Louise Sallé // Photo credit: GAIZKA IROZ / AFP 06:58, May 23, 2023, modified at 06:58, May 23, 2023

Heat wave, drought... The effects of global warming are severely affecting the France. And the fear of a global failure in the face of global warming, encourages the government to anticipate the worst. The latter predicts a warming of 4 degrees in France by 2100. But what mapping of the France does this scenario allow us to draw up by the end of the century?

What will the France look like with 4 degrees higher than its pre-industrial average temperature? This is the "worst" scenario, if the international community does not manage to bend the curve of CO2 emissions, described by the Minister of Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu in a document submitted this Tuesday to the consultation, for the French but also for communities, elected officials, companies and experts, to find solutions to adapt.

Heat wave, lack of water, extraordinary storms... What mapping of the France does this scenario allow us to draw up in 2100?

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Two months of heat wave per year

If the impacts of climate change are not the same depending on the region, all French people should expect at least two months of heat wave per year, and fifty tropical nights each year in 2100, in the event of a worst-case scenario. And in the most exposed areas, such as around the Mediterranean, these nights are 90 in number.

In the southernmost regions, residents and communities are expected to prepare for more than a month of summer drought, and the disappearance of almost all glaciers, with landslides to be expected.

Once-in-a-century storms become the norm

In urban areas, infrastructure is weakened by drought, walls can crack and foundations can break. On the coast, the sea level will be one meter higher than today. And by 2100, the storms that used to happen every century now occur every year, and many areas near the coast have become uninhabitable.

Finally, the consequences are also economic: the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of the France would be between 6.5% and 13.1% if this scenario is realized in 2100.