Employing crises and stirring up hatred. How is the AfD raising its popularity in Germany?

Berlin- "Political earthquake in Berlin and shock after (AfD) gets records", "These results should be a warning to all democratic parties", "(AfD) is back again".

With these headlines, conservative, yellow and even liberal left German newspapers and magazines covered the results of the latest poll, which gave the right-wing populist party (the Alternative) 18% of the German vote and equalized it with the Social Democrats, the party of current Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The main question in the poll, which was supervised by the first German television channel ARD, was as follows: Which parties would vote if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday?

18% responded by choosing the Alternative Party (AfD) on an equal basis with the Social Democratic Party, while the Greens, the smallest partner in the government coalition, received 15%, its liberal counterpart 7%, the largest percentage 29% for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the remaining percentage received other small parties.

The results whetted the appetite of pollsters, which have recently been conducting new polls, with almost the same shocking figures, with the INSA giving the Alternative 19% and plunging the Greens and Liberals to 13%.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeated a phrase he had said in 2016 when he was mayor of Hamburg: "The Bad Mood" (meaning the Alternative for Change) party is taking advantage of Europe's turbulent times, commenting on the results at an event organized by the weekly Die Zeit in his hometown of Hamburg.

The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), accused of a more far-right rhetoric, said its president, Friedrich Merz, "we have nothing to do with the AfD," in a statement akin to self-defense, at a time when the Greens and liberals do not seem to have absorbed the shock to date.

Olaf Scholz said AfD was taking advantage of Europe's turbulent times (Reuters)

Search for causes

Details of the poll showed that 67% of those who chose the Alternative Party preferred it over others not because of conviction in its electoral program, but because they were frustrated with the performance of other parties, while the rest is counted on traditional voters classified as extreme right or right-wing populists.

This is what Hayo Funke, a lecturer in populist and extreme right-wing affairs at the Free University of Berlin, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net.

Funke gave three reasons for these results, saying that "citizens' frustration and disillusionment with the policy of the government coalition, and the differences between its three parties that come out from time to time, have caused the level of credibility needed in the policy of the coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals."

He added that the crises led by the war in Ukraine, as well as the economic crisis caused by high prices and high inflation, are the second reason for this development.

He stressed that the inability of democratic parties to criticize the continuous escalation of the Ukrainian war, and to develop political solutions to it, at a time when the Alternative Party is vocal in its opposition to this war and the need to reach a political solution to it, is the third reason for the rise in the popularity of the right-wing party.

This comes at a time when a German majority supports intensifying diplomatic efforts in order to prevent further escalation in Ukraine.

The spokesman stressed that the superiority shown by the opinion polls of this party will continue, unless the democratic parties can provide satisfactory solutions to the three reasons mentioned.

According to the latest poll conducted by the specialized institute (Infratest Dimap), 34% of citizens in Germany are "completely dissatisfied" with the performance of the tripartite government of Olaf Scholz, while 45% said they are "less satisfied" with this government, and only 19% expressed satisfaction with the current German government's policy.

Germany's AfD makes a surge in popularity by exploiting migrant crisis (Getty Images)

Fear and hate as an electoral strategy

Because the Social Democrats (SPD) are the most affected by the right-wing populist party's strong return to politics, according to its Bundestag deputy Annika Klose, it is seeking to develop a strategy to ensure its exit from its crisis.

Klose said, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that this strategy is based above all on "the attempt of the parties of the government coalition to develop a unified policy on issues that are at the forefront of the concerns of the German citizen."

Asked whether the MP agreed with the view that the AfD succeeded because others do not have a clear strategy, Klose said that this is not true, stressing that right-wing populists achieve successes "only when they can spread fear and hatred by exploiting crises and turning them into electoral material."

She added that this is precisely what is happening at the moment, pointing to the state of confusion that Germany suffers from due to what she described as "Russian aggression" against Ukraine and its consequences, especially the energy crisis, high prices and inflation.

The beating heart of the Alternative Party

Observers agree that the AfD experienced two mutations, the first during the so-called refugee crisis in the fall of 2015, when former German Prime Minister Angela Merkel decided to open the borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees, and the second began to show signs with the outbreak of the current crises, which consider the problem of asylum as one of its consequences.

The party continues to prioritize asylum, while German municipalities and cities are reaching their maximum capacity to absorb large numbers of new refugees, and European governments are unable to agree on a unified European migration policy.

Christian Hersch, a dissident AfD functionalist who wrote the book "The Seizure of Power" under a pseudonym, knows better than anyone the party's strategy based mainly on exploiting the German government's failure to find a solution to the waves of refugees in Europe.

Hersh says in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, that (alternative) or as he calls it "the party of the angry, grasps the indignation of the people and employs it to enhance its social status," adding that one of the reasons for the party's successes is the "failed immigration and integration policy" of the German government and the European Union.

Since 2015, the party has been riding the wave of refugees, which over time has become the core of its identity, he said.

Asked how dangerous this party is for immigrants if it seizes power, Hersh said that this party "poses a danger to all those who do not share its opinion, whether it is about immigrants or others," stressing that many officials in the party do not speak out about their hostility to foreigners except behind closed doors, but the Alternative Party, whether it speaks out or not, remains an anti-immigration and anti-asylum party.

In this fraught atmosphere and the widening gap "between us at the bottom" and "between them at the top", as it is considered used to describe AfD voters "angry" with political elites, Germany is preparing this year for local elections in the influential state of Bavaria, the results of which could be a severe blow to democratic parties.

The party is participating in the parliaments of 14 of the 16 federal states and is preparing for parliamentary elections in 2025.