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CSU leader Söder: Good prospects for another term as Bavarian Prime Minister

Photo: Peter Kneffel / dpa

Two and a half weeks before the state elections in Bavaria, the CSU is far ahead of its competitors. This is the result of a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Civey for SPIEGEL and the »Augsburger Allgemeine«.

In the Sunday question, the CSU comes to 38 percent. The Free Voters (14 percent), the Greens (14 percent) and the AfD (13 percent) follow at a great distance.

The SPD remains in the single-digit range with 9 percent, the FDP would no longer be represented in the Munich state parliament with a vote share of 4 percent. As in the past, the Left Party would be left out (2 percent).

(Read more about the Civey methodology here.)

CSU leader Markus Söder could thus remain prime minister and continue the previous coalition with the Free Voters. Söder rejects a mathematically equally possible black-green alliance. Despite the affair over an anti-Semitic leaflet, he has spoken out in favour of continuing to govern with the Free Voters of Deputy Prime Minister and Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger.

38 percent for the CSU is about as much as it had achieved before the leaflet affair became known. But it is about five percentage points lower than their previous annual highs.

With 38 percent, the CSU would roughly maintain its share of the vote from 2018, when it reached 37.2 percent in the election. Historically, this would be a rather weak result for the Christian Socialists, as they achieved an absolute majority of seats in the Munich state parliament ten years ago.

In Bavaria, about ten million people are entitled to elect a new state parliament on October 8. The opinion research institute Civey, in cooperation with the »Augsburger Allgemeine« and the SPIEGEL, asks the Sunday question every two weeks. The election polls are not forecasts of the election outcome. They merely reflect the political mood.