Highlights: Russia has long been by far the largest supplier of arms to the African continent. Over the period 2017-2021, 44% of imports came from Russia, compared to 17% from the United States, 10% from China and 6% from France. Despite the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russian suppliers remain very well established in Africa. Russian dominance in the African arms market is eroding, it is not falling despite Moscow's need to massively supply the Ukrainian front, and despite sanctions aimed at crippling the arms sector.

Russia has long been by far the largest supplier of arms to the African continent. Over the period 2017-2021, 44% of imports came from Russia, compared to 17% from the United States, 10% from...

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"Vladimir Putin wrote off sovereign debts to encourage African countries to buy Russian weapons"

Russia has long been by far the largest supplier of arms to the African continent. Over the period 2017-2021, 44% of imports came from Russia, compared to 17% from the United States, 10% from China and 6% from France. In a study, the Belgian centre Groupe de recherche et d'information sur la paix et la sécurité (Grip) examined the evolution of these trade links. And notes that despite the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russian suppliers remain very well established.

A woman examines a Kalashnikov sniper rifle during the Russia-Africa Economic Forum exhibition on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on October 24, 2019 (Illustration image). © SERGEI CHIRIKOV / AFP

Text by: François Mazet Follow

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Interview with Agatha Verdebout, researcher at GRIP and author of the study "Russian arms sales in Africa: the thwarted effects of Western sanctions".

RFI: How to explain the place taken by Russia in the sale of arms in Africa?

Agatha Verdebout: There has again been an opening to the outside world with the arrival of Vladimir Putin and this desire finally to restore Russia to its place as a world power. And that included Vladimir Putin's revival of arms exports. And the African market is a market that was quite open because it is a market that is not very investigated or used by Europeans. Also because Europeans are bound by stricter rules a priori than Russia in terms of respect for human rights in the countries where they sell arms, etc. Russia is a little less constrained from this point of view.

You talk about arms sales as a pivotal part of Moscow's strategy.

Yes, and one of the tactics used by Russia when it started to project itself again on the African arms market was to offer other benefits in exchange; That is, there were not just arms sales. There has been the revival of economic and cultural cooperation. There has been a lot of debt write-off. As a result, Vladimir Putin has written off sovereign debts dating back to Soviet times to favor or encourage the countries of the African continent to buy Russian rather than American or French, for example.

Nevertheless, your conclusion is that Western sanctions have had only a limited effect on Russian exports. How can we explain it?

First, it must be understood that the purpose of sanctions, a priori, is not to impact exports. The fact that this impacts arms exports is a kind of collateral effect. The purpose of sanctions is to impact the production of weapons in Russia to prevent these weapons from being sent to the front.

Russia has still managed to maintain some supply for its defense industry in the components it needs for that industry.

So he has a great ability to adapt?

On the one hand, there is a great capacity to adapt to sanctions, and on the one hand, what should not be underestimated is the ability of the Russian arms industry to lower the technological needs of these weapons. That is, they have the ability to modify the weapons they have to be able to do without highly technological or highly complex components.

>> READ ALSO: Washington suspects Wagner of using Mali to arm himself in Ukraine

Despite the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russian suppliers remain very well established in Africa

If Russian dominance in the African arms market is eroding, it is not falling despite Moscow's need to massively supply the Ukrainian front, and despite sanctions aimed at crippling the arms sector. For the author of the Grip study, this maintenance can be explained for two reasons: the ability of Russian industry to adapt to sanctions, in particular by finding new technology suppliers, and the importance that the Kremlin attaches to its African partners, for diplomatic and communication reasons. This sector is an industrial showcase and a "pivotal" element of Russian strategy.

Vladimir Putin wanted to revitalize the networks inherited from the USSR, and alongside "historical" customers, such as Algeria or Egypt, contracts were signed with states such as Nigeria, while Russia gained a significant foothold in the Central African Republic or Mali. Moscow is multiplying "seduction operations" towards the continent's leaders. This is evidenced by the repeated visits of the head of Russian diplomacy Sergey Lavrov, the last to Kenya, Burundi, Mozambique and South Africa. The next Russia-Africa summit, at the end of July in St. Petersburg, will see the signing of many partnership contracts, including in the defence sector.

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"Vladimir Putin wrote off sovereign debts to encourage African countries to buy Russian weapons"

"Vladimir Putin wrote off sovereign debts to encourage African countries to buy Russian weapons"

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