Erdogan's third term. Hot files on the Turkish president's table

ANKARA - Relations with NATO, the Russian-Ukrainian war and political tensions in the world are several files on the table of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his new term, which lasts until 2028, after his victory in the run-off last Sunday over his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

The Turkish elections drew the attention of the world, especially with the different political and ideological orientations of both Erdogan and his rival Kılıçdaar, and the direct impact of the election results on Turkey's orientation in its domestic and foreign policies, given its geographical location, its mediation of a dynamic region between East and West and its position in international tensions.

According to Muhammad Ali Mart, associate professor at Tayyip Erdogan University, there are serious decision-making processes at the foreign policy level waiting for Erdogan with the beginning of his new term, explaining that the global situation is witnessing the processes of disintegration and the formation of new alliances, which is reflected on Turkey and the importance of the position it will take in some files.

He likely, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that Turkey under the leadership of Erdogan will try to distance itself from polarization on the international scene, while "if Kılıçdaroğlu won, it was expected that Turkey would be closer to the West," noting that the first decisions that Turkey will have to take is to approve Sweden's accession to NATO.

Marginalization of Turkey

The Turkish academic adds that this decision will be an indicator of Turkey's position in light of international developments, as Sweden's accession is important for NATO to pressure the Russian threat, pointing out that Turkey is required to agree to the annexation of Sweden, but because of the current situation, major countries in NATO are trying to marginalize Turkey internationally.

Mert said these countries are trying to encircle Turkey from the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean via Greece, and from Syria and Iraq by supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara classifies as a terrorist group.

The Turkish academic ruled out his country's accession to the European Union, as is clear from the position of countries such as Germany, in addition to the lack of agreement with England and France.

Sakarya University academic Ismail Numan Talgi said the results of the Turkish elections will lead to the stability of foreign policy, which will be in a stronger position to overcome problematic periods in relations with Western countries and allies such as the United States and NATO.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Talji said that when Turkey is able to consolidate its stability in domestic and foreign policy and enhance its economic resources and the economic situation in general, this will result in a new chapter in which Turkey's relations with Western countries will be stronger.

The academic attributed his opinion to the fact that the experience of crisis management for both Erdogan and the AKP governments emphasizes stability with regard to Turkish foreign policy, and therefore unexpected and uncalculated developments can be successfully managed.

In turn, a researcher at the Orsam Institute for Studies Canan Devcioglu, said that one of the most important Turkish breakthroughs in its foreign policy during the era of Erdogan is the development of ties with NATO, although it is the largest military force within the alliance.

Defense Industries

The researcher pointed out that Turkey's progress in the field of defense industries significantly reduced the import of security equipment from the United States, and increased its participation with various actors while giving importance to domestic production.

Dafcioglu stressed that it would be in the interest of the United States to get closer to Turkey in the coming period, pointing at the same time to Erdogan's "Asia again" policy, thanks to which diplomatic and economic relations with Turkish countries in Central Asia, as well as with Russia and China, developed.

According to the researcher, the deepening of relations led to close ties with Russia and Azerbaijan, which was manifested in Azerbaijan's support during its war with Armenia to annex the Nagorno-Karabakh region on the one hand, and the Syrian crisis and economic and security relations with Russia on the other, expecting the continuation of these ties in relations between Turkey and Russia in the coming period given that the interests between the two countries are largely compatible.

In turn, Talgi stated that Turkey acted as an important bridge for both Russia and Western countries in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and this was demonstrated through the Grain Corridor Agreement and other diplomatic summits, noting that Turkey continues to pursue a balanced policy between Russia and the United States, which will make it able to strengthen its position as a geopolitical, diplomatic and economic center.

In turn, Muhammad Ali Murt stressed that as a result of the nature of the current relations with the West, there will be a need to reach a partnership with Russia in some files, especially in the file of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the outstanding files in Syria and northern Iraq, and this comes in light of the existence of conflicting positions from the West with Russia, especially with regard to Ukraine.

Mert said that rapprochement with Russia would negatively affect Turkey's relationship with the West, while relations with Iran are likely to be more difficult in the coming period, and bilateral relations will be re-discussed and exit points will be searched for in order to overcome differences.

The academic said Iran's position on Turkey would be supported by China, which takes it to its side in matters related to the Middle East.

Two decades of rapprochement

Regarding the framework of Turkish-Arab relations, Talgi believes that intensive political, economic and military relations will be established from this year with the countries of the Middle East and Islamic geography, pointing to the strengthening of these relations during the rule of the Justice and Development Party.

The academic pointed out that the succession of congratulations from Middle Eastern countries and Islamic geography to Erdogan after winning the presidency indicates the belief of these countries in bilateral relations with Turkey and regional stability.

Devcioglu added that Turkey's foreign policy has faced challenges due to important regional developments, the latest of which are the crises in Syria and Libya, pointing out that the Syrian crisis and refugee issues, which have also been reflected in domestic politics, will also be at the top of the foreign policy agenda.

The researcher at the Orsam Institute for Studies explained that it can be said that the Erdogan administration will pursue a policy that guarantees the safe and dignified return of Syrians to their homeland in the coming period.

Relationship with Africa

According to the spokesman, Turkey, under Erdogan, has developed its relations with Africa through its pioneering and humanitarian vision of foreign policy, adding that the role played by Ankara in Somalia and Libya has been appreciated by the international community.

Dafcioglu stressed that Turkey will continue its diplomatic efforts with Libyan and international parties in order to hold democratic elections in Libya and establish a fair and sustainable administration.

In turn, Mert said that Turkey's relationship with Middle Eastern countries is not independent of its relationship with Western countries, pointing to the cooperation of Greece, which wants to reduce Turkey's influence in the eastern Mediterranean, with the countries of the region, especially Egypt and Israel.