Kemal Kilicdaroglu is a patient and tenacious man. The leader of the main opposition party, the social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP), chosen by the Table of Six to face Recep Tayyip Erdogan, managed the feat of forcing him into a second round in the presidential election in Turkey. On 14th May it won 44.9% of the vote, against 49.5% for the Réis, whose aura remains intact despite 20 years in power. Not enough to discourage the so-called "quiet force" for all that.

Despite a favorable ballot for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the former official embarked on a fierce battle to convince voters to change the situation on May 28. A sign of nervousness: he did not hesitate to harden his tone between the two rounds on the fate of refugees and the burning issue of terrorism. A break in style that pushed him to adopt xenophobic rhetoric to seduce the nationalist electorate. A strategy that could also make him lose the support of the undecided or pro-Kurdish voters of the YSP [Yesil Sol, Green Left Party, front man of the HDP] disappointed by his statements on the Kurds.

>> READ ALSO: Presidential election in Turkey: polarize to better rule, the winning electoral strategy of Erdogan

Little known on the international scene, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, has been one of the familiar faces of Turkish politics for many years. His political career began in 2002. This economist by training, a former senior official in the Ministry of Finance, was elected deputy of Istanbul of the CHP, founded in 1923 by the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

>> See also: Turkey: ultranationalism winning? Far-right arguments dominate the campaign

"This is the absolute antithesis of Erdogan. Not only politically, but also personally, says on the set of France 24, Marc Semo, former correspondent in Turkey and journalist at Le Monde. Faced with a flamboyant Erdogan, "bling bling", whose family and relatives have become very rich, he is a rather austere man, gentle, calm, cultivated and always very discreet."

His image as a reserved intellectual contrasts with that of the outgoing president who has established himself as the country's strong man for twenty years. Recep Tayyip Erdogan ironically nicknamed him "Bay Kemal" ("Mr. Kemal"), bay being traditionally reserved for foreigners.

01:47

"He is often criticized for his lack of charisma," says Didier Billion, deputy director of Iris and a specialist on Turkey. Probably, he does not have the same as Erdogan, but this is not a defect for this election campaign for a very simple reason: Turkish society has been variously polarized by Erdogan for many years. A very large part of the population, of the electorate, needs to calm things down."

"Anti-charisma can be charisma," insists Marc Semo. In a situation like Turkey today – the fact that he talks like everyone else, as his wife says, 'it's hard to argue with him' – it can be a trump card."

The progressive metamorphosis of the CHP

In just a few years, the discreet Kemal Kilicdaroglu has managed to impose himself in the public debate. In 2007, already vice-president of the CHP, he began to make headlines by denouncing corruption within the AKP, the Justice and Development Party. The Prime Minister is none other than Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In 2009, he failed to win the mayoralty of Istanbul against AKP candidate Kadir Topbaş but achieved the best score of his party until then in this city. His frail figure and physical resemblance to the Indian champion of non-violence earned him the nickname "Turkish Gandhi". A year later, he resigned from the vice-presidency of the CHP in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey to run for the head of the party whose president, Deniz Baykal, was forced to resign for a matter of morality. Support was massive: he won 1,189 of the 1,250 votes cast. In his first speech he promised that his party's first fight "will be to abolish poverty in Turkey."

Little by little, the Social Democrat is transforming the CHP's line. "His party, the Republican People's Party, is very dogmatic, very attached to Kemalist orthodoxy," recalls Didier Billion. Since he took the lead, he has made it evolve slowly, gradually but with strong convictions. This is proof that under his very calm air, he is able to assert them to his comrades in combat, his electorate, and some of those who, until then, voted for Erdogan."

>> READ ALSO: In Turkey, the Kurds dream of living "in a country without discrimination"

To seduce more, the new president does not hesitate to put aside the defense of secularism, the cornerstone of Atatürk's party, as well as the nationalist heritage. Kemal Kilicdaroglu thus attracts the Kurds, long sidelined, but also the conservatives. For the first time, veiled women enter the CHP. Enough to make its own ranks cringe, but above all a way to seduce an electorate traditionally won over to the AKP.

