Federal indictment of Donald Trump: what are the consequences?

The ultra-favorite of the Republican camp for the presidential election in 2024, Donald Trump is summoned Tuesday, June 13 before the federal court in Miami. The indictment has not been made public, but according to his lawyers, he is charged with illegal retention of state secrets and obstruction of justice and false statements. Can this ultimate affair hinder the campaign of the presidential candidate of 2024?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, October 9, 2022. © Matt York / AP

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The question arises all the more since the former president is already caught in a judicial storm. He is facing his first indictment in New York for buying the silence of a porn actress before the 2016 presidential election. He is also in the crosshairs of the Justice Department for his alleged role in the attack on Congress by his supporters on January 6, 2021. This case of classified documents found in his Mar-a-Lago residence is, along with the Capitol case, for which he is not yet prosecuted, by far the most serious since he faces up to 20 years in prison.

But will he be condemned? Some experts doubt it. They argue that it will be difficult to prove that Trump intentionally sought to obstruct justice. Even if he were sentenced to prison before the election, he could legally remain a candidate. Politically, it is likely that this will not discourage his supporters who, so far, fully adhere to his accusations of political machination. The outcome of the election would then be crucial: a victory would protect him from prison. Not a defeat.

In any case, in both criminal and civil cases, Donald Trump often disputes the facts. He appeals and it gives him time to use his business as fuel in his campaign.

Jump in polls since first indictment

He jumped in the polls after his first indictment in March 2023 by denouncing a conspiracy against him. Even his most serious opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has come to his defense: it is a conspiracy by Democrats to prevent him from running in 2024.

By leaving the White House in 2020, Donald Trump had taken away many classified documents, found at his home last year by the FBI. The applicant denies the facts, but still without giving a clear explanation as to the presence of these sensitive documents at his home.

>> Read also: International guest - Indictment of Trump: "The accumulation of cases could cost him a 2nd time the election"

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• United States
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