a difficult position, because it will have to go in the shoes of a competitor.

However, Russia is unlikely to fly out of the top 15 rating, and, therefore, will still be able to delegate two clubs to the Champions League (but only one to the group stage). Only in the worst case, subject to a recession over several seasons, can a country roll back to the basement of the second ten and remain with one team in the Champions League, as it was in the early and mid-2000s.

At the same time, in 2021, the third European Cup starts - the League of Conferences. If Russia by that time remains in seventh place, it will delegate two teams to the new tournament, two to the Champions League and only one to the LE.