War in Ukraine: Kiev and its Western allies face the stakes of its expected spring offensive

Europe 1 with AFP / Photo credit: OLEKSANDR GIMANOV / AFP 07:28, May 19, 2023, modified at 07:29, May 19, 2023

THE ESSENTIALS

The likely Ukrainian military offensive in the spring will be evaluated in the light of Kiev's possible territorial gains against Russian forces and will also make it possible to gauge the effectiveness of the massive armaments aid provided by NATO countries, say several experts. If the new armed push against Russia were to become bogged down, Western fears of a protracted and hopeless conflict would only be strengthened.

Such a hypothesis would also provide ammunition for a whole fringe of elected officials in Washington and Europe who oppose unconditional support for Ukraine.

Information to remember:

• In both the United States and Europe, there remains the fear that the war in Ukraine "will become a perpetual conflict."
• International military aid to Kiev thus amounts to tens of billions of dollars.

"If the offensive is not a great success, I think they will be pointing accusing fingers a lot," said Mark Cancian, an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, noting that Ukraine could cite the lack of weapons and ammunition it had heavily used as a factor in the failure.

Fear that war in Ukraine will become "a perpetual conflict with no clear outcome"

In the United States as in Europe, there remains the fear that the war in Ukraine "will become a perpetual conflict (...) with no clear outcome, resulting in a large number of casualties and costing money," Cancian said. But William Courtney, a Washington researcher at the RAND think tank, said Western support should continue to pour in even if the Ukrainian counteroffensive doesn't go as hoped.

"Europe and the United States have shown resolute support for Ukraine. This is unlikely to change despite the protests of some politicians with isolationist or pessimistic tendencies," he said.

Ukraine has already made considerable gains against Russian forces, but aside from fierce fighting in and around the city of Bakhmut, there has been some lull on the front line since the Ukrainian army recaptured Kherson last year.

International military aid to Kiev thus amounts to tens of billions of dollars.

Russia has used this time interval to reinforce its lines of defense, which Ukrainian troops will have to break through to expect a success of their offensive. "The Russians have been entrenched for months now and you can see that they have prepared a lot of positions," Cancian said. "The Ukrainians are going to have to drill down that front line in order to get all their new armored weaponry beyond the fortifications into open ground," he said.

Ukraine's supporting countries have made considerable investments in its armed forces, including providing more than 230 armoured tanks. International military aid to Kiev thus amounts to tens of billions of dollars, led by the United States.

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In addition to the armoured vehicles and other vehicles supplied, assistance to Ukraine includes a number of air defence systems, precision rocket launcher systems, artillery pieces, and -- among others -- a wide range of ammunition.

The U.S. has trained 11 Ukrainian battalions, or 6,100 troops.

The United States has also trained 11 Ukrainian battalions, representing some 6,100 troops, in combined weapons operations (air, land,...) and some 4,000 more on weapons systems. Twenty other countries have also undertaken to train Ukrainian soldiers.

But beyond the defense resources that Western countries have given to Ukraine, they have "also invested political capital," says Gian Gentile, a historian at the RAND organization. He notes the presence of a "powerful and active political minority" in the United States that opposes support for Kiev. "Clearly the stakes are high for the United States and NATO in this probable counter-offensive," and "it seems that Ukraine, especially its senior political and military leaders, understand the importance" of this one as well, said Gian Gentile.

For the historian, it will be necessary to use patience to clarify the results of the Ukrainian offensive. He said he hoped that "the United States and NATO will understand that every battlefield (...) is different." The contours of the "battlefield of this future counter-offensive may take weeks or even months to reveal before we know the outcome."