Dr. Ariel Levitt, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has undermined the alliance with the United States, eroded relations with Gulf states, and drastically reduced the motivation of Israelis to serve, three important factors to stop Iran's transition to a nuclear state.
Levitt, a former deputy director general for policy at the Israel Atomic Energy Authority, explained in an article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that Netanyahu, who made eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat his life mission, was the one who pushed former US President Donald Trump to withdraw in 2018 from the nuclear deal with Tehran, thus untying restrictions that limited the amount of enriched uranium that Iran could accumulate, as well as its use of advanced centrifuges.
Netanyahu's Illusion of Trump
Netanyahu agreed with Trump's illusion that new U.S. sanctions would distance Iran from its aspiration to become a nuclear state, but the exact opposite happened.
The IAEA inspection regime has eroded, and Iran now has more nuclear facilities and more infrastructure and know-how, allowing it to quickly reconfigure the program if damaged. Israel's ability to take action against the program is deteriorating, and Tehran is closer than ever to acquiring nuclear weapons.
Three ways to undermine remaining opportunities
In three different ways, Netanyahu is likely to undermine the remaining chances of stopping Iran before it gets nuclear weapons:
First, move away from an alliance with the United States and cooperation with the administration of President Joe Biden, without which Israel cannot have a credible military option against Iran's active and geographically distant nuclear program.
Second, Netanyahu has eroded relations with Israel's Gulf partners, whose coalition partnership is essential to any serious action against Iran.
Third, Netanyahu has created an internal rift in Israel, which significantly reduces motivation to serve and thus weakens the operational fitness of the army.
Israel Will Lose the Double World Standard
Until today, the world has been willing to apply a double standard to reconcile with Israel's nuclear program, and even defend it diplomatically, while rejecting such a program for countries like Iran (and in the past for Syria and Iraq).
This readiness was based on two things: First, the serious threat to regional and even world peace comes from Iran, and is directed against Israel. Second, Israel is a responsible democracy with an evolving system of checks and balances, but the judicial reform being contemplated could undermine these principles.