• Market: European registrations down 8.6% in August and Spain leads the falls
  • Industry "The governments of China and the US support the car more"

Global vehicle sales fell 6.4% in the first half of 2019. Sales decreased in all major markets with the exception of Central and Eastern Europe, which experienced a slight recovery of 0.5%, according to a report from the Standard & Poor's rating agency. It explains that the initial forecast of the manufacturers that the second part of the year was more positive seems to be not so clear today; some doubts that would also affect the entire 2020 exercise.

S&P notes that "economic conditions have worsened globally as a result of the trade war between the US and China, which translates into a recession in world trade. The risk of a Brexit without agreement and the greater likelihood of a recession in the US, consumer confidence and, consequently, the prospects for car sales in the next two years will decrease. "

On the other hand, the report recalls that the margins of the manufacturers of generalist brands will be reduced because they will be forced to invest to transform their range towards electrification and thus comply in Europe with the new emission regulations of 95 grams of CO2 planned for 2021. They should integrate more connectivity equipment and more autonomous driving development.

All this would raise production costs and result in a rise in vehicle prices. In the last Frankfurt Motor Show, Carlos Tavares , executive president of Grupo PSA warned that he was not going to sell cars losing money for each unit sold.

S&P says that manufacturers, like the rest of companies in different sectors, have in their favor that low price of money, which lowers the financing of the transformation of the automotive industry. However, sales for 2019 will fall between 2% and 3%, "and there will be no growth during 2020-2021".

Regions

In Europe , with a Germany whose sales of cars have grown 0.9%, being the only country of the big ones whose market is in positive, there will be stability in the deliveries in the next two years. Recent IMF forecasts, which warn of a slowdown and even a possible recession in Germany, along with the eternal problem of Brexit, anticipate a deterioration in industrial activity.

However, for a drastic drop in sales, serious job destruction in the region would be needed, something that seems unlikely today. But S&P does imply that the doubts would cause both fleet managers and families to delay their purchase decisions until well into 2020. And if they have to buy an electric one, they would wait for public aid to be defined for the purchase of these cars. in each country.

In the US, American automakers would not suffer in their local sales the tension between the Donald Trump government and China over tariffs. Now, the importance of the Asian giant for General Motors is key. They would also be affected if the US entered into a tariff conflict with Japan. And, of course, if the American president continues to redefine the trade agreement with Mexico.

If American manufacturers were forced to increase production in the US with a more expensive manufacturing cost, American customers would see how the prices of cars would rise. However, the pick-up market, which represents 13%, would remain stable supporting the margins of the companies.

Finally, in China it seems that government stimuli have not affected the market. It fell 11% until August. The commitment to electrification in large cities to improve air quality does not bear fruit. Sales of plug-in hybrids have risen 40%, but only 5% of total sales.

Spain suspends in electric

Electromobility barometer

According to the Anfac report, in the last quarter Spain improves its score in pre-injection of electromobility, from 15 points to 16.1 out of 100 but fails to improve the position. It remains at the tail of Europe, just ahead of Italy.

Reload Asturias leads recharge infrastructures, with a compliance level of 30.8 points out of 100. Catalonia is second with 27.3 compliance points and Madrid only has 14.7 points out of 100.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • Engine

New Start a new era in Porsche

Try an efficient and economical alternative to travel

The Opel Astra launches improvements and engines to reduce consumption and emissions