"We see a clear majority for the opposition of six percentage points. But at the same time, we should remember that such a preponderance is not huge, since it only takes three percentage points of voters to move for it to be completely even," says Toivo Sjörén, head of forecasting at Kantar Public.
The Social Democrats remain at high levels, but the advantage for the combined opposition decreases by a couple of percentage points compared with May's voter barometer from Kantar Public.
Voter barometer for June 2023, according to Kantar Public. Photo: SVT grafik
One in four changes parties
At the same time, the current state of public opinion conceals a great deal of mobility in the electorate. According to Toivo Sjörén, almost a quarter of voters have switched parties since the parliamentary election last autumn. We have seen that voter mobility is great after a parliamentary election, but now it is greater than before. And above all, this shows that the parties can never be complacent about a given opinons. The scene can change quickly.
In the battle for second place, it is again even. The Sweden Democrats' negative trend seems to have stopped and the Moderates no longer have an obvious advantage. According to Toivo Sjörén, the so-called cultural debate may have helped the Sweden Democrats break their decline, for example the party's criticism of drag queens who read fairy tales in libraries.
During the parliamentary lockdown
Several parties have major problems in that they are close to or below the Riksdag threshold, but according to Toivo Sjörén, it is too far until the next Riksdag election to count out any of these parties. Everyone has their own specific problems, but in a way they share the same challenge, namely to start working now to sharpen the party's profile.
"For them to succeed, they must at least be strong on one issue. They don't have to have a breadth, but they need to have a clear profile issue among voters," says Toivo Sjörén.