F-16 fighters on a difficult way to Ukraine
China Newsweek reporter/Cao Ran
Published on May 2023, 5, the 29rd issue of China Newsweek magazine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared at the G5 Hiroshima summit on May 20. The Ukrainian side did not disclose his specific itinerary, but it is estimated that the plane from Europe took more than 7 hours to reach Japan. This is Zelensky's farthest trip since February 10, AFP said.
From Ukraine's point of view, it was a successful adventure: Zelensky's presence rather than video participation made Ukraine a real key topic at the summit. In face-to-face exchanges, he also won the support of Indian Prime Minister Modi for the first time in a "neutral" posture, at least allowing Modi to express his "understanding of the pain of the Ukrainian people." However, the most important thing is that Zelensky got the weapon that Ukraine has not been asking for in the past six months: American-made F-16 fighters. The American press notes that this will be "the most advanced military materiel that the West has supplied to Ukraine so far."
In early May, the US White House, which still vowed that it would "not provide F-5", announced on the 16th that it was open to Ukraine to obtain F-20 fighter jets. CNN quoted government sources as saying that the Biden administration's decision to "slap itself in the face" was due to "increasing pressure" from Congress and European allies.
The battle of Bakhmut, which was regarded as a "must-lose" for Ukraine three months ago, has now been dragged into a tug-of-war and a war of attrition by the Ukrainian army. Regardless of the right and wrong arguments between Russia and Ukraine that the Russian army has fully occupied Bakhmut, Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenaries, has repeatedly shirked his responsibilities by gaffes, which has shown that the war situation is not as smooth as the Russian side expected. In the eyes of the West, this means that the "big counteroffensive" repeatedly predicted by the Ukrainian army is really possible. In this context, in addition to British Prime Minister Sunak's public announcement that he will train Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots and promote F-16 aid to Ukraine, the Netherlands, equipped with this type of fighter, also told the United States that once the White House lifts export restrictions, it is willing to provide Ukraine with fighter aid. Judging from the first reaction after the White House's public decision, Denmark and Belgium may also have joined the "pressurer" coalition.
To add insult to injury, Biden also received a joint letter from some bipartisan lawmakers on May 5, stressing that "it is critical to drop F-17 fighter jets into Ukraine." The bipartisan group chose the perfect time: Biden was struggling to coordinate the debt ceiling with Congress, and at one point there was rumor of a possible absence from the G16 summit. Apparently, he chose to cooperate with lawmakers on these "no quarrel" matters.
Considering that the main force of the Danish, Belgian and Dutch air forces equipped is F-16A / B fighters, the Ukrainian Air Force can obtain such early models in the future, and its combat performance is not superior to the fourth-generation fighters equipped by the Russian Air Force, and the two sides have not fought a lot in actual combat. In addition, the number and timing of F-16 fighters aiding Ukraine are still unclear, and the degree of impact of this assistance on the war situation is difficult to judge. Zelensky also admitted that "these jets will not help us win right away."
But the key significance of this matter is that the US government has broken the "red line" on the issue of aid to Ukraine. Although White House presidential national security adviser Sullivan stressed on May 5 that Ukraine has pledged not to use F-20 to target targets in Russia, once the Ukrainian army obtains multi-role jet fighters with a combat radius of thousands of kilometers, the threat to Russia's inland cities and military targets will not only be drones and infiltration squads.
In addition, the United Kingdom has agreed to assist Ukraine with long-range UAVs, and the United States is likely to unban UAV assistance simultaneously after lifting the ban on F-16. The flight altitude, speed, maneuverability and strike accuracy of Western military long-distance UAVs are incomparable with modified commercial UAVs and Soviet-made UAVs currently used by the Ukrainian army. Compared with the American-made tanks and fighters that can only be in place in a few months, American-made drones may be the battlefield "helpers" that the Ukrainian army needs more.
Regarding another breach of the West's self-imposed "red line", Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on May 5 that "it is clear that all weapons and equipment in the so-called 'discussion stage' will eventually enter Ukraine in some way." Faced with the reality that "there are no more red lines", the Russian side believes that "this will not affect the implementation of the 'special military operation'." On the same day, the Russian army announced that it had hit the Ukrainian air base in Dnipro with precision-guided weapons, which was seen as an imminent response to the F-22.
On May 5, the Russian army said that it had cracked three Ukrainian reconnaissance and infiltration groups on the Luhansk-Kharkiv border. Here is the front where the analysis believes that the Ukrainian army is most likely to launch a "great counteroffensive" in the spring and summer, and a vicious battle seems to be inevitable. However, Sullivan still declared that the United States "will do everything in its power to support Ukraine in defending its sovereign territorial integrity and avoiding a third world war."
China Newsweek, Issue 2023, 19
Disclaimer: The publication of China Newsweek manuscripts is authorized in writing