Moscow in Kiev's crosshairs? The Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukraine on Tuesday (May 30th) of carrying out a "terrorist attack" against the Russian capital using drones, while claiming that its air defense system had worked perfectly.
Five drones were intercepted, while three others were deactivated in mid-flight thanks to electronic jamming measures, Russian authorities said. However, several local Russian media "reported that there were rather between twenty and thirty drones aimed at Moscow," said Huseyn Aliyev, a specialist in the conflict in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.
Long-range drones
It is therefore difficult to have a precise idea of the scale of the attack. Numerous images and videos that circulated on social networks throughout the morning show clouds of smoke rising in the Moscow region, and several buildings partially damaged by these drones.
A list of five sites where drones have been shot down in and around the Russian capital has been posted online by Russian MP Alexander Khinshtein. "They seem to have headed southwestern Moscow, where the most exclusive districts of the capital are located," said Gustav Gressel, a Russian military expert at the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations.
Kiev welcomed the attack but paid lip service to any involvement. "We are of course happy to observe them and we expect an increase in the number of attacks. But, of course, we have nothing directly to do with it," said Mykhailo Podoliak, one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's closest advisers.
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Nevertheless, "the photos and videos available show devices that look very much like surveillance drones made in Ukraine," says Huseyn Aliyev. "Everything indicates that these are UKRJET UJ-22, Ukrainian civilian surveillance drones that can be equipped with small explosive charges," said Danilo delle Fave, a military strategy specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.
The advantage of these machines? These are long-range drones. "They can fly 800 km, or even 1,000 km by modifying them," notes Danilo delle Fave. They were therefore able to be launched from the other side of the Ukrainian-Russian border, which is precisely a thousand kilometers from the Russian capital.
An eye for an eye, capital for a capital?
The attack appears to be part of a broader campaign of Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. There was the raid of the "Freedom of Russia" legion in the Russian region of Belgorod, north of Kharkiv, another incursion near Bryansk, not far from Belarus, or the sending of naval drones to damage the Russian fleet stationed around Crimea.
A general effort that would aim "to force Moscow to mobilize troops to defend Russian territory, while they could be useful further south of Ukraine and in the Donbass, where the Ukrainian counter-offensive would be being prepared," said Huseyn Aliyev.
But this time, it's still about Moscow. This is certainly not the first time that the Russian capital has been targeted by a drone. In early May, Russia acknowledged thwarting an attack from the air over the Kremlin. The Russian authorities had even maintained that it was an assassination attempt against Vladimir Putin.
Tuesday morning's attack, however, was far more significant. "It's an escalation because it's no longer just one drone like at the beginning of May, but several, which are also more sophisticated and equipped with larger explosive charges," Aliyev said.
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The size of the attack and the target chosen suggest to the experts interviewed by France 24 that this is not just another incursion to thwart Moscow's plans to organize its troops for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
"If the Ukrainians had wanted to demonstrate the flaws of Russian air defenses, they would not have chosen to target Moscow, which remains the best protected city in the country," Gressel said. "Hitting targets such as ammunition depots or airports on Russian soil would probably have pushed the Russian military more to strengthen its defenses on the national territory," the military expert said.
"It is rather a response by Ukraine to the bombings that have targeted Kiev in recent days," said Danilo delle Fave. An eye for an eye, capital for a capital, so to speak. Certainly, the intensity of the drone attack has nothing to do with the violence of the Russian missile bombing of Kiev. But it is the clearest message yet "to tell the Russians that their capital is within range of Ukrainian weapons," Aliyev said.
Scaring the rich
And not just any Russians! Images of clouds of smoke in upscale neighborhoods suggest that Kiev is capable of "targeting the resorts of the Moscow elite, where even Vladimir Putin is supposed to have a residence," Gressel said.
It's probably also a trial run. "Throughout the winter, Ukraine's military industries have been running at full speed to build thousands of drones. It is time to use them and Tuesday morning's attack shows that Moscow could be one of the main targets," Aliyev said.
In this context, Kiev could have assumed its attack more openly. Admittedly, it must spare the sensitivities of its allies in the West. "The Ukrainians can hardly officially recognize that they are operating on Russian soil because Western logistical support is conditional on Kiev only having to defend itself," said Danilo delle Fave.
But Ukraine also has another reason to remain vague. "It's a way to feed the paranoia of the Russian General Staff," the specialist said. The Kremlin can never rule out the possibility of an enemy from within working in concert with Kiev to destabilize Russian power. Enough to give Moscow the impression that its army must fight on several fronts, against several enemies.
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