The Washington Post did not call Turkey's presidential election "the most important election in the world of 2023" for no reason. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has cleverly benefited from the diminishing global influence of the United States by pursuing an ever-independent foreign policy that promotes his country's interest, which often runs counter to Washington's. With a series of military incursions, he succeeded in undermining the U.S. project for Kurdish autonomy in Syria, which Ankara saw as a matter of national security.
Ali Demirtas, a doctorate in political science at the University of South Carolina, argues in an article in the National Interest magazine that Washington's indifference to Turkey's security has led Erdogan to go ahead with the S-400 deal.
In the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean, he has embraced the concept of a "blue homeland," which delineates Turkey's maritime borders from a land perspective.
Erdogan's opponent, presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is nevertheless determined to roll back Erdogan's perceived foreign policy gains. He considers the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) factions "patriots who are trying to save their homeland."
Kılıçdar is not comparable to Erdogan, because before his candidacy many in the Umma Alliance considered him incompetent and prone to error.
Erdogan is the frontrunner in the May 28 run-off and is likely to lose Kılıçdaroğlu despite Turkey's economic and refugee hardships, issues that plagued Erdogan's campaign.
Demirtas added that Kılıçdaroğlu is not comparable to Erdogan, because before his candidacy many in the Nation Alliance considered him incompetent and prone to error. He referred to the provinces as "countries" with which Turkey should engage in trade. He could not read the first two lines of the Turkish national anthem.
Kılıçdaroğlu has lost 11 times against Erdogan in the past 13 years, he said. Yet he insists on remaining at the head of the CHP, and even anti-Erdogan celebrities as well as young voters staged rallies carrying banners reading "Please Kılıçdaroğlu, don't run."
In contrast, Erdogan's supporters have repeatedly emphasized his charisma and qualities, aspects that make him a leader who has dealt with counterparts such as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden.
The researcher said the discrepancy affected the views of undecided voters. Kılıçdaroğlu gave the impression that he was an unreserved pro-Western politician ready to achieve whatever the United States and Europe dictate.
He commented that this does not bode well for nationalist voters who believe that Washington and Brussels are the cause of Turkey's problems, particularly with regard to PKK terrorism.
Despite the ongoing economic crisis in the country, the majority of Turks viewed Kılıçdaroğlu's flirtation with the Green Left Party as an existential threat to the republic, as the party is widely seen as the PKK's political extension. His attempts to appeal to supporters of Fethullah Gulen, the accused of being behind the 2016 Turkish coup attempt, have further damaged his chances.
The first round of election results shook the Turkish opposition and heralded a disastrous defeat in the run-off. Erdogan's victory would have serious repercussions not only for the Turkish opposition, but would also likely lead to a more assertive foreign policy.