The year 2022 has broken a number of records in terms of temperatures, soil drought and water shortages. And if this was just a taste of the France of 2100, how could it adapt? On Tuesday, May 23, the government kicks off its new strategy to deal with warming that could reach 4 ° C.

"The global reality of global warming is imperative (....) we must therefore prepare concretely for its inevitable effects on our territory and on our lives, "said Sunday the Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, in a statement. "This is why we want to provide our country with a clear trajectory in terms of adaptation" in order to "build a model of resilience as close as possible to the realities on the ground and avoid mal-adaptation."

To do this, it launches on Tuesday a public consultation until the end of the summer to define the reference warming trajectory for the adaptation of France (TRACC), on which it will base the next French climate change adaptation plan (PNACC) – expected by the end of the year – in parallel with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The first two versions of this plan, dating from 2011 and 2018, only took into account the hypothesis of the objectives of the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period, i.e. a maximum increase of +3°C for the France. But is this still realistic, when the France is already at 1.7°C?

>> Read also: A warming of + 1.5 ° C in 2030, and after? Why "Every Tenth of a Degree Counts"

The year 2022, the hottest year ever recorded in France since 1900, with the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe, and recent extreme weather events around the world (drought in Spain, heat waves in Asia, hurricane in Burma, drought in the Horn of Africa ...) show that the effects of climate change are accelerating.

The latest IPCC report estimated in March that global warming would reach the 1.5°C mark at the global level by 2030-2035.

Predicting a "more pessimistic scenario"

The government now wants to forecast a "more pessimistic scenario" corresponding to "the probable trend in the absence of additional measures", in which global warming would be 3 ° C, and therefore 4 ° C in metropolitan France.

In this scenario, heat waves could last up to two months and some particularly exposed areas (Mediterranean arc, Rhône corridor, Garonne valley) could experience up to 90 tropical nights per year.

The government expects more intense extreme rains, especially over a large northern half, and droughts lasting more than a month in the summer in the south and west.

Water shortages will multiply with "strong tensions on agriculture and forestry" and "almost all French glaciers will have disappeared". The multiplication of floods will have a "strong impact" on insurance, land use planning and transport.

Finally, "significant risks on all buildings, transport infrastructure and energy, water and telecommunications networks" are to be expected with "marked effects on coastal areas (coastal erosion, marine submersion)".

Warming adaptation measures estimated at at least €2.3 billion per year

At +3°C worldwide, the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) would be between 6.5% and 13.1%, estimates Swiss Re. On the insurance side, damage could increase by 30% by 2050. Agricultural crop losses of 7.4% for wheat and 9.5% for barley are expected in 2050, and for forestry, yield would drop between 4.6% and 11.6% for pine.

Faced with this, the French government, in addition to the measures already effective (Water Plan, Green Fund ...), proposes three projects.

The first will aim to update the various benchmarks (Drias, Drias Water, Climadiag) on which the authorities rely to anticipate the effects of global warming. The second will be a support plan for local authorities, while the third will launch vulnerability studies to adapt economic activity.

"The adaptation measures to be put in place today, regardless of the adaptation trajectory set, represent at least 2.3 billion additional euros per year," the government warns.

With AFP

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