KHARTOUM – Despite the collapse of 11 previous truces between Sudan's military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the United States and Saudi Arabia have called for a new ceasefire agreement and its effective implementation to build a lasting cessation of military operations that have been ongoing since mid-April.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that both the Kingdom and the United States, sponsors of the negotiations between the two sides, are keen to continue talks between representatives of the two military forces, which previously focused on the need to facilitate humanitarian access, and to reach an agreement on the steps that the two parties should take before resuming talks.
It also noted that the army and RSF delegations are in Jeddah, despite the suspension of Jeddah talks since early June, due to repeated "grave violations" of the ceasefire by both sides.
Al Jazeera Net is trying to answer questions about the new that the possible truce agreement can hold, and what the parties to the conflict expect from the agreement and does it hold?
What is the fate of previous truces since the start of armed clashes?
Since the outbreak of bloody fighting, the country has seen 11 truces, all of which have been violated, amid rising death tolls and deteriorating humanitarian conditions.
Observers believe that the parties to the conflict believed that the battle would be resolved within days, and after the war continues, each side seeks to improve its position on the ground to change the equation, and thus impose its conditions in any negotiations.
Army commanders believe that the military establishment has been able to break the back of hard power in the RSF, and that any interruption of the military operation allows the other side to catch its breath and regroup, while the RSF works to embarrass the army by dragging it into confrontation and prolonging the war, and embarrassing it internationally.
Why did the U.S. and Saudi mediators suspend the Jeddah negotiations?
African sources monitoring the Jeddah negotiations say that Riyadh and Washington were angered by the suspension of the government delegation's participation in the negotiations, in protest against the failure of the rapid support to comply with the terms of the truce, especially not leaving hospitals, citizens' homes, water and electricity facilities, and continuing to attack military sites.
This was considered by the mediators as a disregard and disrespect for their efforts, and an attempt to drag them to stand with the demands of one party against the other, and Washington strengthened its position by imposing economic sanctions on 4 companies linked to the army and rapid support.
What is new that prompted the mediators to call for the resumption of negotiations and a new ceasefire?
African sources who spoke to Al Jazeera Net saw that the suspension of mediators for negotiations was an attempt to pressure the army and rapid support, and that the US sanctions did not come simultaneously with the suspension by chance, but was intentional, as well as not naming officials from the parties covered by the restriction of granting them visas, so that there are gradual pressure steps.
It is likely that the two negotiating delegations will not leave Jeddah at the request of Saudi Arabia, because it is normal for the two delegations to leave after the negotiations are suspended indefinitely.
African sources believe that what accelerated the revival of the Jeddah negotiations is the African Union's move to coordinate efforts to stop the war, and its quest to develop a new initiative, in addition to communication between the Qatari and Egyptian leaderships to coordinate on the Sudanese crisis.
Does the army want a new truce and what are its demands?
A military adviser close to the cell managing the crisis regretted that the mediators ignored two files they submitted before the negotiations were suspended, and said that if they were discussed in a serious way, they would have put the other side to the test, the first file includes 90 documented violations of the truce committed by the Rapid Support Forces, and the other includes a mechanism to implement the requirements of the truce.
The military adviser says in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, they are serious about the truce and so they kept their delegation in Jeddah, but they will not accept to put them in one hand with the Rapid Support rebels, who could not control their forces, which did not hear of the truce, after the disappearance of the Rapid Support Commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo "Hemedti", and his deputy Abdul Rahim Dagalo, more than 3 weeks ago.
He added that compliance with the truce depends on the other side's respect for it, and the army will not stand idly by in the face of their violations and encroachment on civilian and military sites, nor will they be allowed to exploit them as an opportunity to expand and achieve gains on the ground.
Will RSF leaders abide by the new truce?
An official in the media of the Rapid Support Forces, sees that the problem is in the lack of commitment of the army and not in their forces, and says to the island that the army has been since the beginning of the previous truces bombing their positions, and they were defending themselves and allowed the work of maintenance teams electricity and water facilities, and protect them and pass humanitarian aid to those affected.
He explained that they asked for ceasefire monitors on the ground to monitor violations, instead of monitoring via satellites and technical devices, but the army was not enthusiastic about this, indicating "its lack of seriousness in respecting the truce and its unwillingness to abide by it, due to the presence of more than one decision center within its command."
What is the new ceasefire agreement and what are the guarantees of its durability?
Military expert Moussa Abdel Hadi says that the new agreement will follow the previous truces that did not lead to the cessation of military confrontations, because the army believes that it is close to resolving the battle in its favor and will sign any agreement to avoid international pressure, but it will continue to conduct qualitative operations through special forces and special task forces to force the Rapid Support Forces to retreat and collapse, but without provoking mediators, and while minimizing civilian casualties.
Abdul Hadi explains in a statement to Al Jazeera Net that the Rapid Support Forces were exhausted by the war, and could not compensate for what they lost, after the army was able to cut off the combat supply of weapons and fighters from them, especially with the length of the supply lines that have been hit, but some methods are used to prolong the war to ensure its continuation within the political equation in any negotiating platform, so it will not stop fighting.
Can mediators impose the requirements for a real truce?
Academic and political analyst Hashem Abdullah believes that the mediators' statement on a new ceasefire indicates that they have sensed a new spirit of the army and rapid support, and that there is greater interest from the international community in the Sudanese crisis, and keenness to stop the war due to its humanitarian and security effects on the Sudanese people and the countries of the region.
Abdullah pointed out – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the expected agreement for the new truce, is expected to have effective mechanisms to monitor it and oblige the parties to it, expecting not to lead to a complete ceasefire due to the nature of the Rapid Support Forces, which depend on rapid movement, maneuvering and circumvention, but it will be better than the previous truces because of the stick raised in the face of the parties.