Kuwait — Despite expectations of a limited change in the composition of Kuwait's National Assembly in the elections scheduled for June 6, the Kuwaiti political arena is witnessing a great movement among candidates to gain confidence to reach the National Assembly.
Several questions have been raised by the current electoral process in Kuwait about the factors that will enhance the chances of winning one of the parliamentary seats, the most important of which is, will the tribe or social incubator have a role in choosing the candidate? Or will the economic factors and electoral platforms of the candidates decide to win parliamentary seats?
With most members of the 2020 National Assembly, which was dissolved by Emiri decree twice, and the 2022 Assembly, which was abolished on March 19 by a decision of the Constitutional Court, participating in the upcoming elections, judging their performance by voters is not difficult.
Rounds for candidates to gain voter confidence days before the elections (Al Jazeera)
Fierce struggle
Political analyst Faisal al-Sharifi believes that the electoral system in force in Kuwait promotes the principle of individual choice based on social and ideological tendencies, which would influence the convictions of voters when casting their electoral vote. Because this system divides the country into 5 electoral districts, in which 10 members representing each constituency win the council, and gives the voter the right to choose only one candidate, according to the housing data mentioned in the civil ID.
Al-Sharifi adds – in his speech to Al Jazeera Net – that the basic influences in the choices of voters will give great opportunities for success for candidates belonging to the social, sectarian and political components, although "the Kuwaiti parliamentary experience is our habit of a limited penetration of that system whenever there is a candidate who was able to break those barriers."
He explains that the competition between the most fortunate candidates will also depend on the candidate's intellectual and rhetorical potential, his relationships and social communication with the people of his constituency, as well as his ability to persuade and market his electoral programs and the extent of his credibility with voters.
Sharifi believes that expectations of an expected change in the upcoming elections will be very limited, "and the chances of new members entering will not exceed 20%, with most of the most present former members of the National Assembly returning in the 2020 and 2022 councils to run, which means that the struggle in the next assembly will be the fiercest."
Regarding the possibility of a qualitative change in the next assembly, Sharifi believes that the change will focus on increasing the members of the opposition, which turned to loyal and support the government of Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah as Prime Minister, "but this loyalty will be conditional on the ability of the next government to address corruption issues, and its ability to address economic, educational, social, political and health issues, repair infrastructure and road networks, and solve the housing problem and demographics."
Expectations of a limited change in the composition of the next National Assembly (Al Jazeera)
Lack of enthusiasm
For his part, former National Assembly member Hussein al-Quwaian believes that the dissolution of the 2022 National Assembly after a few months of a crisis relationship with the government, and the annulment of the Council through the Constitutional Court, are all factors that led to a state of reluctance at the level of candidates and voters, "and this makes voters unenthusiastic about electoral programs, certain that it is difficult to achieve them without radically changing the constitution."
Al-Quwaian said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, "Here I must emphasize that the return to the tribal incubator, social, sectarian or class has become the decisive element to reach the National Assembly, and accordingly, I think that the rate of change will not be large and will not exceed 30%."
For her part, journalist Al-Jazi Al-Sanafi believes that "there are several factors for the victory of candidates, including previous positions if the candidate was a former member, and if he was his first candidacy, there must be political activities that enabled him to go through the experience."
She added that some of the results are decided for certain candidates because of their popularity, positions, or belonging to some large tribes, and that there are former candidates and members who win because of previous services they provided to the voters of their constituency, expecting the difficulty of winning new candidates or candidates unless they follow a certain current or have a previous parliamentary history, because convincing the voter has become difficult at this time full of crises and political problems.
Service Candidates
Al-Sanafi pointed out, in her speech to Al Jazeera Net, that each electoral district and candidate base of voters, and each constituency requirements, and the most fortunate candidates are candidates who provide services to their constituents, then opponents, then those who are affiliated with the merchant class, and the rest will be their chances varying according to the strength of their speeches or certain positions.
She explained that after stressing the prevention of by-elections for tribes or consultative elections, the situation has become more camouflage, especially in the lack of recommendation of candidates over others, and this may distract votes so that another candidate wins one of the seats in the National Assembly, there are those who find that the fierce opposition is the best, while there is a segment that supports government deputies.
Tribal by-elections are a tradition banned by the Kuwaiti government, as tribal and tribal gatherings were held internally in secret before the official elections to produce what are known as "consensus candidates," which imposed the tribe's vote on the free choice vote guaranteed by law.
Al-Sanafi ruled out that there will be major changes in the composition of the National Assembly, and perhaps there will be simple changes that do not exceed 20 or 30% for candidates, expecting at the same time a decrease in electoral participation so that the participation rate does not exceed 45 or 50% in the upcoming elections.