- What timetable?
"The question is not +if+ but +when+ the government will move," says a leader of the majority.
Emmanuel Macron has given Elisabeth Borne 100 days to revive the government machine shaken by the pension crisis, with July 14 as an ultimatum.
He could therefore, around this date of military review, also see his troops in government.
Unless the reshuffle comes sooner, according to other sources. As after June 8, the day of examination of the proposal to repeal the pension reform which could be followed by a motion of censure.
But if the president lets the summer pass, the deadline for senatorial elections will come on September 24. "If Emmanuel Macron wants to go to the right, not sure he can do it before," notes an LR deputy.
- Which host at Matignon?
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne on the steps of the Hotel Matignon on June 2, 2023 in Paris © bERTRAND GUAY / AFP
Can Elisabeth Borne remain head of government? The question had already arisen after his appeal to 49.3 on pensions and a motion of censure rejected by only 9 votes.
There are two opposing camps within the majority.
Some want it to continue, sceptical or even opposed to a coalition with the right. "There is no martingale, no prime minister who guarantees the LR votes without losing any in the majority," says a Renaissance MP.
"We did not campaign for (Valérie) Pécresse's program," added a minister.
Elisabeth "Borne remains a very solid person, very loyal, and I do not see who else," notes a parliamentarian who has the ear of Emmanuel Macron.
A second camp would like to change the Prime Minister to promote a more right-wing policy. "We have no choice, we must go and make a government agreement with the LR," pleads a Renaissance parliamentarian.
Several names are circulating for Matignon: on the right side, those of the numbers two (Bruno Le Maire) and three (Gérald Darmanin) of the government, or Sébastien Lecornu (Defense). But "the idea of a return to a kind of UMP government is unbearable for (François) Bayrou", the president's MoDem ally, said a minister.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire (C) visits the ACC factory on May 30, 2023 in Billy-Berclau, northern France © PASCAL ROSSIGNOL / POOL / AFP
In historical macronia, the names of the former president of the Assembly, Richard Ferrand, or the former Minister of Agriculture, Julien Denormandie, recur.
- Which ministers?
Apart from the head of government, many plead to replace ministers deemed "invisible", like the club of the same name founded by François Braun (Health), with his colleagues from Education Pap Ndiaye and Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu, tired of being considered transparent.
The government is "too tech. Apart from a few who do politics, no one knows the ministers, not even the parliamentarians," said a Renaissance elected official.
Health Minister François Braun on May 30, 2023 at the National Assembly in Paris © Alain JOCARD / AFP
"Too many public policies are failing because those who carry them are inaudible," according to another.
But "every day that brings us closer to the end of the five-year term will be less about new reforms, and more and more about valuing what we have done. The cast must adapt to this, "pleads a Renaissance deputy.
A reshuffle "does not offer a gain in popularity for the president of the Republic, but it allows to reaffirm a clear course with people who do the job," says a Macronist deputy.
With the 100 days, "we have at least taken control of the agenda," she adds. And on July 14 "there will be the demonstration that parliamentary action is not sclerotic".
It remains to be seen whether this reshuffle will allow the government, deprived of an absolute majority in the Assembly, to adopt more texts, starting with the one on immigration.
For the moment, "there is a kind of general atmosphere where we know that there will be a reshuffle, we are too waiting, weightless. So we do not move forward, "summarizes a parliamentarian of the majority.
In the end "there is only one who knows", Emmanuel Macron, recalls a minister.
President Emmanuel Macron visits the civil security air base, on June 2, 2023 in Garons, Gard © Daniel Cole / POOL / AFP
- And at the Élysée?
If a "distance" has settled between Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister, some dysfunctions have also emerged between the head of state and his "double", the all-powerful secretary general of the Elysée Alexis Kohler, indicted also for his links with the shipowner MSC.
But will the president be "at some point able to tell Alexis + you are leaving+? Not sure," said a Renaissance MP.
"Kohler is convinced that there is a program," the one presented by Mr. Macron for his re-election. But "it's very fragmented, it's not a vision of society," criticizes an adviser to the executive.
© 2023 AFP