The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has reviewed the damage assumptions for the earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area for the first time in 10 years.


Due to the progress of earthquake resistance of buildings, the number of deaths was about 6150, which is about 30% less than the previous assumption. It is pointed out that there is a risk of various damages even after an earthquake, such as inclusion, so-called "earthquake-related death".

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government held a disaster prevention conference on the 25th and reviewed the damage estimation in the event of an earthquake directly beneath the capital for the first time in 10 years.



The most serious damage is assumed to be when a "earthquake directly beneath the southern part of the city" occurs at a magnitude of 7.3 at 6 pm in winter at a wind speed of 8 meters, and shaking with a seismic intensity of 7 is observed in 11 wards such as Koto Ward and Edogawa Ward. However, about 60% of the 23 wards have a seismic intensity of 6 or higher.



In addition, about 82,200 buildings will be completely destroyed, and about 112,200 will be destroyed by fire.



It is estimated that about 6,150 people will be killed and more than 93,400 will be injured due to such damage.



Although it is not possible to simply compare the earthquakes that were assumed 10 years ago because the earthquakes were different, the estimated number of deaths this time is more than 30%, which is about 3,500 less than the previous time.



The city explains that this was affected by the earthquake resistance of buildings that have progressed over the last 10 years.



On the other hand, in this assumption, we will newly incorporate a "disaster scenario" that concretely shows in chronological order over a month or more how the impact on life and damage to lifelines will change after the earthquake. I did.



Of these, in the so-called "earthquake-related deaths," deaths due to economy class syndrome caused by van-dwelling a few days after the earthquake, and suicides due to mental or physical disorders in an unfamiliar environment more than a month later. Etc. are assumed.