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War in Ukraine: what are the prospects at the end of this second winter of conflict?

Ukrainian army soldiers inspect the skies for Russian drones near Bakhmut, April 16, 2023. © Kai Pfaffenbach / REUTERS

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While the winter war announced with a bang by the Russian army has not produced major effects, the Ukrainian army in turn is furnishing its weapons in anticipation of an offensive in the coming weeks. The Foundation for Strategic Research publishes an analysis on the situation of the two armies. For its authors, the Russian army is in a critical situation.

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If there is a battle that illustrates the war of attrition between Ukrainians and Russians, it is Bakhmut. For months, the Russian army and Wagner's mercenaries have been trying to seize this small town in Donbass, which is more of a symbolic than strategic interest. In this tug-of-war Moscow, Moscow conquered only 70 square kilometers in March. A failed offensive, a miserable gain in return for appalling losses, says Philippe Gros, of the Foundation for Strategic Research. "The Russian military faced such a level of loss that it was probably on the verge of collapse in the fall of 2022. Human losses and material losses, which explains why the Kremlin had no choice but to embark on a partial mobilization to simply repot the manpower.

According to the Foundation for Strategic Research, it is possible that the Russian military has lost, whether killed or wounded, nearly half of its 30,000 officers: an army almost without officers. If war decimates the troops, it also wears out the machines. The Russians would have only 2,000 operational armored vehicles in reserve, they have already lost as many, points out Vincent Tourret.

The Russian army "has disappeared

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The Russian army that entered Ukraine a year ago, this army that was supposed to be modernized, which had been able to benefit from ten years of investment by the Russian state, this army, it has disappeared in fact. Functionally and humanly, it has lost its executives, it has lost its equipment and above all, it has lost the coherence and skills that allowed it to make a war of maneuver, insists Vincent Tourret. It no longer has enough potential to break through Ukrainian lines, so it turns the war of attrition into a mechanical war, a brutal war."

Russian artillery is also experiencing a collapse of its capabilities. As a result, they are no longer able to apply their dreaded steamroller, says Philippe Gros. "You have Russian artillery that is totally worn out that has probably spent most of that ammunition and is rationed in its firepower. And we see it in the fighting, in the recriminations of the Russian soldiers, on the lack of support, the lack of precision of their artillery. Once again, the Russians no longer have the capability to execute their tactical concept of fire reconnaissance.

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Towards a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring?

In terms of intelligence, training of soldiers and supplies of weapons, Kiev remains on Western drip. Long-range ammunition, light and heavy tanks converge on eastern Ukraine for a vast spring offensive announced. Will it break the Russian defensive system? There is no certainty, according to Vincent Tourret.

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Ukraine is only winning these victories for now. It inflicts losses that the Russian army has not experienced since -honestly- the Second World War. But we are facing a country, Russia, which really knows how to close the costs and benefits of this war to any form of rational calculation and which has really turned it into an existential conflict. So, we are facing very, very long war prospects, analyzes Vincent Tourret. And for us , it is intimate to really realize that we have re-entered an old army with a new Eastern bloc that is certainly much smaller - for the moment it is only Belarus and Russia - but we are facing a country that only understands its relations with us through the showdown.

In the event of Ukrainian military success, the collapse of Russian power resulting in an armed struggle for succession to the Kremlin is possible, note Philippe Gros and Vincent Tourret. The two researchers indicate that these scenarios of rupture are now openly taken into account in Kiev as in Washington.

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• Ukraine
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