In the financial market upheaval, to the top-level meetings of central banks in developed countries August 19th 4:41
Following the intensifying conflict between the United States and China over trade friction, the stock market in the United States recorded the largest decline last week, and the financial market continues to be upset. Under these circumstances, the top central bank leaders in developed countries are paying attention to what kind of message they give to the market stability and concerns about the slowdown of the global economy at a meeting held in the US this weekend.
The financial markets of the world continued to shake this month, and the New York stock market's Dow average share price was $ 800 on the 14th and recorded the biggest decline, but it was safer to avoid risk. As the funds flow into the fixed income market, US long-term interest rates have become record lows.
The background is the intensifying conflict between US and China.
As the Trump administration clarified its strict attitude to add tariffs on almost all imported goods from China, the Chinese currency and renminbi have dropped, and the conflict between the two countries has spread to foreign exchange.
Although the global economy continues to grow, in addition to the slowdown in China, Germany and other European countries do not appear, so to speak, the expansion of the US economy is leading the way.
The observation that the American economy may fall into a recession due to the confrontation with China has led to a change in the financial market.
Under these circumstances, executives from the central banks of developed countries will meet annually at Jackson Hole in the US starting this week.
At the meeting, the focus is on what kind of message to issue in response to concerns about market stability and the global economic slowdown.
In particular, if the market turmoil continues, it may lead to a negative appreciation of the yen for the Japanese economy, and attention is paid to whether or not FRB = Chairman of the Federal Reserve's Powell will refer to additional rate cuts. .
What are the experts' attention points?
In Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, experts point out that the focus is on how much to refer to the subsequent monetary policy policy, suggesting an additional rate cut next month that the market expects.
Aichi Amemiya, a senior economist with Nomura Securities, who has been analyzing the US economy for more than 10 years in New York, said about last week's movement in the New York market: `` Concerns about overseas and geopolitical risks rather than the bad US economy itself. "This is a widespread effect," and expressed the recognition that the financial market may continue to shake for the time being.
In addition, Mr. Amemiya said, “How much will President Powell step into the next rate cut in the talk? The market has factored in a lot of rate cuts, but it's probably not a “full answer.” It doesn't give a full answer, but it doesn't mean that the market expects it. The focus is on how to achieve that balance. "
On the other hand, financial authorities in Japan and the euro area are expected to gather at Jackson Hole, but Mr. Amemiya said that in Japan and Europe, where there is little room for monetary easing compared to the United States, in addition to monetary policy, to support the economy It is pointed out that there is a possibility that discussions will also take place on the fiscal policy.