Romain Rouillard / Photo credit: KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP 17:48 pm, June 01, 2023

After a new drone attack on Moscow on Tuesday, the question arises of the reprisals that could be envisaged by Russia, already targeted by armed rebel groups in the Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border. But Moscow's room for maneuver seems quite thin.

Is Russia still a country at peace? For several days, the question seems legitimate. On Tuesday, Moscow suffered a major attack, carried out by a dozen drones, which however did not cause much damage or casualties. An offensive that is in addition, however, to the Ukrainian bombings perpetrated in the border region of Belgorod. Its governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, even reported one dead and two wounded. This region was also targeted, a few weeks ago, by two armed groups, composed of Russian soldiers fiercely opposed to Vladimir Putin.

Clearly, this war, which until now did not go beyond the Ukrainian borders, is now exported to Russian territory. A scenario that Vladimir Putin has long presented as a red line that would arouse strong reactions if it were to be crossed.

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But these red lines have continued to recede throughout the conflict, experts say. "In 14 months of conflict, many of these so-called red lines have already been crossed without the use of tactical weapons," Anne de Tinguy, professor emeritus at Inalco (National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations) and a specialist on Russia, said last April. Are these recent drone attacks likely to change the situation? "For me, this is the game of war and it does not imply retaliatory measures," said Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS and specialist in Russian issues.

"It's hard to understand what Russia's strategy is today"

For the former diplomat, a large-scale response from Moscow is, to date, quite hypothetical. "In fact, they have very little additional room for manoeuvre. The only way, in reality, would be to increase the bombing of civilian populations in Ukraine. But I can't imagine it because they will want to keep their missiles for war purposes." And even if the Russians opt for this solution, they will have to face the powerful Ukrainian air defense system, reinforced by American equipment.

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For the moment, Moscow seems to be confined to a simple "verbal one-upmanship", notes General Jerome Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the review National Defense. Vladimir Putin simply accused Kiev of wanting to "terrify Russia" and "intimidate Russian citizens". While denouncing the attitude of the West, responsible, according to him, for these attacks because of the support given to Ukraine. A reaction less aggressive than imagined, which can be explained by the absence of clear and readable tactics at the highest level of the Russian state. "Putin said recently that Russia will do something but that it still has to think," said Jean de Gliniasty. And Jerome Pellistrandi adds: "In theory, they are able to hit the presidential palace in Kiev and yet they do not. So it's hard to understand what Russia's strategy is today."

"We are never safe from a tipping point"

On the other hand, Moscow has always been quite clear about its desire to minimize the difficulties encountered on the battlefield. And, a fortiori, on its own territory. The aim is to convince the population that this "special military operation" in Ukraine does not jeopardise the security of Russian citizens. And that it is only an epiphenomenon. It is therefore difficult to justify a large-scale reaction on the military field. It is difficult, however, to bury this hypothesis definitively. "You are never safe from a tipping point. Something that could move the Russian population. A hostage-taking, civilians killed etc," says Anna Colin-Lebedev, a political scientist specializing in post-Soviet societies.

The nature of the targets in Russia should also be closely monitored. "Are these military targets or undifferentiated targets with the risk of civilian casualties?" asked General Pellistrandi. Another important parameter is the origin of the weapons used. "For the moment, a priori, the strikes are not perpetrated using Western equipment," confirms the soldier. But how would Moscow react if a British or American missile ended up on an apartment building? To date, it is difficult to provide a firm and definitive answer.