No one knows how Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine will end, but Zbigniew Brzezinski, a strategic thinker and national security adviser under U.S. President Jimmy Carter, identified the risks in 1994 in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine in which he said, "Without Ukraine, Russia will not remain an empire."
In this introduction, Walter Russell Mead, in his column in the Wall Street Journal, argues that Putin fully agrees with Brzezinski, and for him and his Russian nationalist followers, "Russia is an empire or nothing at all."
This means that a Ukrainian victory – which can be described as the end of the conflict in which Ukraine, with all or most of its native territory, remains independent of Moscow and allied with the West – would represent a geopolitical earthquake. The result would be the disappearance of Russia, which Europe had known and feared since the eighteenth century, and whose enormous presence was on the horizon and was determined to expand westward.
Putin needs the people of Ukraine to consolidate the dominance of the Orthodox Slavs in the Russian Federation, because without them, in the face of the rising population of Central Asian countries since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian nationalists expect nothing but death and collapse.
Putin needs the people of Ukraine to strengthen the dominance of the Orthodox Slavs in the Russian Federation, because without them, in the face of the rising population of Central Asian countries since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian nationalists expect nothing but death and collapse.
These considerations underscore how committed hardline Russian nationalists are to victory in Ukraine, and how important Russia's global defeat is.
A Ukrainian victory would leave the weak and discredited Kremlin at the mercy of powerful China, a rising Central Asian in the east, a renewed security alliance in the west and restive ethnic minorities back home, and a Ukrainian victory would pose a serious political challenge to Moscow.
A Russian defeat would fundamentally strengthen America's grip globally, and Kiev's victory would significantly strengthen U.S. and Western standing.
Ukraine's victorious emergence will encourage Poland, the Baltic states and Scandinavia to join a pro-bloc to defend European countries and strengthen the alliance with the Americans, he said.
Mead added that victory over Russia would reshape European politics as well as the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
He ended his article by recalling that not all the news will be good, as Turkey, under President Tayyip Erdogan, will only become more resilient if its fear of Russia fades. A weak and disgruntled Kremlin could throw itself into China's foreseeable embrace, and Russian instability could pose huge security challenges.