The limited Israeli response to the rockets fired from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip reflected the Israeli establishment's concerns about a full-scale war with the Palestinian and Arab resistance factions, and carried messages suggesting that the home front in Israel is not ready for a war on several fronts.

According to military and political analysts and national security researchers, the Israeli establishment fears that a broad response, specifically in southern Lebanon, will lead to a comprehensive confrontation leading to the unification of the Lebanese arena with the Gaza and West Bank fronts, which constitutes an achievement for the Palestinian resistance factions, especially Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Analysts and military personnel extrapolate the considerations discussed at the Israeli Security and Political Affairs Cabinet meeting, agreeing that one of the most important considerations was that Israel has no interest in being dragged into a war with Lebanon, because that would turn into a multi-front conflict, so the security establishment recommended a response focused on Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza, and not harming Hezbollah's goals in Lebanon.

This trend was expressed by IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy during the cabinet consultations, where he said that Israel's interest is to keep Hezbollah out of the round of escalation, and predicted that if the Israeli response focuses on Hamas's goals in Lebanon, Hezbollah will not necessarily intervene.


Erosion of deterrence

In this context, Israeli military analyst Amir Boukhbout explained that the Israeli security establishment recognizes that the rocket fire incidents are evidence of the weakness of the Israeli deterrent force, from the point of view of armed organizations and factions, and therefore the security services seek to change this perception and restore the deterrence force to its position.

As for the reasons that led to the Israeli response to be limited in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, the military analyst estimated that none of the parties - especially in Israel - is interested in further escalation and comprehensive confrontation, especially in light of the lack of readiness of the Israeli home front for a war on several fronts.

He pointed out that most ministers in Netanyahu's government have significant gaps in knowledge and experience regarding the Lebanese arena, which is more complex and dangerous than the Gaza Strip, as this fact has had a chilling effect on most ministers who have refrained from proposals for tougher measures against Hezbollah.


Strategic Warning

The same argument was adopted by the military correspondent of the newspaper "Maariv" Tal Lev Ram, who explained that all data and data on events and security tensions on various fronts, were presented to Netanyahu as a strategic warning threatening national security, drafted by Defense Minister Yoav Galant and the heads of the military and intelligence services.

Lev Ram reviewed the reasons and motives for Israel's limited response, attributing this to the willingness of Iran and Hezbollah to escalate in the face of attacks attributed to Israel in Syria, the erosion of deterrence following the internal crisis in Israel, the escalation of tension on the Gaza front, the fear of escalating resistance in the West Bank and Jerusalem during the Ramadan, as well as the cooling in relations with the United States.

The military correspondent believes that until the restoration of deterrence, the limits of the Israeli response to any attacks by Hezbollah will remain limited and limited to the Syrian arena, where Israel will escalate targeting important Hezbollah and Iranian targets on Syrian territory.


Security tensions

In light of these developments and the escalation of security tensions on various fronts, the assessment of the position of the Center for National Security Research of Tel Aviv University confirmed that Israel faces a range of serious threats to its national security, as widespread public protests against the plan to reform the judiciary are escalating.

According to the think tank's estimates, security threats to Israel have intensified recently, as there has been a rise in the threat posed by Iran, which has in fact become a state on a nuclear threshold, at the same time Iran is deepening its regional influence, while consolidating its relations with its Gulf neighbors, sponsored by China.

Israel's security and military services have long faced an escalation in the Palestinian arena, on the Gaza front, where armed resistance is escalating in the West Bank and security tensions in Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa in Ramadan, while Hezbollah is exhibiting more aggressive behavior, suggesting that deterrence towards it may be eroded.


Israeli crack

Political analyst Akiva Eldar said that the firing of rockets from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon towards Israel proves that Israeli deterrence has diminished, noting that recent events prove the concerns and fears even at the political level about the erosion of Israel's deterrence power.

It is believed that the rift in Israeli society, which reached the military institution as a result of the escalation of protests, formed part of the fears that dominated the decision of the Netanyahu government, which faces a crisis of confidence among Israelis about the nature of the response, keeping it limited and not being drawn into an all-out war that would cause the fall of the Netanyahu government.

The political analyst said that Netanyahu has turned into a hostage to the blackmails of the government coalition, especially the "Religious Zionism" coalition headed by Minister Bezalel Schmotrich, and the "Jewish Power" party headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, noting that he may use the events of Al-Aqsa and the limited attacks on southern Lebanon and Gaza in order to divert attention from the internal crises.

Speaking to Giza Net, the political analyst confirmed that Netanyahu is looking through any limited escalation for a lifeline for his government, and to avoid the repercussions of the protests that are widening in the Israeli street against the plan to reform the judiciary.

In response to a question: Why did Netanyahu's government deliberately escalate in Al-Aqsa despite repeated warnings against resistance in Palestine and Lebanon? Eldar said that "the Netanyahu government has sought to export its internal crises that threaten its durability and threaten its disintegration."