This is the story of a Istanbulite from the working-class district of Kasimpasa, who was considering a career in football. It is finally towards politics that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is oriented, until appearing, at 69 years old, as unstoppable at the head of Turkey.

" READ ALSO – "I could die for Erdogan": in Kasimpasa, no one has forgotten the reis

After two decades at the head of Turkey – eleven years as Prime Minister and nine years as President of the Republic – Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed weakened by the economic crisis and the wear and tear of power. This did not prevent him from coming out ahead in the first round of his third presidential election, contrary to predictions, on 14th May last.

Unlike in 2014 and 2018, Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not win the battle in the first round, but was not far from it: the outgoing head of state won 49.5% of the vote, while his main opponent, Social Democrat Kemal Kilicdaroglu, won 45% of the vote.

The "réis" however approaches the second round, scheduled for Sunday, May 28, in a position of strength. Especially since the third candidate for the presidential election, the ultranationalist Sinan Ogan, officially supported the outgoing president on Monday, May 22. Sinan Ogan had gathered some 2.8 million votes on his name.

" READ ALSO – Sinan Ogan, a "kingmaker" that Erdogan does not need

In Ankara, arms raised, greeting in the night a crowd of enthusiastic supporters from the balcony of his party, the outgoing president sent, on the evening of the first round, a clear signal to his country: that of stability.

Champion of the Conservative majority

Neither a stay in prison in 1998, nor monster demonstrations, nor even a bloody coup attempt in 2016 stopped the president's march. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is however facing, this year, sharp criticism on the state of the Turkish economy and the anger of the survivors of the earthquake of February 6, left to themselves in the first days after the disaster.

The results of the first round showed that this devout Muslim, a champion of family values, remains the champion of a conservative majority long scorned by an urban and secular elite.

The "réis", which has profoundly transformed its country by building highways, airports and mosques, has also conducted an assertive foreign policy towards the East and Central Asia, even if it means falling out with the West. The war in Ukraine, however, has allowed him to put himself back at the center of the diplomatic game, thanks to his efforts to mediate between Kiev and Moscow.

" READ ALSO – War in Ukraine: Turkey juggles between Moscow and Kiev against a background of economic interests

His critics, especially in the West, continue to worry about his autocratic drift, especially since the massive purges carried out after the coup attempt and the 2017 constitutional revision, which significantly expanded his powers.

Nationalist and religious references

Often portrayed as an unbeatable sultan, the man who has built a palace of more than 1,100 rooms on a protected wooded hill of Ankara, continues to pose as a man of the people against the "elites".

It is on the strength of this posture that he has won every election since his party, the AKP, came to power in 2002. Until the opposition deprived him in 2015 of his parliamentary majority and, above all, that it took away in 2019 the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara, a stinging setback.

Despite a sometimes slowed approach, this political animal with a high stature continues to chain meetings, deploying his qualities as a tribune, drawing on nationalist poems and the Koran as much as on invective to galvanize the crowds.

Ten years after Gezi

In his political launch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan learned the ropes within the Islamist movement of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, before being propelled to the forefront by becoming mayor of Istanbul in 1994. Four years later, in 1998, he was imprisoned for reciting a religious poem, an episode that would only strengthen his aura.

The AKP (Justice and Development Party), which he co-founded, won the elections in 2002. The following year, he became Prime Minister and held this position until 2014. That year, he became the first Turkish president elected by direct universal suffrage.

One of the highlights of his mandate as Prime Minister remains the Gezi protest movement, which began at the end of May 2013. Starting from Istanbul against a real estate project in Gezi Park, it turned into a protest movement against the government. The Turkish authorities then violently repressed the movement.

The "reis" is facing a coup attempt on the night of July 15-16, 2016, which he attributed to his former ally, the Muslim preacher Fethullah Gülen. His triumphant return to Istanbul's former Atatürk Airport marked the defeat of the putschists.

Married with four children, Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to be perceived by his supporters as the only one capable of standing up to the West, the only one who can weather regional and international crises without wavering.

If he is re-elected on Sunday, ten years after the start of the vast Gezi protest movement that he brutally repressed, his grip on the country will assert itself even more, much to the chagrin of his critics.

With AFP

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