This roadmap, entitled "Turn off the tap", is published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) two weeks before the second stage, in Paris, of the negotiations that should lead to a legally binding international treaty by the end of 2.

"Plastics play a positive role in society in many ways," writes UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. "There is, however, a flip side to the coin: the way we produce, use and dispose of plastics pollutes ecosystems, threatens human and animal health and destabilizes the climate."

In 2019, 353 million tons of plastic waste were produced worldwide, 22% of which ended up abandoned, i.e. in uncontrolled landfills, burned in the open or discharged into nature.

The report therefore recommends "in the first place to eliminate problematic and unnecessary plastics", in particular by "halving the production of single-use plastics".

But beyond this ephemeral category, UNEP does not directly mention a target of reducing the production of all plastics at source, which could double by 2040.

Research estimates that by that date plastic could emit 19% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

In contrast, UNEP highlights a pollution reduction target, predicting 408 million tonnes of waste to be managed in 2040 if the current economic model continues. This would translate into 227 Mt of plastics abandoned in the environment.

To avoid this, the UN programme urges the international community to adopt a "scenario of systemic change", based on "three market changes: reuse, recycle, diversify".

Such a revolution, says the report, could reduce this abandoned waste to 41 Mt in 2040, an 80% reduction in forecasts.

"Promoting reuse, bulk sales, deposit systems, return of packaging, can reduce (this) plastic pollution by 30%," the report estimates.

The two scenarios on the future of plastic © Sabrina BLANCHARD, Julia Han JANICKI / AFP

"A further 20% reduction can be achieved if recycling becomes more stable and cost-effective," including by "removing fossil fuel subsidies" that make new plastics too cheap.

"Replacing packaging, bags and takeaway with alternative materials (paper or compostable) can add a 17% reduction," the report said, which was based on calculations by the Pew Charitable Trusts and Systemiq.

700,000 jobs

"Even with these measures, 100 Mt of single-use, short-lived plastics will still need to be processed each year by 2040, not counting the considerable legacy of existing plastic pollution."

This transition would save $4.5 billion, estimates UNEP, which forecasts 700,000 jobs created, mainly in poor countries.

For Hirotaka Koite, head of Greenpeace contacted by AFP, "the report falls far short of the necessary ambitions" because "it does not talk about reducing overall production".

Even before talking about "reuse", the conclusions "significantly underestimate the role that reducing +use+ can play" and give "too much credit to chemical recycling".

"They tried to change a pipe, to replace the valves, but they don't really try to turn off the tap," said the observer.

Dead fish trapped in plastic packaging, in the Gulf of Bothnia, Finland, May 3, 2023 © OLIVIER MORIN / AFP/Archives

However, it welcomes the consideration of the whole life cycle to assess alternatives, warnings against greenwashing of falsely "degradable or compostable" plastics, and the removal of subsidies.

On the side of the Surfrider Foundation, on the contrary, we welcome a "real change of economic model", credible and not based on hypothetical technological solutions.

"If the report spoke more explicitly about +production reduction+, big countries would never sign the treaty," said Diane Beaumenay-Joannet, campaigner at Surfrider.

According to her, this roadmap assumes a "more environmental" approach than the OECD's 2022 reference report "which was maintained in a logic of wealth growth".

© 2023 AFP