KIEV – A massive event in Russia a few days ago appeared to be a real and serious threat to the regime in Moscow, to the extent that the latter took many political and security measures on a large scale.
But the Wagner Group's insurgency ended quickly, contrary to most expectations, ending a joy hastened by Kiev and dashing its hope of an internal conflict that would distract Russia in the midst of the ongoing war.
Here, officials and analysts in Ukraine have entered the stage of rethinking and calculating, coming up with less positive opinions and statements this time, or even negative, warning of the repercussions of the "insurgency incident", based on a number of reasons to question its truth.
Belarusian failed measure
Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council touched on long-standing differences between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.
Wide differences over Minsk's domestic and foreign policies subsided in August 2018, when most neighboring countries and the world did not recognize Lukashenko's victory in the presidential elections, unlike Putin, who took advantage of this to return Lukashenko to his side and later pressure him as the only party that supports his stay in power, as Ukrainians see.
In this context, says the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov, that "the Belarusian dictator is a very cunning and unscrupulous person, I do not rule out that Lukashenko is involved in the actions of President Wagner, orchestrating a coup attempt in Russia," according to his description of Al Jazeera Net.
Political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said, "This is not excluded, otherwise what is the secret of the relationship of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin with Lukashenko, and his quick response to his mediation, as has been said."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Kovalenko added, "This view is supported by information circulated by the media today, about the interaction with the insurgency did not live up to what Prigozhin wanted inside Russia at the level of officials and army leaders, including also that only 8,200 of his forces were ready to move forward, and they did not approach <> kilometers from Moscow as announced."
Russian intelligence operation
But what if it were all a Russian intelligence industry; a major deception whose goals are all in Russia's interest, and its ongoing war on Ukraine?
On this opinion, he spoke with Al Jazeera Net political blogger Andrey Sudov, he said, "What happened in Russia was a play believed by many, and this was shown through its quick end, which achieved the end, without negatively affecting society and the economy."
"Whatever the degree of disagreement between Prigozhin and Defense Minister Shoigu, we must not forget that Wagner is a Russian industry, representing Russia's military grip regionally and internationally; therefore, its rebellion, if it happens, would be disastrous for it; and then it cannot end in this very simple and naïve way," Sudov said.
"In Russia, the description of the special operation in Ukraine as a war that exposes its owner to 7 years in prison, while the attempt to carry out a military coup, the control of provinces with millions of inhabitants, the downing of several planes and the capture of soldiers is a crime punishable by deportation to Belarus," Sudov said.
Identify and neutralize "traitors"
According to political analyst Oleksandr Yeremenko, "The insurgency was a Russian intelligence operation, aimed at identifying suspected loyalty from Russian officials, especially around Putin, who responded to Prigozhin's calls or facilitated him in the sensitive provinces he controlled."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Yeremenko believes that "the fate of these traitors in the eyes of the Kremlin will be revealed in the coming days, from exclusion from positions, or liquidation of contrived traffic accidents or other, or assassination exploited to accuse Ukraine, and mobilize more against it," he said.
Redeployment of troops
For the second day in a row, Ukrainians are talking about sending groups of Wagner forces to the burning eastern fronts, from which they had emerged before the rebellion.
Hana Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, has confirmed this, but others fear the insurgency could be an excuse to move large numbers of special forces to other locations, bringing the threat back to Kiev from the north.
In this context, political analyst Oleksandr Yeremenko believes that "Belarusian mediation did not come from a vacuum, as it is the main destination for the Wagner rebel forces, and Ahmed's Chechen forces, which wanted to eliminate their rebellion in Rostov, have not arrived yet, and talk about them ended suddenly."
"Poland declared its army on alert at the beginning of the Prigozhin movement, although it was far from Rostov and Moscow, but it was skeptical of the reality of the rebellion and feared the possibility of such forces moving to neighboring Belarus," Yeremenko said.
If true, it justifies Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausida's call for a strengthening of NATO's eastern flank, close to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine together.
Ukrainian reassurance and promise
If this view is also true, it justifies the assertion of the commander of Ukrainian forces in the north, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayef, that "if the enemy tries to cross the border from Belarus, it will be suicide for him."
Nayef also stressed that "the situation in the northern area of operations remains stable and under control, and so far there is no build-up of equipment or manpower belonging to the enemy."
But he pointed out that "Ukrainian forces continue to build defensive fortifications on the border, which are monitored and protected around the clock, seven days a week."