Towards becoming the "most populous country", how can India's "demographic dividend" be realized?

(International observation) Towards becoming the "most populous country", how to achieve India's "demographic dividend"?

Beijing, 4 Apr (ZXS) -- Question: How can India's "demographic dividend" be realized as it moves toward becoming the "most populous country"?

China News Agency reporter Bo Wenwen

When exactly will India become the "most populous country"? The issue has been in the spotlight since the United Nations released its World Population Prospects 7 forecast last July that "India will become the world's most populous country by 2022."

On April 4, a number of foreign media quoted United Nations data as reporting that India's population is expected to reach the world's largest place in the middle of this year. Earlier, Bela Hovy, who published the report in charge of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told the China News Agency that it was impossible to know exactly when the incident occurred due to the limitations of the available data, and said that the agency was preparing a briefing for it, which was expected to be released in the second half of April.

No matter when it happens or officially announced, how to turn "quantity" into "quality" and realize a real "demographic dividend" should be a topic that India must face on the road to "global population first".

The move towards "population first" is mixed

For India, the prospect of becoming the world's "most populous country" is a mixed blessing.

The good news is that India has an abundant pool of young labor. Over the past three decades, India has had a high fertility rate, a decline in infant mortality and a younger population. The data shows that the median age of the Indian population is 28 years old, and two-thirds of the Indian population is under 35.

Zhou Rong, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Chinese Minmin University, told the China News Agency that India is currently in a period of economic upswing, with a rapid development rate and a large number of labor as a supplement, and it is good news to have a sufficient young workforce.

The BBC also believes that two-thirds of Indians were born after India's economic liberalization in the early 20s, and that this generation of young people will become the largest source of consumers and labor in the knowledge and network economy.

However, the disadvantages of a large population are also obvious. Zhou Rong said that India's population is the same as China's, but its land area is less than one-third of China's, and the dense population makes it significantly more difficult to eradicate poverty and hunger and improve the health and education system. "Although India's population growth is declining, the infrastructure in vast rural areas cannot keep up with the population growth, and the pressure to lift out poverty will continue to increase."

The release of the "demographic dividend" is obstructive and long

What is the "demographic dividend"? The United Nations Population Fund, defined by the United Nations Population Fund as "the potential for economic growth that may arise from changes in the age structure of the population", is most readily available when the proportion of a country's working-age population (15 to 64 years of age) is larger than that of the non-working-age population.

The United Nations Population Fund also pointed out that if a country's working-age population has good health, quality education and decent employment for a period of time, and the proportion of children raised is low, it will help families invest more in the education and development of children, women have more freedom to engage in formal work, and families can accumulate more savings for the elderly, then the national economy can get huge returns and achieve a "demographic dividend".

It can be seen that whether the "demographic dividend" can be realized and turned into a driving force for economic growth depends not only on the size of the population, but also on how to ensure the healthy and equitable development of medical care, education, employment and other fields.

"At present, India's industrial structure and population quality restrict the release of the 'demographic dividend'." Liu Xiaoxue, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to reporters that India's service industry accounts for more than 50% of GDP, while manufacturing accounts for only 15%, and the service industry dominated by the information technology industry cannot provide a large number of jobs. At the same time, India's weak basic education has led to a shortage of qualified labor.

Zhou Rong believes that India "may have a long way to go" to improve its education level and cultivate a high-quality population.

How to monetize the "demographic dividend"?

In order to promote the realization of the "demographic dividend", the Indian government has taken some measures. Liu Xiaoxue introduced that Indian Prime Minister Modi launched the "Make in India" plan after coming to power in 2014, aiming to increase the proportion of manufacturing in India's GDP from 15% to 25%. "In recent years, India has vigorously developed its local manufacturing industry, and through the introduction of industrial policies, it encourages and attracts foreign investment to set up factories, reduces import dependence and expands domestic employment."

Liu Xiaoxue believes that for India, the most urgent issue at present is how to create jobs. "Developing an export-oriented manufacturing sector can provide a lot of jobs and rapid economic growth. At the same time, the quality of the population must also keep up with the needs of economic development. ”

Education and health issues are also receiving increasing attention from the Indian government. Liu Xiaoxue said, "The Modi government continues to promote the construction and development of primary, higher and medical education. In addition, India's investment in health is also increasing due to the pandemic. ”

In Zhou Rong's view, India should increase policy preferences, narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, eliminate gender discrimination, and ensure equal access to education and employment opportunities for all. At the same time, measures should be taken to reduce the brain drain and attract Indians living and working abroad to return home to participate in construction. (End)