Turkey: "A priori, there will be a change of power," says political analyst Bayram Balci

Alexandre Dalifard / Photo credit: BULENT KILIC / AFP 16:14 pm, May 14, 2023

Should we continue in the same direction or take another path? 64 million Turkish voters must choose this Sunday the one who will show the way: Erdogan, in power for 20 years, or an opposition united behind a candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. For the first time the outgoing president is more threatened than ever and the election promises to be extremely close. Present in Europe 1, political scientist and researcher at Sciences Po's international research center, Bayram Balci, returns to this opposition that divides Turkey more than ever.

"Indeed, it will be quite tight. It is planned and it is announced by all the polls and opinion polls. This is representative of a Turkey that is divided between Erdogan and Kiliçdaroglu. Many of the questions are divisive issues. But a priori, all the polls show that there will be a change of power, "admits the specialist at the microphone of Europe 1.

Two distinct decades

But after 20 years in power, what is the record for the outgoing president? "Erdogan's first decade is quite positive at all levels, economic, foreign policy and even democratization. The second is much duller, both economically and on human rights, freedom and foreign policy," Balci said. For him, it is probably the latter that is tiring the Turkish population, embarrassed and pained by the economic situation and the image of Turkey, decried abroad. "I think these are things that will play into the choice of Turkish voters this Sunday," he admits.

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If the population seems more than divided in Turkey, especially because of the inflation that the country is experiencing, the Turkish diaspora generally leans in favor of Erdogan. Notably in France, they voted 63% for the incumbent president five years ago. Why such an observation? "It's a general trend. Often, Turks abroad vote much more conservative because they originally come from traditional Anatolia. They also have a much more romantic look compared to Turkey. They have the feeling that it is she who embodies, in quotation marks, the real Turkey," says the political scientist.

Who is Kemal Kiliçdaroglu?

Facing Erdogan, for the first time, an opposition is united behind the candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. "Originally, he belongs to a political movement, to a very Kemalist, secular, and Western political family. But also, on certain foreign policy issues, he is very sovereignist," says the researcher. According to him, in recent years, because of Erdogan's authoritarian drift, the opposition, in order to be able to defeat him, has become much more moderate, more liberal. Moreover, he is also the leader of a coalition of these political parties that is very heterogeneous and heterogeneous. "If he comes to power, that will be the difficulty. That is to say, to manage and reconcile the various tendencies that are at the center of the opposition," said Bayram Balci.

The silence of European leaders

Faced with this presidential election, European leaders are adopting a very cautious silence. "Which is very wise. This is the best way to help Turks choose for themselves. They don't dare to intervene because if they had been too critical of Erdogan's policies, I think it would have served him indirectly. As a result, the attitude has been quite responsible. In any case, they will have to deal with the same issues, the same difficulties. It is better not to take a position so that there is respect for the choice of the Turks," said the political scientist.

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For Bayram Balci, the opposition will come to power, if it happens, with a much more moderate style. "On the other hand, on certain issues that anger, that divide Europeans, Westerners and Turkey, I think there will be difficulties, especially on the Cyprus issue, on the country's intervention in Libya, in Syria, and on the Armenian question," he told Europe 1. Things will still remain, so it will be up to both parties to make efforts to manage them together.