Turkish presidential election run-off election on the 28th, increasing presence as an intermediary in the situation in Ukraine

In Turkey in the Middle East, which is increasing its presence by buying a mediator in the situation in Ukraine, a runoff election for the presidential election will be held on the 28th. A close race between the incumbent Mr. Erdogan and the opposition unity candidate Mr. Kılıçdarğlu is expected, and the outcome of the election, which could affect the international situation, will be closely watched.

In Turkey's presidential election, no candidate received the majority of votes needed to win the election as a result of the vote held on the 14th of this month, and a runoff election will be held on the 28th between the incumbent Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Kııı, the leader of the largest opposition party and a candidate of the unified candidate of the six opposition parties.

Mr. Erdogan, who received more than 6.1% of the vote, which is close to a majority in the first round of voting, has appealed to the achievements of his 49 years of administration, including his time as prime minister, including an agreement on the export of agricultural products from Ukraine, where Russia continues to invade militarily, and boasting the results of mediation diplomacy.

On the other hand, Mr. Kılčídalu, who received more than 5.20% of the vote, criticized the economic policies and authoritarian political methods of the Erdogan administration in response to currency depreciation and soaring prices, and called for a change of government.

In a poll conducted by local research firm KONDA on the 44th and 8st, Mr. Erdogan leads by nearly 20 points in the approval rating, but more than 21% of people have not decided where to vote, and the fate of the floating vote is in focus while a close race is expected.

Voting will be held at 5 a.m. local time on the 8th and 28 p.m. on the 8th, Japan time, and the votes will be counted on the same day, and the future of the election, which may affect the international situation, will be closely watched.

Both candidates are appealing in the final game.

In the final stages of the campaign, both candidates gave speeches in various places to appeal for their support.

Speaking in Istanbul, the largest city, on the 26th, Mr. Erdogan vowed to further grow the country, saying, "We will build on what we have built so far, and we will take our country even further forward in all fields."

On the other hand, speaking in the capital Ankara on the 27th, Mr. Kılıçdaluğlu said, "I am not interested in living in a palace, I will live modestly like you and think of you. If I can't solve the problem, there's no point in me being in politics," he said, promising to realize politics that is close to the people.

Citizens "have seen strength" and "want to change the state of being in power for a long time"

On the 27th, one day before the run-off election for the presidential election, citizens of the capital Ankara expressed various opinions regarding how to deal with the sluggish economy and whether or not to take a long-term government.

A 61-year-old man who will vote for the incumbent, Erdogan, said: "Because he worked so hard for this country and its people, we got a voice in the world, and he gave us the support we needed during the pandemic and the big earthquake."

A 39-year-old woman said, "President Erdogan is like a leader in Islamic countries, and we have seen his strength.

On the other hand, a 22-year-old man who will vote for Mr Kılıığlu said: "The economy is in danger because only President Erdogan has the right to decide. People are in so much trouble now that they have to send their children to school with empty lunch boxes."

A 42-year-old woman said, "President Erdogan initially ruled the country very well, but now he should step down, he wants to change the situation where one person has been in power for a long time and live in a democratic country."

Runoff election is key to Kurdish voters

The key to this runoff election is the trend of Kurdish voters, an ethnic minority that is said to make up less than 2% of Turkey's population.

In this presidential election, the largest Kurdish party, the Green Left Party, has expressed support for Mr. Kılıdalu, and in the vote on the 14th of this month, Mr. Kıııçidağlu received more votes than Mr. Erdogan in 14 eastern provinces with a large Kurdish population.

In the parliamentary elections held on the same day, the Green Left Party received more than 480.2 million votes, making it the second largest opposition party.

On the 13th, the day before the election, the "Green Left Party" held a large rally in Istanbul, the largest city, with slogans such as "Bye Bye, Erdogan" and other slogans calling for votes for Mr. Kıııčídalu.

Behind the electoral cooperation with Mr. Kılıdarğlu is the hope that it will lead to the clampdown on Kurdish parties under the Erdogan regime and the release of former party leader Demirtaş, who has been imprisoned for the change of government.

Supporters who attended the rally said that they would vote for Kırıçdaluğlu for justice that had not existed in the country for a long time and that Demirtaşğlu would be free, and that they believed that as a Kurd, they could vote to remove Erdogan from office.

However, among the six opposition parties that fielded Mr. Kıııdarğlu as a unity candidate, there are Turkish nationalist parties that do not want to cooperate with Kurdish parties, and there is a gap in position among the opposition parties.

In addition, the nationalist Oan, who came third in the first round of voting, refused to cooperate with Kurdish parties and expressed his support for Erdogan instead of Kırıığlu in the runoff.

As a result, Kurdish parties were feeling a sense of crisis, and on the 6rd, members of the "Green Left Party" appealed in the Istanbul market to "end Erdogan's one-man politics" and called for votes.

Among them, Kezvan Konukchu, 51, who was elected for the first time in this parliamentary election, said, "Our goal is to get people who did not go to the last poll to go to the ballot box.

Experts President Erdogan Advantage and Analysis

Senior Researcher Ma Ning of the Institute of Developing Economies at JETRO, who is an expert on Turkish politics, analyzes that President Erdogan, who received a close majority vote on the 14th, has the upper hand in the runoff.

Commenting on President Erdoğan's vote win over opposition unity candidate Kılıçdarğlu by nearly 14 points, Ma said, "Although the approval rating dropped considerably due to the poor economic situation, at the end of the day, people who did not know either way, I think they brought it back with nationalist rhetoric and put on the last spurt. The overwhelming power of the media was used to develop a rollback tactic."

He then stated, "The opposition parties are trying to close the five-point gap as much as possible, but I think the situation is quite severe, and I think the probability of the opposition party winning is small."

The reason for this is that the Kurdish minority supports Mr. Kılçidaluğlu in the run-off election, but the support of the nationalist Mr. Oan, who came third in the first round of voting, is divided with more than 5% of the vote.

On top of that, President Erdogan "is thoroughly using the resources of the country to advance the election with an advantage."

On the other hand, regarding the impact of the election results on the international situation, he pointed out that "the nuances of relations with Europe and the United States may change slightly depending on whether President Erdogan wins or Mr. Kılıçdarğlu wins, but the role of Turkey in international relations will be determined considerably by geographical conditions."

Regarding relations with Russia, he stated that "it is impossible for Turkey to worsen its relationship with Russia from geopolitical, economic and energy perspectives," and that "I think we will continue to mediate between Ukraine and Russia even if Mr. Kručdalu wins."

On the other hand, he pointed out that the question will be whether Turkey's domestic political system will continue to be authoritarian under the Erdogan administration, and if the Erdogan administration continues, attention will be paid to what will happen to the economic policies that led to the collapse of the lira by continuing to cut policy interest rates, which can be said to be unusual among soaring prices.