Crisis in Sudan: towards escalation?

The ceasefire agreement, which began on 22 May and ended on the night of 3 to 4 June, had reduced the intensity of fighting and limited access to humanitarian aid, even though it had been violated several times like its predecessors. Everything indicates that the conflict is heading for an aggravation.

Khartoum, 30 May 2023. General Al-Burhane visits his troops. AP

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Residents of Khartoum have reported since Sunday morning a sharp escalation of clashes in several neighborhoods of the capital. It is the centre and south of Khartoum, as well as the city of Bahri north of Khartoum, that are the most affected by this upsurge in fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces of General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo known as "Hemedti".

A resident of the city, Sara Hassan, told Reuters that they now live "a real hell", "in the south of Khartoum, we live in terror of heavy shelling, the noise of anti-aircraft guns and power cuts".

Airstrikes targeting RSF positions in eastern Khartoum, for example, reportedly resulted in civilian casualties. Other witnesses also reported that a military plane crashed in Omdurman, one of the three cities that constitute, along with Khartoum and Bahri, the greater region of the capital. The paramilitaries claim to have shot him while the army speaks of a "technical failure".

The escalation of clashes comes as the United States and Saudi Arabia seek again to restart talks between the two sides for a new ceasefire, this time "effective," despite General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's decision to withdraw from peace talks on Wednesday. But it won't be easy.

Loyalist forces

The fighting has already left more than 1,800 dead and one and a half million refugees and internally displaced persons. And they could gain intensity, according to Kholood Khair, director of Confluence Advisory. "The fear is very strong that there will be an escalation and that it will not remain a clash between two military factions in a civilian setting, but that it will turn into a civil war," she observes. There are warning signs of this in Khartoum, with retired officers returning to duty and civilians being asked to take up arms and join the fighting. This is already happening in Darfur: the governor has advised civilians to arm themselves, which has largely been followed up because Darfur suffers from great insecurity.

For the researcher, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's troops are reorganizing: "As we speak, they are preparing an offensive on the capital, which is currently estimated to be 90% controlled by paramilitary forces. The Sudanese armed forces want to achieve military gains on the ground in Khartoum before resuming any negotiations.

■ Testimonial

Hundreds of Sudanese flee every day to neighbouring Chad, South Sudan, and the majority of them to Egypt. This is the case of Omar Salman, a 31-year-old Sudanese doctor who left Khartoum. The Royal Care Hospital where he worked closed, like most hospitals in the capital, bombed or occupied by the belligerents. In the midst of the fighting, and without a supply of food, it had become impossible for him to survive anyway. He recounts his three weeks of exodus before reaching Cairo:

"I left Khartoum alone, with a backpack and some of the money my family had transferred to me. Because you have to take several buses to reach the city of Wadi Halfa on the Egyptian border, it is very expensive. On the roads, the RSF are very aggressive: they searched me entirely. Sometimes they can hit you, insult you. When I arrived in Wadi Halfa, I waited seven days to get my visa. Many prisoners have escaped to Sudan, so the Egyptian authorities want to make sure they don't let dangerous people into their territory. The delays are long. There are many elderly people, sometimes sick. I saw five die before I could cross the border. Here in Cairo, there are so many Sudanese that rents cost ten times more than usual. I was lucky enough to find a small apartment, which does the trick. »

Omar Salman

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Read on on the same topics:

• Sudan
• Abdel Fattah al-Burhan