In 2017, it is the turning point. He began a 450-kilometer march between Ankara and Istanbul to denounce the incarceration of a CHP MP, Enis Berberoglu, sentenced to twenty-five years in prison for providing the opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet with confidential information. His only watchword? Justice. "We marched for justice, we marched for the rights of the oppressed, we marched for imprisoned MPs, we marched for imprisoned journalists, we marched for sacked academics," Kilicdaroglu said, denouncing "the power of one man." "The march for justice, he did it on foot. He gave of himself. He talked to people, he listened," insists Marc Semo. The climate was not confrontational at the time, however, as Turkey had sunk into ferocious repression after the 2016 coup attempt.

In 2019, the CHP won the town halls of several major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara. This is the end of twenty-five years of rule by the AKP and President Erdogan. With these victories, Kemal Kilicdaroglu hardened the tone. In April 2022, in protest against the increase in electricity rates, he stopped paying bills. In his apartment plunged into darkness, the future candidate is on the side of the most modest. "This is my fight for your rights. The rich have become richer and the poor have become poorer!" he said.

He wants to impose himself as the Mr. Clean, the man of probity. He accuses the Turkish Statistical Institute of underestimating inflation figures, officially estimated at 85% in October 2022. Independent economists from the Research Group on Inflation (ENAG) put price increases at 137.5% year-on-year in December, 170.7% in November.

An Alevi candidate, a first

A unifier, Kemal Kilicdaroglu could also seduce minorities. He was born in the historically rebellious region of Dersim (now Tunceli in the east), with a Kurdish and Alevi majority from which 20% of the population comes. "This stronghold of the alevis was deeply repressed in the 1930s by Mustafa Kemal," says Marc Semo.

Alevism is a syncretic cult that mixes philosophy, Gnostic, Sufi and Christian practices. Because it has aspects of Shia Islam such as the worship of Ali [son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad] and the twelve imams, or because it does not adhere to the five pillars of Sunni Islam, Alevism is perceived as a deviant or even heretical practice of Islam.

During the campaign, the candidate broke a taboo by affirming his Alevi identity in a video that went viral.

>> READ ALSO: "I was born Alevi, I did not choose it": in Turkey, the dream of equality of a minority

"If elected, he would be the first Alevi to accede to the Turkish presidency," said Ludovic de Foucaud, correspondent for France 24 in Istanbul. Quite a symbol in a country where minorities feel discriminated against. "All minorities are found in him, insists Marc Semo. It very often calls for a work of collective memory on everything that has happened since the beginning of the Republic. It may have been, according to him, a little harsh with its minorities, especially the Kurds." "This is typically the file of considerable importance on which, calmly, for years, he has evolved his party, continues Didier Billion. He is in touch with Turkish society."

But its origins could also become a handicap, the Alevis are still sometimes considered heretics by the most rigorous Sunni Muslims. An angle of attack that Recep Tayipp Erdogan could use in the campaign to weaken it.

Presidential election in Turkey 🇹🇷:

"The AKP's trump card is #Erdogan itself," according to our correspondent @ludovicdf, guest of the #DebatF24 on Wednesday evening.

The #DebatF24 in replay here ➡️ https://t.co/m8OrCG1mRi pic.twitter.com/I4a3B8zrQ8

— The Debate – France 24 (@DebatF24) March 8, 2023

Still, although many would have preferred to see the popular mayors of Istanbul or Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavaş, knighted against the outgoing president, all agree that he is one of the few who can rally the opposition. "Kemal Kilicdaroglu's strength is not his personality, but that of his opponent," said Ludovic de Foucaud. The opposition wants to insist on what he proposes: it is not a man, but a project. They want to put an end to the "one man rule", this kind of ultra-vertical system, presidentialist, Caesarist as some would say, that Erdogan has built around him."

A project that did not sufficiently convince the Turks to give him the upper hand over Recep Tayip Erdogan in the first round.

The summary of the week France 24 invites you to look back on the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news with you everywhere! Download the France 24 app