Recently, the Ukrainian media, politicians and Western media have been actively discussing a possible counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A variety of data and assumptions are heard and published.

So, on April 19, on the air of the telethon, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said that the Ukrainian army was in fact already conducting a counteroffensive and it was wrong to wait for the announcement of a specific date.

As the official explained, the counteroffensive implies a whole range of different measures that are now being implemented by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about the training of people, reserves, the formation of plans with various scenarios of hostilities.

In the short term

According to alleged secret Pentagon documents, dated February 27 - March 1 and hit the media in April, the counteroffensive was planned for April 30. This information was published on April 16 by the American magazine Newsweek, having studied more than 40 materials.

The rest of the foreign media and officials refrain from announcing any date for the counteroffensive, but note that this is a matter of the near future.

So, last week, during a press conference in Washington, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could begin in the near future and with the support of the United States.

The topic of a possible counteroffensive was one of the main topics in an interview with Ukrainian Ambassador to London Vadym Prystaiko to Newsweek journalists on April 18. The diplomat complained about the "unhealthy" obsession with this idea.

Speaking about the prospects for the possible transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the attack, Prystaiko said that the Russian Armed Forces learn from mistakes, so Kyiv needs to conduct a more effective operation than near Kharkov in September 2022. Moreover, the diplomat admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may not succeed on the battlefield.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian leadership demonstrates its conviction in the need for a counteroffensive. In mid-April, in an interview with ABC News, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, noted that success on the battlefields is extremely necessary for Kiev. If it does not exist, then partners in the West will ask questions about the advisability of supporting Ukraine.

In March, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, spoke about the intention of the Ukrainian army to go on the offensive. From his point of view, it is beneficial for Ukrainian forces to continue to fight for Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). According to Syrsky, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can take advantage of this for a subsequent successful counteroffensive.

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At the same time, in a commentary to RT, retired Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk said that the situation in the Artyomovsk region looks completely opposite to the one that Syrsky made public.

"It is because of the fierce battles for Artyomovsk that the Kyiv regime is not able to properly form a fist for a large-scale counteroffensive. To contain the advancing Wagnerians, Kiev spends a lot of reserves - human and material. Since the end of last year, we have thoroughly thinned out a large number of combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including elite ones," Matviychuk emphasized.

Speaking about the date of the proposed counteroffensive, the expert suggested that it could occur simultaneously with the major NATO exercises in Europe Defender 23. The start of the maneuvers is scheduled for April 22. Troops from almost 25 countries will take part in them.

"It cannot be ruled out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to take advantage of the fact that some part of the Russian forces will be diverted to Defender 23," Matviychuk believes.

Risk of underestimation

According to various sources, the Ukrainian army can have tens and even hundreds of thousands of fighters to break through the front.

According to supposedly leaked secret Pentagon documents, nine brigades that are part of the 10th Ukrainian Operational Corps should be thrown to break through the positions of the Russian Armed Forces.

These units are fully equipped with NATO weapons. In total, they plan to supply 253 tanks, 381 armored vehicles, 480 motorized vehicles, 147 artillery weapons, 571 HMMWV armored cars.

In early April, Reuters reported on the formation of eight new assault brigades under the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine with a total number of 40 thousand people for use during the counteroffensive in the coming weeks or months.

Earlier, Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have trained about 200 thousand recruits. On April 9, at a meeting with activists of the Cyber Front Z movement, he said that, "according to some sources," the human reserves of the Kyiv regime could number up to 400 thousand fighters. Prigozhin stressed that the enemy should not be underestimated.

According to The Washington Post, in connection with the planned counteroffensive, the Ukrainian authorities are conducting a new wave of mobilization and have intensified agitation among the population. Journalists recalled that in 2023, almost 250 thousand Ukrainians will turn 18 years old, which means that many of them can be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Earlier, the authors of the Military Chronicle (Telegram channel. - RT) drew attention to the need to take seriously the measures to prepare the Kyiv regime for a possible counteroffensive.

In particular, analyzing the Pentagon documents allegedly leaked to the media, journalists reported on a large number of inadequate conclusions made by their compilers. According to the Military Chronicle, the materials falsified the indicators of the combat readiness of the Ukrainian troops and mentioned "an irrelevant amount of military equipment."

"For example, out of 109 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles sent by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for some reason, only 99 participate in the offensive. Moreover, the vehicles are not distributed among brigades and are enrolled in only one compound - the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which does not have heavy tanks. Instead of the Soviet T-72 or T-64BV, this brigade contains only Slovak T-55S with 105 mm guns, which are difficult to use in a large-scale offensive, "the Military Chronicle emphasized.

  • President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky surrounded by military in Donetsk region
  • © Office of the President of Ukraine

Journalists believe that the secret documents were most likely prepared and distributed "not by the military, but by a group of civilian, probably pro-Ukrainian analysts."

"The purpose of this stuffing may be to underestimate the real number of combat-ready and deployed for the offensive formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or to divert attention from other events related to the real offensive," the authors of the Military Chronicle argue.

