Washington — The outbreak of fighting between Sudan's military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) two weeks ago prompted U.S. concern about the potential negative repercussions on the normalization of Sudanese-Israeli relations.

Last February witnessed a public visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to Khartoum, after which the Sudanese Foreign Ministry announced the agreement with Israel "to move forward in order to normalize relations between the two countries and develop them in various fields."

During Cohen's visit, in which he was accompanied by a security and diplomatic delegation, the Israeli minister met with senior Sudanese officials, led by Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, where they discussed prospects for joint cooperation, especially in the security and military fields, according to a statement issued at the time by the Sovereignty Council.

Upon his return from Khartoum, Cohen announced that Israel and Sudan would sign a peace deal within months in Washington after the text of the agreement to establish relations was agreed upon during his visit to Khartoum.

America fears that the conflicting parties in Sudan will not be able to confront the current rejecting normalization with Israel (Anatolia)

Incomplete part

The administration of former President Donald Trump succeeded in pushing Sudan to recognize Israel and start the path of normalizing relations with it after removing Sudan from Washington's list of "state sponsors of terrorism" as it calls it, while the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco officially recognized Israel in 2020 within the so-called "Abraham Accords" that took place under the auspices of the United States and established diplomatic relations between these Arab countries and the Israeli occupation.

But Sudan has been reluctant to take the same steps before obtaining U.S. guarantees, including judicial immunity from any future cases involving victims of past operations or attacks, as well as economic and financial support for Sudan.

In a paper published by Ehud Yaari, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, one of the consequences of the fighting that has erupted between the two rival generals in Sudan since mid-April is the possible termination of understandings Khartoum reached with Israel on normalizing relations.

The Washington Institute is one of the leading think tanks associated with Republican and Democratic administrations on Middle East issues. Senior State Department Middle East officials worked at the Institute before leading the region, whether in the case of David Schenker under President Trump or Barbara Leaf in the current Biden administration.

The complexity of the normalization file

The United States played a key role in bringing Israel and Sudan closer together by revoking Sudan's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, lifting related sanctions, providing financial assistance to it, and pushing international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF to open up to Khartoum.

The normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel was planned to take place immediately after the framework agreement was consolidated, especially with regard to the formation of a civilian government and the holding of parliamentary elections that would allow the new Sudanese parliament to ratify the agreement with Israel, Yaari said. The researcher expressed concern about what he described as "increasing the influence of Islamist and leftist forces" opposed to normalization.

In recent years, Tel Aviv has focused its relations with Khartoum with the military component, especially the army led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and to a lesser extent on the Rapid Support Forces.

In his study, Yaari highlighted the Sudanese popular rejection of the idea of normalization with Israel, cited the failure of the attempt to establish a "Sudanese-Israeli Friendship Association" in Khartoum, and noted that the humanitarian aid sent by an Israeli NGO did not receive any publicity or press coverage.

At the same time, the researcher spoke of "an increase in the number of visits by high-level Sudanese military delegations that arrived on semi-secret missions to request assistance."

"The two-and-a-half-year delay in translating the normalization declaration into a signed peace agreement jeopardized the entire process," Yaari said, and even if Sudan formed a civilian government in the near term, it might turn out to be reluctant to test the public mood by concluding a treaty with the "Zionist enemy," as Israel is often referred to by the local press, social media commentators, and politicians.

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If Burhan wins his rivalry with Hemedti, his Islamist allies may persuade him to stop normalization or at least slow it down, Yaari believes. Similarly, if Hemedti prevails in the ongoing conflict, he will have to take into account how the NPG and "other potential partners feel toward Israel."

At the same time, most civilian factions in Sudan fear losing U.S. support, which may require "warning Sudan that it will lose the U.S. benefits granted to it in compliance with the initial normalization declaration."

Yaari advises Washington to pressure Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to pressure Khartoum so that "the next civilian government is steered away from abandoning the peace path paved by the generals."