I was standing on the streets of lower Manhattan when the indictment, which included accounting offences, was brought in April this year. The streets were clogged and protesters—for and against—the former president lined the streets of New York. The prosecution was weak at times and immediately suspicions were raised of a politically driven process. The same arguments are also mentioned this time, but an indictment concerning a possible violation of the Espionage Act has a completely different weight and consequence.
A more charged prosecution
Polls show that voters are much more concerned about the impeachment that now seems to be in store for Donald Trump – compared to the legal investigation underway in New York. A federal crime, where the handling of classified material can affect the country's intelligence work and risks putting individual whistleblowers in great danger, has a completely different impact on voters.
A recent YouGov poll shows that 66% of voters consider a suspected breach of the Espionage Act to be serious and among independent, centrist voters, a clear majority also take the suspicions seriously. This is a problem because a possible trial will certainly not take place before the election spurt in just over a year's time.
The reactions will determine the choice
The 2024 presidential election will be decided in a few states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona – to name a few of the key states. In most parts of the United States, the outcome is already obvious. Therefore, relatively small voter movements between the parties are required to decide the battles in these states. And the independent voters, especially in America's suburbs, are often fickle. Therefore, the reaction to the impeachment is of paramount importance to Trump's campaign.
In addition, Donald Trump has also challenged the support of conservative Christian voters. The story surrounding the former president's alleged affair with former star Stormy Daniels has provoked strong moral reactions. So far, however, the Christian right has been faithful to Trump largely because of his opposition to abortion.
Trump takes the initiative
There is no doubt that Donald Trump is now doing his utmost to now steer the agenda. It is, of course, no coincidence that he quickly informed the American population of an upcoming indictment and even the exact time at which he will appear in the courtroom in Miami. It is about mobilising core voters and arousing public opinion against the prosecution.
It should be said that President Biden was also caught with secret documents in his home, but many recall Trump's slogan from the 2016 election campaign: "lock her up". The slogans were directed at Hillary Clinton's handling of secret documents in her private email inbox. Now the spotlight is on Donald Trump – for similar reasons.