After Erdogan won a third term. Turkey's foreign policy orientations and the map of alliances

In an indication of the influence that Turkey has become in international and regional politics, the presidential elections - which ended with the victory of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - witnessed great international attention, and foreign policy was an important factor in voter attitudes, given its link to the most influential factor in the elections, which is the economy.

In its electoral campaign, the opposition attacked Erdogan's foreign policy, and vowed to make radical changes in this policy, including positive relations with the West and military withdrawals from some countries.

With this report, we explore the directions of President Erdogan in the next stage, and whether there will be changes in his foreign policy and to what direction? How will it map Turkey's next alliances, especially the Middle East?

Intertwined foreign policy

In recent years, Turkey's foreign policy has strengthened its regional presence in the region depending on the military factor, as it enjoys a military presence in Syria, Libya, and Iraq. It also provides military services and advice in many African countries, in addition to Azerbaijan, where Ankara contributed to supporting the latter in its war with Armenia and the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The last decade in the Arab region has also strained Turkey's relations with key countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Israel, but the past two years have seen Erdogan begin to restore relations with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, as well as opening channels of dialogue and breaking the ice with both Cairo and Damascus. This was seen as a new Turkish reading of the region after the Arab Spring years.

Internationally, the Russian-Ukrainian war has contributed to strengthening Turkey's position among international parties, both in Moscow and Western countries supporting Kiev.

Ankara had adopted a special policy towards the Russian and Ukrainian war, through which it was able to maintain its relationship with Moscow, which provoked the anger of the West, which hoped that Turkey would take a more inclined position towards NATO's anti-Russian orientations, which further complicated the relationship with the United States, which is witnessing tension with the Erdogan government, which accuses the Biden administration of supporting Kurdish militias hostile to Turkey in northern Syria.

A new approach

Turkey's foreign policy has recently relied on a new approach to the international and regional environment, which includes a number of factors and goals that still exist.

Turkey's new approach to improving relations with the Arab Gulf states was based on introducing the economic factor in foreign policy, seeking to ease external pressure on Turkey and restore Arab markets.

Ankara also aims in its new approach to contain the development of relations between Eastern Mediterranean countries with its traditional rival Greece, as Ankara's rapprochement with Tel Aviv and Cairo aims to strengthen the Turkish position against Athens, and Turkey hopes to impose itself as a corridor for natural gas exports, because of its economic and geopolitical impact.

360° Policy

At the international level, according to Erdogan's vision, tension in the international system – especially in light of the Russian-Ukrainian war – gives Turkey more space for a more independent policy line, in which Ankara represents a center of gravity between competing international parties.

Commenting on his country's policy on the war in Ukraine, Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's top security adviser, said Turkey was "trying to conduct a 360-degree foreign policy," adding, "We don't want to favor any particular issue, actor, region or country over another."

In this context, Turkey refused to take sides in the war in Ukraine, unlike the rest of the NATO members, and Erdogan said, "We don't need to ask permission from anyone." This policy has allowed Turkey to play the role of mediator in many files related to the Ukraine war, such as the grain export agreement, and negotiating a prisoner exchange.

According to the above approach, with President Erdoğan winning a new term, it is unlikely to lead to a radical change in Turkey's foreign policy.

Erdogan stressed – in remarks ahead of the second round – that he intends to maintain the same policy in relations with Russia and other countries as before, adding, "I will not challenge Russia as the CHP did, and we have been in contact with it, the United States, China and the West, and I will continue this approach from now on."

In contrast, Turkey's relations with the West are likely to strain further if stronger trade and economic ties with Moscow are developed.

Stress relief

The path of improving relations with the countries of the region will maintain its momentum, and the next phase may witness a breakthrough in Turkey's relations with a new group of countries in the region.

Given Erdogan's depletion of the Syrian file, this president actually began months ago the process of normalization with Damascus, setting his goals for the "voluntary" return of refugees, the fight against "terrorism" and the implementation of a political transition.

For this purpose, intelligence meetings were held at the level of defense and foreign ministers, involving Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime, and Erdogan's victory may contribute to advancing the path of normalization with Damascus.

The same may apply to the relationship with Egypt, which will deal with the fact that President Erdogan will remain in power for the next 5 years.

The results of Turkey's elections, whether at the parliamentary or presidential level, help ease domestic policy pressures on Erdogan's foreign policy, giving him more room to maneuver in relations with countries in the region and even with Europe and the United States.

What Turkey had partially lost in the months leading up to the election, this was evident, for example, in its negotiations with NATO for Sweden and Finland to become successors.

The same applies to normalization talks with Syria, which have been greatly affected by the internal pressure provoked by the Turkish opposition regarding the presence of Syrian refugees in the country.

National interest

It is not difficult to predict Turkey's continued efforts to pursue a balanced policy with Russia and China, by prioritizing its national interests vis-à-vis the West, and by maintaining a special policy that has allowed it to play roles more independent of the Western approach.

The election results will also help attract foreign investors, as they signal domestic political stability for the next five years.

Given Turkey's geopolitical position and the many regional issues involved, Turkey will maintain an important place in the international politics of various parties.

The bottom line is that Erdogan, with a comfortable victory, will continue his current approach to foreign policy in a calmer domestic environment, and an external environment that could withstand major shifts at any time.