Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again found himself facing challenges, hot files and problematic bills, with the opening of the Knesset's summer session, on Monday evening, in a situation that reflects the depth of the conflict and internal polarization in the Israeli political scene.
As protests against Justice Minister Yariv Levin's plan to amend the judiciary widened, attempts to exempt the Haredim from military service came with a special law and replace it with a Basic Law of "Torah Learning" as a supreme value to defend the Jewish national home, as well as to preserve the sanctity of the Sabbath and enshrine biblical teachings in daily life.
Against the backdrop of protests to weaken the judiciary and undermine the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court, issues and files have surfaced that deepen the internal conflict and polarization, regarding the relationship between religion and the state, the identity and Jewishness of the state, and the status of the so-called "People's Army."
The return of conflict and challenges to the parliamentary forefront was preceded by the disclosure of the results of opinion polls by Israeli television stations, which showed the decline in the popularity of Netanyahu and Likud, the decline in the strength of the parties participating in the current coalition, and the return of the opposition to power if new elections are held.
Decline in popularity
Three public opinion polls conducted by Israel's Channels 3, 11 and 13 showed that the popularity of Netanyahu and the Likud Party fell to the lowest level with a maximum of 14 seats, as well as the decline in the parliamentary strength of the parties participating in the current coalition, with a maximum of 25 seats, knowing that their current strength is 58 seats.
According to the polls, the current opposition parties will be able to obtain 67 seats, and even if they do not obtain the support of the Arab list "Front and Change", which is granted by opinion polls 5 seats, they will be able to form a government coalition based on 62 seats, knowing that its current parliamentary strength is 51 seats.
The results of the polls indicated a decline in Netanyahu's popularity and obtained 34% of the votes that believe that he is the most suitable to form a government, while the "National Camp" won 30 seats and its president Benny Gantz received 48% of the votes, results that indicate that Netanyahu will not be able to form the next government if he goes to parliamentary elections.
In response to these developments and opinion polls, Netanyahu has prioritized restoring the Likud's position and putting down internal conflicts or any signs of insurgency attempts by seeking to pass laws of a socio-economic nature.
In an effort to restore public confidence, Netanyahu and his government are betting on fighting the high cost of living, lowering the prices of basic products, eliminating university tuition fees for soldiers, free education for the early childhood generation, as well as finding a compromise formula to exempt the ultra-Orthodox from military service.
Scenarios and quirks
In reading the gloss and implications of opinion polls that indicate a decline in the popularity and strength of Likud, Netanyahu and the parties of the government coalition, political and party affairs analyst Muhammad Majadleh believes that the lower the graphs that show that the number of coalition seats is declining, the lower the chances of dismantling the government and heading to new elections.
With the impossibility of Netanyahu forming any future government, he confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that there will be no new elections for the Knesset in the next stage, pointing to the possibility of Netanyahu heading to make changes in the composition of the government.
He attributed this to the fact that all the parties that make up the coalition are well aware and convinced that the dissolution of dismantling the current government, dissolving the Knesset and going back to the polls is political suicide that will push it to the opposition chair and remove it from the reins of power and influence.
But he does not rule out the scenario of elections in the event of a very important matter or development, which may put Netanyahu in front of many challenges during the parliamentary summer session, which are the challenges and obstacles that Netanyahu seeks to overcome and overcome to avoid a scenario of new elections.
In the face of these challenges, Mujadala says Netanyahu will circumvent negotiations with opposition parties under the auspices of Israeli President Isaac Herzog on judicial amendments, as he seeks to buy time to ratify the amendments with some cosmetic changes.
Netanyahu's and Likud's popularity is declining, according to opinion polls (Al Jazeera Net)
Challenges and changes
He explained that Netanyahu may reach the conviction that if he manages to face the challenges of the need to make changes in the government coalition and dispense with Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and replace them with the "National Camp" headed by Gantz, who has become highly popular and the strongest candidate to form the next government in the event of new elections.
He does not believe that Netanyahu or any future prime minister can succeed in healing headaches, stopping societal disintegration and containing the conflict in Israel, pointing out that the features of this conflict have crystallized since the "establishment of Israel", which all successive governments sought to avoid by exporting the crisis of internal conflict abroad.
The internal conflict is likely to deepen at a time when Israel still defines itself as Jewish and democratic, a contradiction that even since the era of Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, the religious as well as secular liberal current has sought to resolve by betting on fusion.
Conflicts and crises
The same argument was adopted by political analyst Akiva Al-Dar, who explained that Netanyahu faces many challenges, most notably judicial amendments, religious coercion, undermining freedoms, exempting Haredi from military service, and approving the state budget until the end of May.
He explained that not passing the budget means the immediate dissolution of the Knesset and heading to new legislative elections, the results of which may be disastrous for Netanyahu and Likud in particular, which reflects the depth of conflicts, internal crises and instability of governance in Israel.
To avoid this scenario, Aldar likely to Al Jazeera Net that Netanyahu will continue to take a lot of steps and populist measures in order to restore his popularity and the confidence of the Israeli public, and absorb the state of anger after issuing a decision to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and dealing with the army, and judicial amendments, as well as the problems of dealing with the Palestinians, and ways to address the file of Syria and Iranian influence.
Extortions and modifications
Therefore, Akiva Aldar ruled out that the government will dismantle itself and go to new elections, noting that Netanyahu will remain under blackmail and hostage to religious, ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties to ensure the survival of the government, but he may resort to changes in the coalition.
The political analyst attributed the scenario of Netanyahu making changes to the government coalition to curbing the popularity and growing strength of Gantz's movement in the opposition, as his inclusion in the coalition will put Gantz in the circle of partnership and responsibility.
It is believed that Netanyahu has strengthened his convictions that the current government coalition is undesirable regionally and globally, so he is betting on changing the coalition to return to the path of relations with these parties.