Kiev - 8 months have passed since the start of the battles for the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of southeastern Ukraine, during which Russian forces and units of the Russian "Wagner" group were unable to control it, despite repeated declarations of that control and victories there.
Until recently, the Ukrainian position was consistent with regard to the defense of the city, which has become a broad local address for steadfastness and confrontation and many poems and songs, as the best location to achieve the greatest losses among the Russians, and the most important barrier that prevents them from advancing deep into the Donetsk region, and gives Kiev the opportunity to prepare for a large-scale counterattack.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted on April 5 to the possibility of withdrawing from Bakhmout, noting that "the goal of preserving the lives of the working forces is more important than the goal of holding on to the city."
Are we witnessing a Ukrainian withdrawal soon from Bakhmut? What will be the significance of the conduct of the battles on the fronts of the Donetsk region and elsewhere? Or would the withdrawal be a trap for the Russians to prepare for the counter-operation that Ukraine has been preparing for months?
Withdrawal or victory?
Between commitment to principles and recognition of reality, observers believe that the option of withdrawal or retreat has become on the table in the corridors of Ukraine, even if denied by some officials.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, military analyst Yuri Fedorov says that "after the Ukrainian army began conducting defense and organized counter-operations in the middle of last year, the Ukrainian military leadership is committed to the principle of non-retreat, but withdrawal is only on the table in extreme cases, when there is already a direct threat of encirclement."
"We saw this in the summer in Severodonetsk and Lyschansk in the Lugansk region. War is, first and foremost, a political affair, then a military issue. Therefore, even if it is decided to hold out to the end, the plan to retreat already exists and, if necessary, will be implemented."
Fedorov downplays the Ukrainian retreat, if it happens, saying it would be a political victory for Russia, rather than a military victory.
"Militarily, some sites in Donetsk and Lugansk were supposed to be more important to the Russians than Bakhmot, but the latter became a knot for them, and President Putin ordered their dismantling despite the magnitude of the losses inflicted on his forces," he explains.
"Pakhmut is a trap for the Russians. Its fall will be more symbolic, and it will not open the gate of hell, as it is believed, to the rest of the cities of the Donetsk region. The Russians are exhausted, they don't have enough trained troops and equipment for this purpose easily."
Withdrawal in preparation for the attack
In a related context, Ivan Stupak, a military expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, believes that "there is an objective link between the possibility of the fall of Bakhmout and the start of counter-operations that Ukraine has been preparing for months."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Stupak added that "the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmot was linked to the preparation of those operations, and the retreat may mean that the preparation has been or is nearing completion, and then may be the beginning in favor of Ukraine and not the other way around."
But he pointed out that "the decision to start liberation operations is limited to the heads of only 5 people (members of the so-called Supreme Commander Council, which includes the president, the minister of defense, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the chief of staff and the minister of interior), but all indications indicate that it is near, including success in Bakhmout, or retracting it."
The reality of the situation on the ground
This comes as observers believe that the situation in Bakhmut is now much worse than it was weeks ago.
Rob Lane, an American expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told Forbes, "The circumstances, the importance of the city and the percentage of casualties have changed compared to a month or two ago. Russia was in Bakhmot suffering huge losses at the end of last year."
"The casualty rate has now deteriorated for the Ukrainian military. It was one to 5, or one to 7, which is – maybe – the ratio that was the case throughout the invasion, but now the advantage in favor of the Ukrainians is not great."
"Recently, the Ukrainians have lost control of the city's eastern and northern flanks, and Russian forces have approached supply routes. Pakhmut is a fortified city that is easy to defend thanks to factories and powerful buildings, however, if Russian forces block supply chains, it will be very difficult to keep it."