At Kadikoy Ferry Terminal, where ships cross the Bosphorus Strait between the Asian and European shores of Istanbul, a struggle to captivate the audience takes place.

A giant screen mounted on a truck on the edge of the seaway shows images of the opposition candidate for the second round of the presidential election, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The latter is heard promising to tackle all the problems currently facing Turkey. According to him, the economy is in tatters, rights and freedoms have diminished and the "politics of negativity" have divided the nation.

Passers-by watch a campaign clip of Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the Kadikoy ferry port in Istanbul. © Leela Jacinto, France 24

A few meters away, the atmosphere is quite different. The stand of the ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party) party is promoting its candidate, outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The speakers emit a vibrant and lively country tune: "Once again... choose Recep Tayyip Erdogan," the speakers launch at full volume. Fans wave flags while following the music.

Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hold a campaign stall at Istanbul's Kadikoy ferry dock. © Leela Jacinto, France 24

A city linking the European and Asian continents, Istanbul appears to be deeply divided between the two candidates who will face each other in a historic electoral face-off: the first presidential second round in Turkey's history, Sunday, May 28. Two weeks earlier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had come close to re-election in the first round, after winning 49.5% of the vote – missing victory by 0.5 points.

Given the economic crisis and the criticism he faced after the management of the double earthquake of February 6, these results are surprising for the one who has ruled Turkey for two decades – eleven years as prime minister and nine as president.

In this campaign, the opposition focused on the Turks' wallet – taking inspiration from the familiar saying during US election campaigns: "it's the economy, idiot". For example, Kemal Kilicdaroglu's "signature" clip, which featured him at a kitchen table, deploring the rise in onion prices.

But it was ultimately emotions that prevailed more than the economy.

The inauguration of the warship TGC Anadolu in Istanbul on April 23 was the culmination of the outgoing president's campaign. "We see in this ship a symbol that will strengthen our position as a key player in the world," Erdogan said at the inaugural ceremony.

Symbolism has been the driving force behind Recep Tayyip Erdogan's meteoric rise to power and his ability to hold it despite obstacles. His discourse – mixing nationalist rhetoric, pan-Islamic heroism and religious and historical references – constitutes a populist ensemble that has swept away its political opponents in the past and looks set to do it again. And to do all this, Recep Tayyip Erdogan can count on Istanbul.

Harnessing Istanbul's rich history

When he was mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was sentenced to prison for referring to a banned poem by an Ottoman-era nationalist. This stay in prison has also fueled a victimhood discourse that has galvanized his supporters.

More than a quarter of a century later, it is on a particular date steeped in history that the outgoing president is preparing to live his first second round of a presidential campaign.

On May 28, 1453, the Ottoman sultan Mehmet II (called "Fatih", which means "conqueror" in English) launched his final assault on Constantinople, demolishing the powerful ramparts of the capital of the Byzantine Empire. The next day, May 29, the city founded by the Roman Emperor Constantine, who had escaped conquest for a millennium, came under the control of the Ottomans.

According to the office of the presidential palace, if Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins the second round on Sunday, May 28, he will travel to Istanbul the day after the election, May 29. This date will mark the 570th anniversary of the conquest of Constantinople by the Ottomans.

"I prefer a courageous leader"

In the city where Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political career began, a few days before Sunday's vote, the "Istanbullus" – as its inhabitants define themselves – are already beginning to behave as if the re-election of the outgoing president was already recorded.

For those who are suffering from the effects of the economic crisis, but who still plan to vote for the Turkish head of state, there is certainly a lack of excitement, but also a kind of comfort in continuity.

Sitting on a public bench in the conservative Fatih district, Hussein Polat, 64, seems resigned to the future of his country. "I was upset, really depressed because of my financial situation, and I didn't want to vote in the first round. But I finally voted, and I chose Erdogan," he said, throwing a handful of seeds at pigeons.

After working for nearly 50 years in a shoe repair shop and tea room, Hussein Polat's economic outlook looks bleak. "I can hardly make ends meet, commodity prices have risen. No one wants to give me a job now that I'm 64. Life is very difficult these days," he says.

Hussein Polat takes a break from feeding pigeons at a park in Fatih, Istanbul. © Leela Jacinto, France 24

However, despite his economic difficulties, Hussein Polat did not opt for change at the ballot box, explaining in particular that he did not know much about Kemal Kilicdaroglu's political programme. "I didn't really have an idea about the other one," he said, referring to the opposition candidate.

This is a common admission among older Turkish voters, who mainly get their news from TV channels after years of crackdown on the press by Erdogan's government.

According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), President Erdogan received 60 times more coverage on the public television channel TRT Haber (TRT News) than his main opponent in April. Kemal Kilicdaroglu was given only 32 minutes, compared to Erdogan's 32 hours, RSF said, citing unnamed sources at Turkey's Supreme Broadcasting Council (RTUK). TRT Haber is "a public channel that behaves not only as a state channel, but as a chain in the service of one candidate against the other," the NGO denounced.

Although he admits his ignorance of Kemal Kilicdaroglu's programme, Hussein Polat says he is convinced that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has more of the qualities of a leader than his social democratic rival. "Erdogan is braver than Kilicdaroglu. I don't believe in Kilicdaroglu's promises. I prefer a courageous and trustworthy leader. With Erdogan, even if we have difficulties with him, he has built bridges and mosques. I am a nationalist and I will vote for the man who is good for the nation," Polat said.

Almost identical sound of bell for Ahmet Alton. During a ferry crossing from the European part of Istanbul to Kadikoy on the Asian side, the retired civil servant said he benefited from President Erdogan's decision to increase pensions by 2,000 Turkish liras ($100) last March. For him, "the opposition is not trustworthy". He adds: "They can make all the promises they want. I don't think they can hold them."

04:21

"I vote for the future of my country": Turks called to ballot for second round © Samia Metheni/France 24

Men, women and sails

While supporters of Recep Tayyip Erdogan have freely expressed their distrust of the opposition, the same has not been true for supporters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Sitting on a bench, watching the sunset while waiting for the ferry, a thirty-year-old architect from the Istanbul district of Üsküdar, agreed to speak anonymously and have her name replaced by Zeinab Bilgin. "I support Kilicdaroglu, but if I reveal it publicly, and if Erdogan wins, if I apply for a job and they research my past, they will know that I support the CHP. Then I will have problems finding work," she said, referring to the Republican People's Party, founded by Mustafa Kemal "Atatürk", father of modern Turkey, and now led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Women's rights are the main electoral issue for Zeinab Bilgin, especially after the surprising results of the conservative Kurdish party Huda-Par (Free Cause Party) in the general elections on 14th May.

Once a fringe party, sidelined for its ties to an Islamist Kurdish armed group operating in the 1990s, Huda-Par has aligned itself with the AKP party in the 2023 elections. The alliance helped the party win four seats in Turkey's 600-seat parliament, causing concern among women's rights activists and advocates.

The Islamist party called for the repeal of laws giving protection to victims of domestic violence, and said women's working conditions needed to be revised to "correspond to their nature."

For Zeinab Bilgin, the rise of political parties such as Huda-Par would mean a step backwards when it comes to women's rights in Turkey. "In the West, people are talking about AI and ChatGPT. In Turkey, we are still talking about the headscarf, religion and 1453," she said, referring to the year Constantinople was conquered by the Ottomans.

This article has been translated from English. Find the original here.

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