In a commentary to RT, RISS expert Sergei Ermakov noted that there should be no trust in a lot of public and leaked information. Their real authors may be the special services of Ukraine or Western countries.

The analyst recalled that on the eve of the spring-summer period favorable for hostilities, the United States and its allies began to actively equip the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy equipment and other weapons: Leopard tanks, M109L self-propelled howitzers, and various types of armored vehicles. In the near future, the Kyiv regime is expected to be supplied with Soviet MiG-29 light fighters, self-propelled guns of French CAESAR artillery mounts and NASAMS, Iris-T, Patriot and SAMP / T air defense systems.

'Big demands'

In a conversation with RT, military expert Alexei Leonkov suggested that the Kyiv regime has or will soon receive enough resources for an offensive, and in several directions.

"NATO supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and supplies well. In principle, our adversary should have enough human and material resources to try to launch an offensive in different geographical directions, but only one of them will be the direction of the main attack, the rest will be distracting, "Leonkov argues.

Of the directions of a possible counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Leonkov singled out the northern and southern. In the north, the enemy can strike at the positions of the RF Armed Forces near the settlements of Kreminnaya, Svatovo, Kupyansk and try to make sorties in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions.

"The terrain in the northern direction, due to forests and folds, is favorable in terms of camouflage, but it is difficult to deploy heavy equipment there. The situation in the south is completely different. This is the most, if I may say so, tank-dangerous direction, but there are clearly visible clusters of all types of equipment for which the RF Armed Forces are capable of working, "Leonkov said.

The most ambitious task for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the seizure of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and access to the Crimea with the cutting of the land corridor that connects the peninsula with the rest of Russia, Leonkov believes.

Anatoly Matviychuk adheres to the same point of view about the geography of possible attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. True, the expert is convinced that the Kyiv regime does not have the resources for this and they are unlikely to appear.

According to the expert, for minimal support for large ground formations, Kiev will need at least more than 100 units of manned aircraft - attack helicopters and multi-purpose aircraft like the F-16, as well as a significant amount of military air defense equipment to cover ground forces.

  • Engineering arrangement of one of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
  • © General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

In the Western media, in particular, in recent publications of the Financial Times, it is also reported about the lack of equipment to deploy a large-scale offensive against the positions of the RF Armed Forces. According to the publication, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in dire need of anti-aircraft missile systems, ammunition and fighters to gain air supremacy.

According to Matviychuk, the West and Kyiv cannot but be aware of the problem of the lack of effective means to combat Russian aviation, which has also begun to use adjustable bombs that allow strikes without entering the enemy air defense zone.

"Without ground and air cover, all concentrations of enemy troops at the front risk becoming a target for our Aerospace Forces. And here it will no longer matter much the number of forces concentrated and thrown to break through our defense," Matviychuk said.

According to the expert, due to the risk of too large losses, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are more likely to take diversionary actions in the Kherson region and Zaporozhye and send DRGs to the western regions of the Russian Federation.

"In my opinion, there will be no really serious attempts to reverse the situation because of the risk of actual defeat. If the counteroffensive, announced many times, nevertheless begins in the coming weeks, then our enemy will inevitably suffer very sensitive losses, and Russia will have the opportunity for a crushing blow, "Matviychuk said.

Oleksiy Leonkov also believes that if an attempt is made to break through the Russian defenses, the Kyiv regime may lose almost all large ground forces thrown into battle. True, this risk, according to the expert, may not deter the Kyiv regime from attempting a large-scale offensive.

"The enemy has the strength to launch a counteroffensive. This must be clearly understood. Another issue is that the cost of failure will be prohibitive. This is the destruction, perhaps, of all people and equipment thrown into the breakthrough," Leonkov said.

Vadym Prystaiko also reported on the risk of major losses in an interview with Newsweek.

"The number (of military personnel studying in the UK. - RT) will grow. I know that we need to prepare these people. And I hope that some of them will survive," Prystaiko said.

According to Sergei Ermakov, sober heads in Ukraine and in the West are aware of the risks of a "general battle scenario". However, the factor of the election race in the United States and the desire of the Zelensky regime to demonstrate to external curators that large-scale military assistance from NATO countries can bring significant practical results intervene in the situation.

  • Self-propelled howitzer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
  • © General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

"Washington and Kiev have very large and incommensurable requests. For the Biden administration, the main donor of the Kyiv regime, it is important to demonstrate that the United States was able to defeat Russia with the hands of the Ukrainians. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to justify the large costs of helping Ukraine. Zelensky and Zaluzhny (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. - RT) also understand that without demonstrating success, support will be greatly curtailed, "says Yermakov.

A separate concern, as Yermakov suggests, in the West and in Kyiv was caused by the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the NWO zone. During the trip, the Russian leader visited the headquarters of the Dnipro group of forces in the Kherson direction and the headquarters of the National Guard Vostok.

"The visit of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief can be perceived as a signal that the Russian army is ready to surprise the enemy and that the so-called counteroffensive may turn out to be a trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Yermakov concluded.